MarkSC Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Also note that GFS shows a WSW movement for a time, which I believe historically is correlated with a higher likelihood of landfall from a Cape Verde system. GFS has been pretty good this year and is persistent with this one, so it will be worth watching next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's near insane to think that a tropical wave can go so far west for exiting north of the CV islands. I've only seen a handful of tropical cyclones in history that have been able to exit north of Senegal and actually develop. Ignoring the imminent MA landfall at the end of the post-truncation fantasy phase of the 12Z GFS, sort of, through Hour 192, the wave, potential Gordon, that would come off Africa in about 4 days, would cruise almost due West despite being near 20ºN latitude through its first four days offshore. I actually was thinking that, but so far this year, tropics wise, the GFS running full wave number hasn't been crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's near insane to think that a tropical wave can go so far west for exiting north of the CV islands. I've only seen a handful of tropical cyclones in history that have been able to exit north of Senegal and actually develop. This is a good point that you make; such developements are rare and Hurricane Isabel comes to mind; but it's not an ideal analog by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 A few of the global seem to do a little bit now with the wave SE of Florence (at 20W, NOT the GFS uberstorm which is the following wave, still over Africa) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Does this count? "Arctic Ocean Hurricane?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 "GFS Uberwave" looking good at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 A few of the global seem to do a little bit now with the wave SE of Florence (at 20W, NOT the GFS uberstorm which is the following wave, still over Africa) The 8PM TWO has Limoned this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 im not surprised. it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 im not surprised. it looks pretty good. Invest 92L is up for it. Actually drops down to 10N eventually but SHIPS shows steady strengthening. This is my favoritest INVEST of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 this might just stay just below the dust cloud and i expect the cloud to disperse next week. could be a surprise storm. by the way, florence's remains have a few storms again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 GFS just shows another fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 this might just stay just below the dust cloud and i expect the cloud to disperse next week. could be a surprise storm. by the way, florence's remains have a few storms again. Was just looking at that quite the fair up for a system that was to have no flair ups. could be interesting to watch overnight as models did nothing with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 GFS just shows another fish. The GFS doesn't depict 92L at all. The GFS "fish" is still over Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Was just looking at that quite the fair up for a system that was to have no flair ups. could be interesting to watch overnight as models did nothing with this. That's only going to help it fish though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That's only going to help it fish though. Basically but if it was to form enough to be renamed would it be named Florence again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 yes it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 For what we care, which is little, but tonights 00z GFS shows up with ridge of death and basically no tropical value except way out in lala land, which would recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This thread has been pretty terrible for the last 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This thread has been pretty terrible for the last 24 hours i can post and really make it suck eggs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This thread has been pretty terrible for the last 24 hours but we all need to 'gasm over 384 GFS uberwaves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Posted for the sake of continuity; and also because I was offended by Ed's sarcastic remarks. The tropical wave that spawns Gordon is well out into the Atlantic before Truncation. It's not something that is likely to happen but I do believe there will be a real landfall threat (anywhere in the conus). Nothing personal, I understand the temptation to post 16 day East Coast Megastorms little more than two weeks away. You will note, 384 hour GFS giveth, 384 hour GFS taketh away. But potential Cat 7 Delaware Destroyer Gordon looking good over Africa, so don't give up hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The 12Z GFS looks like it may have a classic long tracking CV storm that threatens W ATL land. It has what looks like a TS already by Friday (day 3) near the CV's, which moves due west and may even have some WSW movement. Let's see what the rest of the run does with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The "Senegal Screamer"TM actually moves WSW and straight west through the EATL-CATL on the 12z GFS. I'd like to see a much more impressive consensus, but this whole thing could be plausible (with some minor tweaking) Also the 12z GFS makes it a decent tropical cyclone by 180 hours. Not liking the apparent weakness off of the east coast, but we'll deal with that in the future. "Pouch Dude" already marked this up east of the PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The "Senegal Screamer"TM actually moves WSW and straight west through the EATL-CATL on the 12z GFS. I'd like to see a much more impressive consensus, but this whole thing could be plausible (with some minor tweaking) Also the 12z GFS makes it a decent tropical cyclone by 180 hours. Not liking the apparent weakness off of the east coast, but we'll deal with that in the future. "Pouch Dude" already marked this up east of the PM The "Senegal Screamer"TM gives a pretty direct hit on Bermuda on 8/20 before missing Cape Cod by only ~150 miles on 8/22 as it recurves. The point of us posting about this is that the GFS has it as practically a TS in just three days from now and it has W to maybe even WSW motion from the time it leaves Africa and for a number of days afterward, which is the kind of CV storm track about which to be extra wary based on historical tracks (although El Nino climo makes it tougher than average for one of these to make it all the way across.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The GFS brought "gordon crusher" back after keeping it weak since 0z last night; that's a good sign for at least some developement. Once again, the GFS barely manages a recurve but it's long-range and the WSW movement early is a cause for concern. Considering the upstream patterns, this could go in many different directions but it seems since it begins at an obnoxiously high laditude when crossing into the Atlantic; it argues more strongly for a tropical cyclone that does not affect the carribean but is instead exclusively a threat to Florida or the East Coast. As mentioned many times, the possible WSW movement is cause for concern and increases the probability of landfall. The upcoming week will feature lower pressures and near average temperatures over Eastern North America and there are indications that this pattern will change as potential Gordon is approaching the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The upcoming week will feature lower pressures and near average temperatures over Eastern North America and there are indications that this pattern will change as potential Gordon is approaching the conus. Naming things before their time is a really bad and confusing idea. INVEST 92L could beat P13L (in the absence of any other designation, we have to go with "Pouch Guy") to "Gordon" status. One thing about P13L is that it has already lost a lot of latitude over Africa already, looking at EUMETSAT loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Naming things before their time is a really bad and confusing idea. INVEST 92L could beat P13L (in the absence of any other designation, we have to go with "Pouch Guy") to "Gordon" status. One thing about P13L is that it has already lost a lot of latitude over Africa already, looking at EUMETSAT loops. Pretty strongly agree with this, especially since we have pouch designations in the Atlantic. Let's try to be cognizant of naming conventions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Naming things before their time is a really bad and confusing idea. INVEST 92L could beat P13L (in the absence of any other designation, we have to go with "Pouch Guy") to "Gordon" status. One thing about P13L is that it has already lost a lot of latitude over Africa already, looking at EUMETSAT loops. Good point, it's interesting to note that 92L does not have any model support; reminds me of Florence in a sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 FWIW, 12Z GFDL does take 92L down to about a 1000 mb TS with 40-50 kt winds for days 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.