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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


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:D

Sorry-- I know I'm a bit touchy these days. I'm still trying to process the fact that this sh*t season is ending without a climax (unless 99L really does something nutty, which it won't).

It's already got a better structure than Nicole ever had, so I'm thinking we'll have something better than Nicole. Anything is better than Nicole, but considering that this thing had a real shot at never being anything more than another Nicole - this is a good sign! :thumbsup:

I think the Hazel-blizzard suggestions are insanity though. Ain't nothing but a CMC wet dream. Would be just a CMC wet dream in 2005 too....

I'm having a tough time figuring 99L out but my guess would be something similar to Rafael, just farther west. I don't think it affects the East Coast beyond beach erosion.

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It's already got a better structure than Nicole ever had, so I'm thinking we'll have something better than Nicole. Anything is better than Nicole, but considering that this thing had a real shot at never being anything more than another Nicole - this is a good sign! :thumbsup:

I think the Hazel-blizzard suggestions are insanity though. Ain't nothing but a CMC wet dream. Would be just a CMC wet dream in 2005 too....

I'm having a tough time figuring 99L out but my guess would be something similar to Rafael, just farther west. I don't think it affects the East Coast beyond beach erosion.

But if it stays offshore, I don't care how well-organized it is. I don't care if it's 880 mb. It's more fish bullsh*t. I can watch fish in the WPAC. Big whoop.

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I'm still thinking this ends up being a gyre like circulation over a well organized TC circulation. My rationale is that the llc that developed yesterday is just starting to interact with the monsoon trough located over Central America. A good comparison to a possible evolution is what happened with Thomas (2010) where as a the descrete llc interacted with the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean and the storm remained poorly organized despite improving upper level conditions. I think we see a very similar evolution while the storm is in the caribbean.

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I'm still thinking this ends up being a gyre like circulation over a well organized TC circulation. My rationale is that the llc that developed yesterday is just starting to interact with the monsoon trough located over Central America. A good comparison to a possible evolution is what happened with Thomas (2010) where as a the descrete llc interacted with the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean and the storm remained poorly organized despite improving upper level conditions. I think we see a very similar evolution while the storm is in the caribbean.

Yep. And the Canadian is clearly an outlier... ;)

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It's currently less organized than yesterday as a consequence of 20+kt westerly shear currently affecting the system. Low level turning is currently almost south of Jamaica, with most of the convection well east. A brief jog to the WSW might commence today, which would put it under better upper level conditions.

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An interesting parallel to the Hazel-like solution shown by the models is Storm #9 of 1899. It formed in the same region and time frame as that of 99L and made a strong (95-kt) landfall in SC on 31 October. It also clearly underwent some type of warm-seclusion development based upon the intensification over the Gulf Stream. So there is an interesting precedent behind the models. Given the trend toward stronger ridging and a slower, weaker 99L in the short term, I think the likelihood of a threat to either S FL or the Southeast is increasing.

track.gif

Reanalysis of the 1899 hurricane

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Oh, wow. I didn't realize the regional threads were already bugging out about this. And I was just thinking that everyone was being so calm about this.

Lol, all three major models showing a possible epic and you don't expect those forums to be going nuts?

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