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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


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Oh, wow. I didn't realize the regional threads were already bugging out about this. And I was just thinking that everyone was being so calm about this.

I love seeing people burned by the idiotic practice of using a storm name before it actually gets named, and something else sneaking in.

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A little more history-- for context:

East Coast majors in October are extremely rare. Of course we all know about Hazel 1954, which came ashore near the SC/NC border with winds of ~115 kt (low-end Cat 4), and then smashed the I95 population centers as a very powerful extratropical cyclone.

Before Hazel, you have to go way back to the 1890s for more examples of October East Coast majors: a Cat 3 (105 kt) in SC in 1893 and a Cat 4 (115 kt) in GA in 1898.

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It would be interesting to see a cyclone of tropical origin affect the Northeast USA in late-October.

While it hasn't happened in a long time, the latter half of the 19th century saw several October hurricane impacts in the USA N of the Carolinas: 1869, 1878, 1893, and 1894.

And none of the tropical cyclones you mentioned (including the famous 1869 Saxby Gale) made landfall later than 23 October--the median date of landfall was around 12 October, more than two weeks earlier than when 99L is supposed to be impacting the CONUS. The Saxby Gale hit on 04 October 1868, the 1878 hurricane on 23 October, the 1893 hurricane on 13 October, and the 1894 hurricane on 10 October. And of course, major impacts, and even non-major hurricane cases like Gloria 1985 or Belle 1976, N of the Carolinas are simply rare...period--certainly compared to the historical cases in places S of NC.

Partially because such a major impact--whether as a hurricane or as a Hazel-like phase--is so rare, and partially because there are uncertainties in the track, if a scenario as depicted by some of the models were to verify, I would argue that a major or non-major S-FL hurricane impact, on or before 25 October, would be historically more probable than a hurricane hitting the Carolinas and the Northeast. Even pre-1851 cases like the 1804 Snow-Hurricane occurred well before 25 October...so the models are showing something almost unprecedented (for the Carolinas and the Northeast, save in my 1899 example) so late in the season.

I an still sticking to either 1) a S-FL hit near Miami or 2) a much weaker impact N of FL than currently shown. Unlike the Carolinas and the Northeast, S FL--and, almost exclusively, FL in general--does have a history of late impacts: Wilma (24 October 2005) and the Yankee hurricane (04 November 1935), to name a few (and Tampa Bay, 25 October 1921, and Kate, 21 November 1985, statewide).

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Euro is very interesting. Keeps it offshore until 204, then big time phase with NYC area landfall then NW into PA as it is captured by a massive upper low. Tons of rain even before landfall, this would be a pretty big deal even it it is not a major, a ton of flooding, (10" in eastern NC on the model) a lot of coastal erosion etc etc.

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Euro is very interesting. Keeps it offshore until 204, then big time phase with NYC area landfall then NW into PA as it is captured by a massive upper low. Tons of rain even before landfall, this would be a pretty big deal even it it is not a major, a ton of flooding, (10" in eastern NC on the model) a lot of coastal erosion etc etc.

The track is just bizarre-- a zigzaggy kind of deal. It seems to get very close to the FL coast, then veer out to sea, then dive hard toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Freak show.

Whatever it is, it looks huge and powerful in the higher latitudes (N of 35N).

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There's such a small amount of research and history available on phasing hurricanes like these, I have to wonder if the models understand the scenario. Do the programmers truly understand the scenario?

Ne3kf.gif

^ Hazel. That looks an awful lot like what the CMC and Euro, and one of the two main GFS runs, have produced today. 5/6... the 00z GFS with its' "normal" solution is the outlier.

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Just in from HPC..... If you read between the lines they think the Canadian ridge will block whatever forms in the tropics and send it toward New England at the very least.

COMPARISON OF OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO EACH OTHER AND

ENSEMBLES LEADS TO REMOVAL OF TWO SOLNS FROM CONSIDERATION FOR

THIS FCST. FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE 00Z RUN THE GFS AMPLIFIES A

WRN CANADA TROF INTO THE NRN CONUS BY DAY 6 SUN IN DIRECT CONTRAST

TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN RIDGE... LEADING TO AN EXCESSIVELY FLAT

OVERALL CONUS PATTERN THEREAFTER AND ULTIMATELY AN EXTREME EWD

SOLN FOR THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM. MEANWHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN BUILDS

THE ERN PAC RIDGE INTO WRN NOAM TOO QUICKLY AND SIMILAR TO YDAYS

00Z RUN SHOWS AN OUTLIER SEWD/DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM

CONUS TROF. THIS CAUSES THE CMC TO PULL THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM INTO

THE GRTLKS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF OR SLOWER 00Z ECMWF. DEEP

TROFS ARE A COMMON BIAS IN THE CMC SO ITS ERN CONUS EVOLUTION IS

DISCOUNTED SO FAR. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE RIDGE BUILDING

OVER/NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY INCREASE

POTENTIAL FOR FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLC TO BE TURNED NWWD AROUND OR

AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

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There's such a small amount of research and history available on phasing hurricanes like these, I have to wonder if the models understand the scenario. Do the programmers truly understand the scenario?

Actually, the models don't solve for a particular weather event or scenario. They simply solve the equations of motion (with a number of simplifications, scale analysis, etc) on a gridpoint-by-gridpoint basis without caring about the "big picture".

Of course large scale processes force the small scales, but that information can be quantized over individual gridpoints (the net circulation is the average of the vorticity enclosed, the net divergence is the average of the divergence enclosed, etc).

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000

WTNT34 KNHC 222033

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012

500 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE DAY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.3N 51.7W

ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

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Not to be a nitpick, but I don't think it was a landfall. The center did not pass over any of the Azores, if I remember correctly.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al08/al082012.update.08200634.shtml?

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE GORDON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012

230 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

...GORDON MAKES LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN

AZORES...

AT AROUND 130 AM AST...0530 UTC...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON MADE LANDFALL

ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES.

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http://www.nhc.noaa....08200634.shtml?

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE GORDON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012

230 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

...GORDON MAKES LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN

AZORES...

AT AROUND 130 AM AST...0530 UTC...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON MADE LANDFALL

ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES.

Omg-- I totally missed that. I thought it missed all the islands. Oooooops. (I guess you can tell I wasn't exactly following that one too closely. I was all :sleepy:.) Thanks for correcting the record-- I will add this to the list.

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Omg-- I totally missed that. I thought it missed all the islands. Oooooops. (I guess you can tell I wasn't exactly following that one too closely. I was all.) Thanks for correcting the record-- I will add this to the list.

You might also add that Gordon is only the third recorded hurricane on record to directly make landfall on one of the Azores--Storm #8 (1926) and Hurricane Hanna 1959 are the others (both Category 2).

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