Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


Recommended Posts

:D

Sorry-- I know I'm a bit touchy these days. I'm still trying to process the fact that this sh*t season is ending without a climax (unless 99L really does something nutty, which it won't).

It's already got a better structure than Nicole ever had, so I'm thinking we'll have something better than Nicole. Anything is better than Nicole, but considering that this thing had a real shot at never being anything more than another Nicole - this is a good sign! :thumbsup:

I think the Hazel-blizzard suggestions are insanity though. Ain't nothing but a CMC wet dream. Would be just a CMC wet dream in 2005 too....

I'm having a tough time figuring 99L out but my guess would be something similar to Rafael, just farther west. I don't think it affects the East Coast beyond beach erosion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It's already got a better structure than Nicole ever had, so I'm thinking we'll have something better than Nicole. Anything is better than Nicole, but considering that this thing had a real shot at never being anything more than another Nicole - this is a good sign! :thumbsup:

I think the Hazel-blizzard suggestions are insanity though. Ain't nothing but a CMC wet dream. Would be just a CMC wet dream in 2005 too....

I'm having a tough time figuring 99L out but my guess would be something similar to Rafael, just farther west. I don't think it affects the East Coast beyond beach erosion.

But if it stays offshore, I don't care how well-organized it is. I don't care if it's 880 mb. It's more fish bullsh*t. I can watch fish in the WPAC. Big whoop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still thinking this ends up being a gyre like circulation over a well organized TC circulation. My rationale is that the llc that developed yesterday is just starting to interact with the monsoon trough located over Central America. A good comparison to a possible evolution is what happened with Thomas (2010) where as a the descrete llc interacted with the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean and the storm remained poorly organized despite improving upper level conditions. I think we see a very similar evolution while the storm is in the caribbean.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still thinking this ends up being a gyre like circulation over a well organized TC circulation. My rationale is that the llc that developed yesterday is just starting to interact with the monsoon trough located over Central America. A good comparison to a possible evolution is what happened with Thomas (2010) where as a the descrete llc interacted with the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean and the storm remained poorly organized despite improving upper level conditions. I think we see a very similar evolution while the storm is in the caribbean.

Yep. And the Canadian is clearly an outlier... ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's currently less organized than yesterday as a consequence of 20+kt westerly shear currently affecting the system. Low level turning is currently almost south of Jamaica, with most of the convection well east. A brief jog to the WSW might commence today, which would put it under better upper level conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

An interesting parallel to the Hazel-like solution shown by the models is Storm #9 of 1899. It formed in the same region and time frame as that of 99L and made a strong (95-kt) landfall in SC on 31 October. It also clearly underwent some type of warm-seclusion development based upon the intensification over the Gulf Stream. So there is an interesting precedent behind the models. Given the trend toward stronger ridging and a slower, weaker 99L in the short term, I think the likelihood of a threat to either S FL or the Southeast is increasing.

track.gif

Reanalysis of the 1899 hurricane

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, wow. I didn't realize the regional threads were already bugging out about this. And I was just thinking that everyone was being so calm about this.

Lol, all three major models showing a possible epic and you don't expect those forums to be going nuts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...