Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II

[HurricaneJosh]

My early season fantasy football like scoring I think will do okay. Computing it for past years may prove difficult. Somone said why don't you just use ACE, I think I replied because of the 2011 season.

About the lack of major landfalls, there has been a lack of activity in the Gulf and Caribbean since 2008. Keith and ALex were the only notable storms in the region, everything else has been a slopgyre. The gulf especially is key for major US landfalls even if majors don't form there they usually pass through it, and everything in that area has looked like **** since 2008.

Not disputing what you're saying, but you forgot Karl 2010, which was almost a Cat 4 in the S Gulf.

[Amped]

Not disputing what you're saying, but you forgot Karl 2010, which was almost a Cat 4 in the S Gulf.

I got keith and Karl confused. oops!

[am19psu]

Since I'm all about coolness over numbers, I've never given a half crap about ACE.

ACE usually works as a proxy for coolness. Except this season is highly unusual. Unless long track 55kt TSs are your thing, this season has definitely not been cool.

[bluewave]

The lack of 100-kt cyclones hitting the USA is starting to get weird. Even with the expected demotions of some historical storms due to reanalysis, you have to go back to the Civil War years to find a longer period without a major on American shores. Wtf? Even the pathetic early 1980s did better.

If Bret came in a little further south , we would have had a long streak from the 90's into the early 2000's.

But that being said, I don't think I would have made anyone a bet in Late 2005 that there would be such a long

gap between major hurricane landfalls. I also think that Ike may have easily been categorized as a major mid-century

before a reanalysis came along to show that it wasn't. It was also unusual to have such an active season back in 2010

and not even have any hurricane landfalls.

[am19psu]

Looking in the MR, I don't see anything interesting until maybe after Oct 7-12. Even then, given the ENSO set up, I'd imagine the EPAC will be more favored than the NATL. I tweeted back in mid-August asking for the o/u of genesis events after Sep 10 and set it at 3.5. Most people then went under and I think that is going to be right, despite the historic start to the season.

[Srain]

...and now we wait for the tropical threads here to turn into climate change threads...

Too late for that. Posts have already been moved to the CC forum....

[HurricaneJosh]

ACE usually works as a proxy for coolness. Except this season is highly unusual. Unless long track 55kt TSs are your thing, this season has definitely not been cool.

But I think also it depends what you think is cool. ACE doesn't reflect land interaction, and fish bore me. So, ACE can be through the roof and the season can still be a mega-snoozer (in my opinion).

[am19psu]

But I think also it depends what you think is cool. ACE doesn't reflect land interaction, and fish bore me. So, ACE can be through the roof and the season can still be a mega-snoozer (in my opinion).

Yeah, I was going to post about that too, but it was 6am. You and I have clearly different definitions of cool, though 55 kt TSs aren't cool in either of them.

[HurricaneJosh]

If Bret came in a little further south , we would have had a long streak from the 90's into the early 2000's.

But that being said, I don't think I would have made anyone a bet in Late 2005 that there would be such a long

gap between major hurricane landfalls. I also think that Ike may have easily been categorized as a major mid-century

before a reanalysis came along to show that it wasn't. It was also unusual to have such an active season back in 2010

and not even have any hurricane landfalls.

Well, you can always say, "If this one storm didn't happen" or "If one more landfall did happen" we'd have a record.

But it is interesting the Bret was the only major landfall during that long stretch-- and it reminds me that almost all of the major landfalls in the USA over the last 15 yeats happened in just 2 seasons.

Ike definitely would have been called a Cat 3 in the 1970s, and Isaac would have a Cat 2. There are some examples of underestimates-- I think Celia 1970 was really a Cat 4 and might get upgraded-- but overestimates are much more common. Bottom line is that hurricane winds have generally been overstated.

[Ed Lizard]

This should cheer Josh up. Over 7 years now.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36820-hurricane-rita-7th-anniversary-thread/

[Amped]

If Bret came in a little further south , we would have had a long streak from the 90's into the early 2000's.

But that being said, I don't think I would have made anyone a bet in Late 2005 that there would be such a long

gap between major hurricane landfalls. I also think that Ike may have easily been categorized as a major mid-century

before a reanalysis came along to show that it wasn't. It was also unusual to have such an active season back in 2010

and not even have any hurricane landfalls.

Ah Bret, the most easily forgotten major hurricane landfall.

[dan11295]

Bret is always forgetten because it came ashore in Kennedy County,, TX, the least populous coastal county in the gulf or east coast. Between that and its small size, it affected very few people.

[Ed Lizard]

Ah Bret, the most easily forgotten major hurricane landfall.

Heard rumors it killed King Ranch cattle by sandblasting off their hides. The Labor Day Storm apparently did kill people by sandblasting their skin.

[turtlehurricane]

if you're measuring total energy dissipation, ACE is the only relevant number. If you're talking about the coolness of a season, there can be overriding metrics. I'm done arguing with you because you're obviously infatuated with garbage 55 kt TSs. Your definition doesn't match the rest of the boards but whatever. I'm sure you'll continue being a stubborn meat head about it.

You never even explained what your point is and yet you call me a stubborn meat head, pretty ridiculous.

Energy generation is the most relevant stat to rate seasons globally, integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is even better but most storms don't have accurate wind field measurements so ACE is used instead. That's how the scientists who work in the hurricane-climate business rate seasons, not on whether multiple hurricanes made landfall. When you start breaking things down by landfalls or number of strong hurricanes the stats become much weaker since there's much less sample size and the system is fairly chaotic.

By the way, the fact that we had a landfalling hurricane in the United States makes this year active if that was the only thing considered, since many years had no hurricane landfalls in the U.S. I'm getting the sense your rating system is based on whether a hurricane threatens or hits the east coast, that's an incredibly narrow metric in my opinion.

[am19psu]

Lol at you lecturing me on how science works. I'm not talking about anything scientific. I'm talking about my (and most other people's) perception of the season. I couldn't care less about landfalls I'm only looking for cool storms. What's the best storm this year? Michael? Total garbage. Name queens/ACE queens have totally overrated this season

[wxmx]

There's a decent chance that the upcoming pattern of a deep trough over the W coast of the US and an MJO wave in favorable phases could overlap. The trough could pump ridging over the Wern half of the basin, lifting the westerlies some, and steering any disturbance generally W...certainly not a Niño pattern...yet. We are talking medium/long range...probably around Oct 4th-Oct 14th or so.

Also, it could prove interesting on the EPac, with the trough recurving storms while the MJO wave crosses over.

Something has to give, IMO...with the probable exception of the Azores low...AKA Nadine.

[andyhb]

Heard rumors it killed King Ranch cattle by sandblasting off their hides. The Labor Day Storm apparently did kill people by sandblasting their skin.

That would be an absolutely brutal way to pass.

[mappy]

<3 bendy

[Ed Lizard]

Major Hurricane Days- no, it doesn't reflect the added coolness of a Brownsville to Chatham landfalls, or award extra bonus points for a Mobile to Melbourne landfall, or reflect the different metric of i-Cyclone's preferred 30ºN and Southward landfalls, but 2 week 50 knot storms is not the same as a Cat 4 for days with a Jelywat (WPAC) satellite appearance for those of us who can appreciate Florida landfalls, or even Long Island landfalls, as something special, but also realize well formed systems even at sea have their own je ne sais quoi.

[dan88]

Invest 95l declared East of the Bahamas

[GaWx]

Invest 95l declared East of the Bahamas

Per the well-respected Mr. "57" at another BB, this is just a test.

[wxmx]

Invest 95l declared East of the Bahamas

Guess they are doing some tests...there is nothing there.

[Ed Lizard]

Zero model support, almost no 850 mb vorticiy on CIMSS analysis, but the blob South of Hispaniola does have weak 700 mb vorticity, and rather than a test invest, why not have an invest on a genuine blob and provide some false hope on the weather boards?

[ineedsnow]

way to much wind shear now

Zero model support, almost no 850 mb vorticiy on CIMSS analysis, but the blob South of Hispaniola does have weak 700 mb vorticity, and rather than a test invest, why not have an invest on a genuine blob and provide some false hope on the weather boards?

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, the whole basin just looks like crap-- it looks like winter.

[Ed Lizard]

way to much wind shear now

I never said it would develop. Just if they needed a test invest, might as well get the Wunderground crowd fired up.

[HurricaneJosh]

At the rate that we are going, this may be the first season since the AMO shift that we couldn't close

the deal on a sub 960 mb pressure TC in the Atlantic.

Even with the super Nino revving up during the 1997 season, we made it down to 946 mb with Erika.

Wow-- that is crazy. Didn't even realize that. But, hey, the season isn't quite over.

It's also a crazy stat that our last three hurricane landfalls had impacts above and beyond what you

would expect from just looking at their Cat status. Ike with major surge impact above it's Cat 2 rating

due to it's large wind field. Irene's extra low pressure at Cat 1 from NC up along the coast to

the north. And Isaac as a Cat 1 on steroids with major surge above his pay grade and large

circulation and slow motion.

The next I-storm landfall should be interesting to see.

Yeah, I has really over-delivered all these years. Iris 2001 was one of the hawtest ever.

[turtlehurricane]

My gut feeling is that the Indian summer will lead to a period of activity in the western part of the basin, might even see some U.S. landfalls.

[Ground Scouring]

My gut feeling is that the Indian summer will lead to a period of activity in the western part of the basin, might even see some U.S. landfalls.

With that huge Bermuda ridge in place--which would shunt everything into MX, rather than FL or the N Gulf, which is more desirable for a big hit in October due to the W-Caribbean formations--and with shear increasing, such a prospect is more laughable and far-fetched than even the most outlandish Canadian model run. I am sorry, but the bolded is just a pipe dream given the upcoming pattern.

Yes, there have been some notable MX majors or substantial hurricanes on the Atlantic side on October--Roxanne 1995 and Wilma 2005, to name a few--but from 1851 to the present, most W-Caribbean majors targeted Cuba, the N Gulf, or FL. And furthermore, the vast majority of those hits occurred when El Niño was not an impediment to contend with. So basically, for practical purposes, the season is over just as others have proclaimed.

[HurricaneJosh]

With that huge Bermuda ridge in place--which would shunt everything into MX, rather than FL or the N Gulf, which is more desirable for a big hit in October due to the W-Caribbean formations--and with shear increasing, such a prospect is more laughable and far-fetched than even the most outlandish Canadian model run. I am sorry, but the bolded is just a pipe dream given the upcoming pattern.

Yes, there have been some notable MX majors or substantial hurricanes on the Atlantic side on October--Roxanne 1995 and Wilma 2005, to name a few--but from 1851 to the present, most W-Caribbean majors targeted Cuba, the N Gulf, or FL. And furthermore, the vast majority of those hits occurred when El Niño was not an impediment to contend with. So basically, for practical purposes, the season is over just as others have proclaimed.

You forgot Hattie 1961, Joan 1988, and Iris 2001-- all Cat-4 Oct landfalls. The W-Caribbean countries are just as prone to big October cyclones as the USA. And the October majors in FL and Cuba are just as much "exceptions" as the MX landfalls you cite.

I should also point out that the W-Caribbean October landfalls are stronger. No Cat 4 has hit the Gulf Coast or FL in Oct in the last 60 years, whereas there have been multiple Cat-4 landfalls in the W Caribbean in Oct.