Ed Lizard Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 GFS has an ok looking 850 mb vortmax South of Puerto Rico in 8 days. The associated 500 mb vort is weaker and displaced a touch to the East. Two of the 0Z GEFS support a 1004 mb or stronger low at 192 hours, at 228 hours, a quarter of the ensemble members support a 1004 mb or stronger Caribbean low, so I'm remaining glass eight full optimistic on a mid-October Caribbean system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Don't hold your breath. Anything forming in or crossing that area in October has about a 1% chance of making news in the USA. The only exception I can think of is Hazel 1954, which formed in the Caribbean and moved N, passing a bit W of where that lemon is and hitting the Carolinas as a strong 'cane. But that was highly unusual. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35846-atlantic-tropical-action-2012-part-ii/page__st__980#entry1772171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 The NHC must be really bored... 3 different missions tasked for this sucker. 12z GFS has the EATL tropical wave getting into the Caribbean sometime this week. IF I was going keep an eye on anything, it would have to be this feature. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1045 AM EDT SUN 07 OCTOBER 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCTOBER 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-141 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. 08/1800Z A. 09/1200Z B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE C. 08/1430Z C. 09/0900Z D. 23.0N 74.5W D. 24.5N 75.5W E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2130Z E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1630Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSBLE 10/0000Z FIX NEAR 24.5N 77.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 The NHC must be really bored... 3 different missions tasked for this sucker. 12z GFS has the EATL tropical wave getting into the Caribbean sometime this week. IF I was going keep an eye on anything, it would have to be this feature. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1045 AM EDT SUN 07 OCTOBER 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCTOBER 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-141 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. 08/1800Z A. 09/1200Z B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE C. 08/1430Z C. 09/0900Z D. 23.0N 74.5W D. 24.5N 75.5W E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2130Z E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1630Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSBLE 10/0000Z FIX NEAR 24.5N 77.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. They cancel those a lot of times if the system still looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 The NHC must be really bored... 3 different missions tasked for this sucker. 12z GFS has the EATL tropical wave getting into the Caribbean sometime this week. IF I was going keep an eye on anything, it would have to be this feature. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1045 AM EDT SUN 07 OCTOBER 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z OCTOBER 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-141 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. 08/1800Z A. 09/1200Z B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE C. 08/1430Z C. 09/0900Z D. 23.0N 74.5W D. 24.5N 75.5W E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2130Z E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1630Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSBLE 10/0000Z FIX NEAR 24.5N 77.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. At HRD, they're more likely to fly the P-3 for crap systems near the end of the year. This is because if they don't fly enough, their operating costs for the year end up low and those in charge of budgeting see that they operate "fine" on a low budget and risk a budget cut for next year. I'm pretty sure the funding is slightly more secure at NHC, but you never know these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 http://www.americanw...80#entry1772171 Page doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Page doesn't exist. It does, because it's this page...approx. 15 posts above this one(#991). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 It does, because it's this page...approx. 15 posts above this one(#991). But we're only up to Post #971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 But we're only up to Post #971. Oops. I forget I'm special and can see a few more posts than mere mortals . Still, check about 17 posts above this one...it's a reply from me to one of your posts...Hazel is not the only example you can think of in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 Oops. I forget I'm special and can see a few more posts than mere mortals . Still, check about 17 posts above this one...it's a reply from me to one of your posts...Hazel is not the only example you can think of in the future. Oh, the 1941 storm? I remember that post. OK, so two examples. The probability of this lemon becoming interestin' is therefore raised from 1% to 2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Oh, the 1941 storm? I remember that post. OK, so two examples. The probability of this lemon becoming interestin' is therefore raised from 1% to 2%. If you were me and you were one of your clients, you'd say "The probability of this lemon becoming interestin' raised 100%!!!11!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 If you were me and you were one of your clients, you'd say "The probability of this lemon becoming interestin' raised 100%!!!11!!!" Yes. Yes, I would. You know me so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 At least we are finally starting to see a pick up in the convection during the last week across the tropics compared to the suppressed look that we have been seeing all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al982012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201210081302 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012 AL, 98, 2012100712, , BEST, 0, 80N, 308W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 325W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 342W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2012100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al982012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201210081302 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012 ... AL, 98, 2012100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO, INVEST, M, Statistical guidance is incredibly unimpressed in the short term. near 20 knot shear increasing to 40 knots in 3 days. But I think this is what trhe GFS us hinting at in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 GFS running, and just a shame, North of the Caribbean just doesn't seem the place to go in October. If only it were August. Sort of a magic line, looking at 250 mb forecast winds, if it could somehow just stay South of 20º... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 They will form...not sure they will come... Last call for the Atlantic and EPac. Conditions will be good for cyclogenesis next 2 weeks, though steering currents doesn't seem to cooperate with the first ones in each basin. Favorable MJO conditions plus a CCKW currently crossing the Atlantic could light up the tropics some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 They will form...not sure they will come... Last call for the Atlantic and EPac. Conditions will be good for cyclogenesis next 2 weeks, though steering currents doesn't seem to cooperate with the first ones in each basin. Favorable MJO conditions plus a CCKW currently crossing the Atlantic could light up the tropics some. Yup. This is it. Should be over by about Oct 23. Fingers crossed, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 See Josh, one more chance..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 232 years ago, probably a very late Cape Verde system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 There is an obvious Kelvin wave that is enhancing the convection with Invest 98L today. You can see it in the upper level fields around the equator. As it passes by, the upper level easterly anomalies associated with the wave may also help to temporarily reduce the shear and allow 98L to develop. 98L is probably an event that may have not developed in the absence of this KW. My rationale is that the models were not that bullish about genesis until 24-36 hours ago, when the Kelvin wave was better observed in the model fields. Remember, models typically do a poor job with KW and most equatorial wave dynamics. You can see the GFS is now keying on genesis in the 36-42 hour time frame when before there was little to no vorticity signature. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F042/dtpres/tropatl/dtpres_tropatl_dprog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 97L just needs a small relocation to the southeast (which might be in the works) and an instant TD/TS will pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 looks really good! 97L just needs a small relocation to the southeast (which might be in the works) and an instant TD/TS will pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Holy crap, 97L. This thing was actually removed from the TWO this morning. Still badly sheared and not stacked up at all, but suddenly this looks like a bonafide developing system. This other one here needs some more time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 LLC is becoming elongated to the southeast (hinting at a relocation) and convection is building closer to the center. This will very probably be at least a cherry in the next TWO. 98L is looking good too. CCKW is working it's magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I wonder where it will end up if it does become a storm because none of the models really developed it LLC is becoming elongated to the southeast (hinting at a relocation) and convection is building closer to the center. This will very probably be at least a cherry in the next TWO. 98L is looking good too. CCKW is working it's magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I wonder where it will end up if it does become a storm because none of the models really developed it Very probably it will get snatched by the cold front approaching to the NW...another possibility is that the building ridge in the GoM pushes it southward...or something in between. In all cases shear will be destructive, so I expect it to be short lived if it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 97L is looking pretty darn good. Wouldn't be surprised to see a nice bump in percentages in the next TWO. This one might beat 98L for getting named "Patty" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Very interesting. Islands may have to deal with a tropical storm within the next day or two. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND REPORTS FROM BUOYS WELL NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Doesn't look as good as 97L IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Ugh. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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