U_Thant Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Be nice if the 12Z Euro verified. If that verifies, I'll be hosting the first annual "U_Thant Lightweight Deck Chair Flying Contest" down at Melbourne Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 If that verifies, I'll be hosting the first annual "U_Thant Lightweight Deck Chair Flying Contest" down at Melbourne Beach. ECMWF site showing about 50 knots at 850 mb over MLB, I suspect there could be some beach erosion and dangerous rip tides. OT- 29 years ago when I lived in 32813 I went to ECFLA and purchased a souvenir Ron Jon's t-shirt. I don't know where that shirt is anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Not drinking the Op Euro Kool-Aid yet. It is a pretty big outlier: Need to see a lot more model confirmation to get excited about a US threat. Do think we eventually get a TC down there, but beyond that, too many ifs and buts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Not drinking the Op Euro Kool-Aid yet. It is a pretty big outlier: Need to see a lot more model confirmation to get excited about a US threat. Do think we eventually get a TC down there, but beyond that, too many ifs and buts. I think the Euro ensemble mean is East of the op, although I don't quite understand whether the shading is standard deviation from normal or a like the shading on the NCEP GFS ensemble means showing areas of max divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Pure wishcasting from 240 hour Euro, Hurricane Sandy gets captured by the polar trough, and produced multi-day Halloween Storm Part Deux for the SNE subforum that people will make movies about. Much better than yesterday's 12Z moderate tropical storm for Florida. So much better. I hope I'm not 5 posted for a month for this... ETA Just checked SNE subforum banter thread, and I'm not the only person in Weenie Wonderland http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Hurricane_of_1804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 What do you guys think of the wave at ~50W? here is today's 2:05pm TWD: TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W TO 13N52W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AS INDICATED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES BENEATH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 44W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 49W-52W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 42W-49W. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY IS CAUSED MORE BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE WAVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The. Whole. Caribbean. 1. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Is it #1, or #2, or something else entirely, that becomes the system in the 240hr ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Is it #1, or #2, or something else entirely, that becomes the system in the 240hr ECMWF? The Western Caribbean is the area that the Euro is 'sniffing' out as well as the GFS. The monsoonal trough appears to become active in both the EPAC and the Western Basin next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Monsoon trough/slopgyre on this side is looking more likely. Might waste another name, but I'm not expecting anything special wind-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 That said, I basically had the same impression of Omar, Paloma, and Ida in years past, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 If we do get a storm with a small core to form and manage to stall over aTCHP hotspot for 60hrs, the sky is the limit. For now it's still a weenie/GGEM fantasy, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 With the amount of slop in this slop-gyre, I find it extremely unlikely that we see anything remotely close to a tight-core system. With that said, here's the GGEM Old, but not bad for a 20%. Probably still has 2-3 days before it consolidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Ha Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Almost Hazelesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 One thing is for sure, those warm carib/ gulf streams waters are surely untapped/untouched for a very long period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Up to 30 percent this morning down in SW carribbean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 It is interesting that, despite the models’ adamancy about a NE track over E Cuba / the Bahamas, climatology (CLP5) and the BAMD--which typically performs better with these slow-moving, late-October Caribbean systems, as it did with Wilma 2005--suggests a NNW track and a FL threat now that the system is likely to make its closest approach to the United States on or before 25 October. Although an initial NE drift seems likely after a few days, the highly progressive pattern suggests short-wave ridging will quickly build back in about a few days later, in the wake of the trough axis off E Canada...mainly due to the Pacific pattern favoring a deep West-Coast trough during that time frame. Given the likelihood that the system will be in the neighborhood on or before 25 October, I think a FL threat cannot be discounted...particularly if a low-level vortex consolidates farther west and becomes the primary vortex. I am having a hard time buying the idea that the system will split into two separate vortices...despite what the models indicate. The split may merely be convective feedback, a byproduct of the fact that the system may be large and messy...making a single vortex difficult to initialize. I am tending to argue that a single vortex--as in the ECMWF--is more likely to consolidate S of Jamaica and then drift NNW for a few days before turning NE...with a stall or a turn back to the NNW or NW probable after that time. The upcoming pattern is actually a bit similar to that of 14-18 October 1950...when Hurricane King threatened FL. Then, as now, we had a strong Greenland vortex, a progressive wavelength, and a strong West-Coast trough / Plains-based ridge with a strong surface gradient off the Southeast. Of course, in 1950, the wavelength was not quite as amplified...but the similarities between the ECMWF and the 1950 pattern are striking in some respects. Due to this, I also believe this system may surprise us and become more intense than what some people are anticipating...King 1950 actually began as a very broad, disorganized monsoonal gyre, yet actually became smaller over time and developed a tight center...and, of course, bombed out as it curved NNW into South FL. Note that the models showing the split take the Western vortex toward S FL and the eastern vortex over the Bahamas / out to sea...while in 1950 forecasters initially expected King to bend NE, out to sea, due to the effects of a Canadian trough to the NE. Instead, ridging built back in and forced King to curve from NNE to N and then NNW. I am not saying we will see a repeat of King...but the set-up bears watching. Interestingly, King also split into two systems as it neared FL, with the Gulf (western) vortex becoming Hurricane Love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Great post snowflake22! Iam watching... 12z canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Whoa...went to 60% already. Interesting. Hopefully this just doesn't develop into a multi-vortex slop system like the GFS and ECM suggest. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 it really looks good...no wonder they went for 60%...there's an evident LLC around 15N 73W. Models are converging into moving it WSW near Nicaragua then NE near or across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba...as a pretty consolidated storm, with the exception of the Euro and GFS which have a lot more messy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 We were talking about this in the New England subforum and I thought I'd post this here. The models are pretty interesting over the next few days and you can see on today's GFS how the storm evolves. http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2012102012&t=gfs004&r=TA&d=TS Notice the PV streamer on the dynamic tropopause that gets dislodged from the westerlies over CONUS and breaks off into the Gulf and then the Caribbean. You immediately get a beautiful outflow channel to form and the storm is able to go to town. Looks like a bit of a baroclinic assist is what the slop gyre will need to consolidate convection and low level vorticity. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is fairly typical of late season Caribbean/Gulf storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 GFDL and the HWRF both rapidly intensify 99L before Jamaicas latitude. If this system can form a tight low level center in the next 24 hours, this could be a decent late season storm. 12z CMC New England forum: "I want to believe!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Thanks to Josh to put the cherry alarm on the thread description.. Would of never thought to look otherwise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 That GGEM is pure snow weenie porn!! Now to make it a true wildest fantasy, I need that Sub 965mb bad boy to stall just south of Long Island for 3 days droping 6-8ft of snow in the Berkshires and I'll quit my job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 I forgot: this is that time of year the icep*ssies try to claim the tropical action as their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Well, I'm supposed to visit NOLA the week of Halloween so hopefully this thing will stay out of the Gulf and move up the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I forgot: this is that time of year the icep*ssies try to claim the tropical action as their own. Let it go...if it comes back next year it means it was meant for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Looks half decent for it being the diurnal minimum and all. Recon is tasked for 21z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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