somethingfunny Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Sorry-- I know I'm a bit touchy these days. I'm still trying to process the fact that this sh*t season is ending without a climax (unless 99L really does something nutty, which it won't). It's already got a better structure than Nicole ever had, so I'm thinking we'll have something better than Nicole. Anything is better than Nicole, but considering that this thing had a real shot at never being anything more than another Nicole - this is a good sign! I think the Hazel-blizzard suggestions are insanity though. Ain't nothing but a CMC wet dream. Would be just a CMC wet dream in 2005 too.... I'm having a tough time figuring 99L out but my guess would be something similar to Rafael, just farther west. I don't think it affects the East Coast beyond beach erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's already got a better structure than Nicole ever had, so I'm thinking we'll have something better than Nicole. Anything is better than Nicole, but considering that this thing had a real shot at never being anything more than another Nicole - this is a good sign! I think the Hazel-blizzard suggestions are insanity though. Ain't nothing but a CMC wet dream. Would be just a CMC wet dream in 2005 too.... I'm having a tough time figuring 99L out but my guess would be something similar to Rafael, just farther west. I don't think it affects the East Coast beyond beach erosion. But if it stays offshore, I don't care how well-organized it is. I don't care if it's 880 mb. It's more fish bullsh*t. I can watch fish in the WPAC. Big whoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 But if it stays offshore, I don't care how well-organized it is. I don't care if it's 880 mb. It's more fish bullsh*t. I can watch fish in the WPAC. Big whoop. You are losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I am rooting for the Canadian to finally be correct on a cyclone. Sunrise in the Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'm still thinking this ends up being a gyre like circulation over a well organized TC circulation. My rationale is that the llc that developed yesterday is just starting to interact with the monsoon trough located over Central America. A good comparison to a possible evolution is what happened with Thomas (2010) where as a the descrete llc interacted with the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean and the storm remained poorly organized despite improving upper level conditions. I think we see a very similar evolution while the storm is in the caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'm still thinking this ends up being a gyre like circulation over a well organized TC circulation. My rationale is that the llc that developed yesterday is just starting to interact with the monsoon trough located over Central America. A good comparison to a possible evolution is what happened with Thomas (2010) where as a the descrete llc interacted with the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean and the storm remained poorly organized despite improving upper level conditions. I think we see a very similar evolution while the storm is in the caribbean. Yep. And the Canadian is clearly an outlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's currently less organized than yesterday as a consequence of 20+kt westerly shear currently affecting the system. Low level turning is currently almost south of Jamaica, with most of the convection well east. A brief jog to the WSW might commence today, which would put it under better upper level conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 An interesting parallel to the Hazel-like solution shown by the models is Storm #9 of 1899. It formed in the same region and time frame as that of 99L and made a strong (95-kt) landfall in SC on 31 October. It also clearly underwent some type of warm-seclusion development based upon the intensification over the Gulf Stream. So there is an interesting precedent behind the models. Given the trend toward stronger ridging and a slower, weaker 99L in the short term, I think the likelihood of a threat to either S FL or the Southeast is increasing. Reanalysis of the 1899 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 00z CMC has a major phase with the Trof and the end result is some sort of apocalyptic hybrid-bomb over the DC area. This is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z GFS That looks familiar 12z GFS Bombs the "Halloween Hybrid"TM to 958 mbs. Amazing to watch the system transition after the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It would test the AmericanWx servers to their utmost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 FWIW (Not Much) the 12 Z NOGAPS actually has the system pass over Miami, then back out to sea, but then is coming back to the Mid-Atlantic at 180 hours like the GFS. Much weirdness is afoot, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z GGEM is offshore, but a second low over Erie PA would cause quite a strong onshore flow. Alomost a MillerBicane setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Recon was scrubbed for this afternoon. Really just a large area of turning with associated convection on the South and East fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks absolutely terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro showing the possibility as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I am definitely becoming concerned with the full phasing scenario. It has certainly been gaining traction. 12z Euro is nasty looking especially NC north. I have been and will be posting updates as I look at models etc on twitter if you are interested. @RaleighWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 All major global models on board for the possibility of one heck of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 12z Euro. Full phase, watch out NE! 144 168 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 schweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 a decent track /partial "linkage", it's a miss. hopefully the models don't trend the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 You are losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 It would be interesting to see a cyclone of tropical origin affect the Northeast USA in late-October. While it hasn't happened in a long time, the latter half of the 19th century saw several October hurricane impacts in the USA N of the Carolinas: 1869, 1878, 1893, and 1894. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 1804 snow hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Going to be funny to see the NE threads have to change their titles from Sandy to Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks absolutely terrible. Everyone can decide that for themselves. I see a distinct surface low forming with a large area of westerlies to the south. But I'm a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 99L 18Z Tracks and Intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Going to be funny to see the NE threads have to change their titles from Sandy to Tony Oh, wow. I didn't realize the regional threads were already bugging out about this. And I was just thinking that everyone was being so calm about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Oh, wow. I didn't realize the regional threads were already bugging out about this. And I was just thinking that everyone was being so calm about this. Lol, all three major models showing a possible epic and you don't expect those forums to be going nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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