HurricaneJosh Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Wish I lived in the Azores... Why-- so you can experience a lame, semi-tropical piece o' crap? Hardly seems worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 How's ACE so far this year in the atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Why-- so you can experience a lame, semi-tropical piece o' crap? Hardly seems worth it. ;-) Better than the early autumn zephyr I am currently experiencing...hmm, maybe not. Pretty awesome day here. No tropical weather in the Atlantic other than a continuously circling fish, another red blob fish and no solar weather while we approach the solar max. It will change, of course, and all will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 ;-) Better than the early autumn zephyr I am currently experiencing...hmm, maybe not. Pretty awesome day here. No tropical weather in the Atlantic other than a continuously circling fish, another red blob fish and no solar weather while we approach the solar max. It will change, of course, and all will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 How's ACE so far this year in the atlantic? 97. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 96L gets to 56 knots per SHIPS before cooler water and increasing shear start in 3 days, but weakens it by surprisingly little, 52 knots at 120 hours despite 27 knot shear and 24º SSTs in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 What have the XTRP's verification scores been like so far this season? Much better in the short term than the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 What have the XTRP's verification scores been like so far this season? I was going to troll and ask the same question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Models have a piece of the trough that's gonna sweep Nadine and 96L leaving behind from the tail end of the front and dropping SW towards the W Atlantic (close to the Bahamas). Ridging and marginal conditions aloft are shown in the models, with the Euro showing a stronger vorticity center slowly moving W to SW. I'm not expecting much at the moment, but if it can survive for a week or so, the area of disturbed weather could consolidate in a slow brew near home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 On a related note, there's a distinct planetary wave, especially shown aloft, associated to the MJO currently crossing the Pacific. Models are now in agreement of a resurrection of the MJO into phase 8 in about a week. This could translate to favorable cyclogenesis conditions in the EPac starting 5-6 days from now, and around 10-15 days from now in the Atlantic. Time sensitive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 On a related note, there's a distinct planetary wave, especially shown aloft, associated to the MJO currently crossing the Pacific. Models are now in agreement of a resurrection of the MJO into phase 8 in about a week. This could translate to favorable cyclogenesis conditions in the EPac starting 5-6 days from now, and around 10-15 days from now in the Atlantic. Time sensitive This would be a time where I'd just be cautious with interpreting the RMM signal. There's a way to "dissect" the RMM signal into it's 3 individual components, which we call the fractional contribution of each variable onto the RMM. Matt has this running live on his webpage. If you look at today's fractional contribution, OLR accounts for 18.5%, U850 accounts for 35.6% , and U200 accounts for 45.9% of the full combined PC. Therefore, U200 appears to be the main dog in town and taking a look at the time-longitude plot below of 200 hPa zonal winds averaged from 5S-5N, the strongest area of upper-level diveregence is centered about 150E, hence the West Pac. Unfortunately, this signal is propagating westward and not associated with the MJO. However, the GFS wants to take this westward propagating signal and create and eastward propagating one.. Which may or may not verify, I'm not sure. It's just hard to believe a model-derived forecast of the MJO at the moment. That being said, I have created an MJO index using space-time filtered 850VP ( I also have 200VP, but it's a very weak MJO signal!). The MJO phase space diagram below shows there is still some MJO signal, which is strongest in the low-levels and is currently already located over the East Pacific. That being said, I do have some feelings there might be some elevated chance for genesis over the Caribbean-GOM once this signal propagates into RMM phases 2-3... however since the signal is weak, I'm not overly too confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kylemacr Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 My CFS projections tell a similar story. You can see that the MJO is forecast to flare up a bit in phase 8 moving into phase 1. Notice that from ~10/23 onward, the model is fairly confident (if you measure confidence by ensemble agreement) of a noticeable MJO. One advantage to this particular RMM index is that it only factors in variables that are on the MJO timescale and which propagate eastward. Therefore, the intersection of other equatorial modes is much less likely to create a false MJO signal. In a Hovmoller sense, the CFS is forecasting fairly significant (1.5 sigma) MJO OLR anomalies around 10/23 as well. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/plotfilteredhovs_trans_normalized.php?lat=75S75N I doubt we'll see any significant MJO activity before 10/23, though, and this corresponds well with what Mike and the GFS are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 TD 15 has formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Keep an eye on this feature expected to dive southward over the next 24-48 hours, the global models are hinting that it might try to develop just north of Puerto Rico by day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Keep an eye on this feature expected to dive southward over the next 24-48 hours, the global models are hinting that it might try to develop just north of Puerto Rico by day 3. Yep, that's the feature I was talking about a few posts back. New Euro is bullish, developing a TC in the Bahamas. By the way, the same Euro run is now leaving Nadine's associated vorticity back to where it is now by day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yep, that's the feature I was talking about a few posts back. New Euro is bullish, developing a TC in the Bahamas. By the way, the same Euro run is now leaving Nadine's associated vorticity back to where it is now by day 5 Sorry I missed your post earlier. Even though both the GFS and ECMWF hang the vorticity around the Bahamas in the longer range, I think its more likely it gets picked up by the mid-latitude trough or sheared out rather than pose a legitimate US threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yeah, something N of Puerto Rico in October is essentially fish food. Can't believe this is the best we have to discuss on 03 Oct. The garbage continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yeah, something N of Puerto Rico in October is essentially fish food. Can't believe this is the best we have to discuss on 03 Oct. The garbage continues. Although for this time of the year, anything N of Puerto Rico climo favors recurving, 0z Euro and now the 18z GFS favor a SW continuation track into the NW Caribbean...but shear from the building deep layered ridge in the GOM proves too strong before it shears out the budding disturbance. 12z Euro digs the East coast trough a bit deeper, and snatches the better organized disturbance to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 Although for this time of the year, anything N of Puerto Rico climo favors recurving, 0z Euro and now the 18z GFS favor a SW continuation track into the NW Caribbean...but shear from the building deep layered ridge in the GOM proves too strong before it shears out the budding disturbance. 12z Euro digs the East coast trough a bit deeper, and snatches the better organized disturbance to the NE. Fish or sheared-- climo prevails. Oct disturbance N of Puerto Rico = crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Not sure the EUro thing is tropical. Looks like it'straddling a dry line, maybe a subtropical mess that eventually becomes tropical if a ridge builds north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Fish or sheared-- climo prevails. Oct disturbance N of Puerto Rico = crap. You can always buckle climo, like storm #5, 1941 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 You can always buckle climo, like storm #5, 1941 Not this year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 TD 15 has been upgraded to TS Oscar... not that anybody cares lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Nadine single handedly boosted TNA temps, which are near record warm for this time of the year. Not that it matters much, since the region is almost dead until next season. Any activity in the basin will probably have to wait for the 2nd half of the month, other than any subtropical spawns or the Bahamas thingie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Finally something shows in the long range modeling (12z GFS). Remember, the long range models won't verify verbatim, but they could be signaling a change in the pattern for the 2nd half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Finally something shows in the long range modeling (12z GFS). Remember, the long range models won't verify verbatim, but they could be signaling a change in the pattern for the 2nd half of the month. Most Ensemble show a storm somwhere near Cuba at 384hrs. The MJO should be coming into a more active phase at that time. A mid-late October storm in the Caribbean is almost a yearly event, although it is stronger some years than others depending on shear and interaction with land. So I guess there is one more chance for a major hurricane. If we miss that, we're stuck with the C- season we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Bahamas Low: code yellow 10% It looks like a small re-curve, but depending how slow/fast it moves it could be a potential threat. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 Don't hold your breath. Anything forming in or crossing that area in October has about a 1% chance of making news in the USA. The only exception I can think of is Hazel 1954, which formed in the Caribbean and moved N, passing a bit W of where that lemon is and hitting the Carolinas as a strong 'cane. But that was highly unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al972012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201210070024 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END AL, 97, 2012100700, , BEST, 0, 220N, 673W, 25, 1007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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