Amped Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Almnost every mesoscale and global model has a 975mb over the bahamas @ 126hrs. Unusually low spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Bastardi is getting all "juiced up" for the potential system already. Haven't seem him post this much in a while. 12z HWRF is game for a large system in the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Fantastic agreement thru 108hrs on the tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Full moon 29th (20z) adds storm surge potential to scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Oh, wow. I didn't realize the regional threads were already bugging out about this. And I was just thinking that everyone was being so calm about this. I love seeing people burned by the idiotic practice of using a storm name before it actually gets named, and something else sneaking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 GFS out to 108hr, strengthening over the Bahamas EDIT: Down to 986mb at 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 A little more history-- for context: East Coast majors in October are extremely rare. Of course we all know about Hazel 1954, which came ashore near the SC/NC border with winds of ~115 kt (low-end Cat 4), and then smashed the I95 population centers as a very powerful extratropical cyclone. Before Hazel, you have to go way back to the 1890s for more examples of October East Coast majors: a Cat 3 (105 kt) in SC in 1893 and a Cat 4 (115 kt) in GA in 1898. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 18z GFS says fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 18z GFS says fish. those weird fish that walk on land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It would be interesting to see a cyclone of tropical origin affect the Northeast USA in late-October. While it hasn't happened in a long time, the latter half of the 19th century saw several October hurricane impacts in the USA N of the Carolinas: 1869, 1878, 1893, and 1894. And none of the tropical cyclones you mentioned (including the famous 1869 Saxby Gale) made landfall later than 23 October--the median date of landfall was around 12 October, more than two weeks earlier than when 99L is supposed to be impacting the CONUS. The Saxby Gale hit on 04 October 1868, the 1878 hurricane on 23 October, the 1893 hurricane on 13 October, and the 1894 hurricane on 10 October. And of course, major impacts, and even non-major hurricane cases like Gloria 1985 or Belle 1976, N of the Carolinas are simply rare...period--certainly compared to the historical cases in places S of NC. Partially because such a major impact--whether as a hurricane or as a Hazel-like phase--is so rare, and partially because there are uncertainties in the track, if a scenario as depicted by some of the models were to verify, I would argue that a major or non-major S-FL hurricane impact, on or before 25 October, would be historically more probable than a hurricane hitting the Carolinas and the Northeast. Even pre-1851 cases like the 1804 Snow-Hurricane occurred well before 25 October...so the models are showing something almost unprecedented (for the Carolinas and the Northeast, save in my 1899 example) so late in the season. I an still sticking to either 1) a S-FL hit near Miami or 2) a much weaker impact N of FL than currently shown. Unlike the Carolinas and the Northeast, S FL--and, almost exclusively, FL in general--does have a history of late impacts: Wilma (24 October 2005) and the Yankee hurricane (04 November 1935), to name a few (and Tampa Bay, 25 October 1921, and Kate, 21 November 1985, statewide). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is very interesting. Keeps it offshore until 204, then big time phase with NYC area landfall then NW into PA as it is captured by a massive upper low. Tons of rain even before landfall, this would be a pretty big deal even it it is not a major, a ton of flooding, (10" in eastern NC on the model) a lot of coastal erosion etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is very interesting. Keeps it offshore until 204, then big time phase with NYC area landfall then NW into PA as it is captured by a massive upper low. Tons of rain even before landfall, this would be a pretty big deal even it it is not a major, a ton of flooding, (10" in eastern NC on the model) a lot of coastal erosion etc etc. The track is just bizarre-- a zigzaggy kind of deal. It seems to get very close to the FL coast, then veer out to sea, then dive hard toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Freak show. Whatever it is, it looks huge and powerful in the higher latitudes (N of 35N). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 looking a bit better this AM. :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 There's such a small amount of research and history available on phasing hurricanes like these, I have to wonder if the models understand the scenario. Do the programmers truly understand the scenario? ^ Hazel. That looks an awful lot like what the CMC and Euro, and one of the two main GFS runs, have produced today. 5/6... the 00z GFS with its' "normal" solution is the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Just in from HPC..... If you read between the lines they think the Canadian ridge will block whatever forms in the tropics and send it toward New England at the very least. COMPARISON OF OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO EACH OTHER AND ENSEMBLES LEADS TO REMOVAL OF TWO SOLNS FROM CONSIDERATION FOR THIS FCST. FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE 00Z RUN THE GFS AMPLIFIES A WRN CANADA TROF INTO THE NRN CONUS BY DAY 6 SUN IN DIRECT CONTRAST TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN RIDGE... LEADING TO AN EXCESSIVELY FLAT OVERALL CONUS PATTERN THEREAFTER AND ULTIMATELY AN EXTREME EWD SOLN FOR THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM. MEANWHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN BUILDS THE ERN PAC RIDGE INTO WRN NOAM TOO QUICKLY AND SIMILAR TO YDAYS 00Z RUN SHOWS AN OUTLIER SEWD/DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM CONUS TROF. THIS CAUSES THE CMC TO PULL THE WRN ATLC SYSTEM INTO THE GRTLKS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF OR SLOWER 00Z ECMWF. DEEP TROFS ARE A COMMON BIAS IN THE CMC SO ITS ERN CONUS EVOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED SO FAR. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER/NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLC TO BE TURNED NWWD AROUND OR AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 There's such a small amount of research and history available on phasing hurricanes like these, I have to wonder if the models understand the scenario. Do the programmers truly understand the scenario? Actually, the models don't solve for a particular weather event or scenario. They simply solve the equations of motion (with a number of simplifications, scale analysis, etc) on a gridpoint-by-gridpoint basis without caring about the "big picture". Of course large scale processes force the small scales, but that information can be quantized over individual gridpoints (the net circulation is the average of the vorticity enclosed, the net divergence is the average of the divergence enclosed, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I wrote up a discussion this morning discussing future Sandy and also some Hazel graphics. FOr those that are interested http://www.examiner.com/article/historic-storm-possible-early-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 90L should get an upgrade @ 5pm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 We now have Tropical Depression 19 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 500 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012 ...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE DAY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 51.7W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 This year's 'cane landfalls. Kinda blah: Ernesto (MX) - 80 kt* Isaac (LA) - 70 kt Sandy (JM) - 70 kt * It was operationally 75 kt-- however, the NHC is likely going to up it a bit in postanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This year's 'cane landfalls. Kinda blah: Ernesto (MX) - 80 kt* Isaac (LA) - 70 kt Sandy (JM) - 70 kt * It was operationally 75 kt-- however, the NHC is likely going to up it a bit in postanalysis. Sandy and Cuba the big winner, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy and Cuba the big winner, it appears. You would be... correct!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We also had Gordon at 65kt on Santa Maria Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 We also had Gordon at 65kt on Santa Maria Island. Not to be a nitpick, but I don't think it was a landfall. The center did not pass over any of the Azores, if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Revised list of this year's 'cane landfalls. Sandy's Cuba landfall was definitely the hawtest: Ernesto (MX) - 80 kt* Gordon (PT) - 65 kt Isaac (LA) - 70 kt Sandy (JM) - 70 kt Sandy (CU) - 95 kt * It was operationally 75 kt-- however, the NHC is likely going to up it a bit in postanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not to be a nitpick, but I don't think it was a landfall. The center did not pass over any of the Azores, if I remember correctly. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al08/al082012.update.08200634.shtml? ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GORDON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 230 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012 ...GORDON MAKES LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES... AT AROUND 130 AM AST...0530 UTC...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON MADE LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.nhc.noaa....08200634.shtml? ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GORDON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 230 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012 ...GORDON MAKES LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES... AT AROUND 130 AM AST...0530 UTC...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON MADE LANDFALL ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN AZORES. Omg-- I totally missed that. I thought it missed all the islands. Oooooops. (I guess you can tell I wasn't exactly following that one too closely. I was all .) Thanks for correcting the record-- I will add this to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Omg-- I totally missed that. I thought it missed all the islands. Oooooops. (I guess you can tell I wasn't exactly following that one too closely. I was all.) Thanks for correcting the record-- I will add this to the list. You might also add that Gordon is only the third recorded hurricane on record to directly make landfall on one of the Azores--Storm #8 (1926) and Hurricane Hanna 1959 are the others (both Category 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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