bluewave Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 If the Euro is correct with the weakening of the El Nino pattern in October, we could still see a few more Atlantic named systems later in the season. This was a change for the Euro from it's forecast last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 If the Euro is correct with the weakening of the El Nino pattern in October, we could still see a few more Atlantic named systems later in the season. This was a change for the Euro from it's forecast last month. Be careful when assessing the state of ENSO using SST data and then trying to make a prediction of Atantic tropical cyclones. The determining factor whether the Atlantic shuts down or not is if the atmosphere is responding to the SSTs in the Pacific. We have yet to seen any atmospheric response to ENSO this summer. The atmosphere still thinks we are in a La Nina! So I wouldn't hold any confidence in the Atlantic having a basic EL-Nino type of season, since we are still experiencing low-values of globally averaged Angular Momentum (which can be interpreted as a La Nina base state). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Alternatively, one might argue that the month long slope of AAM has been upward and this is typically the time of the season in which the effects of a developing El Nino start asserting themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 If the Euro is correct with the weakening of the El Nino pattern in October, we could still see a few more Atlantic named systems later in the season. This was a change for the Euro from it's forecast last month. Most of the weakening is in September, which has verified quite well...we are probably more in a La Niña like pattern than a Niño. We probably peaked at +0.9 in the weeklies a few weeks ago. Most probably, the next weekly update will be back in the warm neutral range. I still expect late season TCs in Oct and Nov. Dramatic how things changed in the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Alternatively, one might argue that the month long slope of AAM has been upward and this is typically the time of the season in which the effects of a developing El Nino start asserting themselves. Could be...the next MJO wave in mid-late october will show what this warm ENSO is really made of, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Alternatively, one might argue that the month long slope of AAM has been upward and this is typically the time of the season in which the effects of a developing El Nino start asserting themselves. You're right- it is trending upward. Just making an illustration to fair warning when trying to use an ENSO-derived index of SSTs and Atlantic TCs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Could be...the next MJO wave in mid-late october will show what this warm ENSO is really made of, probably. You're right- it is trending upward. Just making an illustration to fair warning when trying to use an ENSO-derived index of SSTs and Atlantic TCs Agree on both points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 For those who are interested, I have created a Kelvin-wave phase-space diagram to track strong Kelvin waves. I use a simliar methodology to WH04 but with Kelvin filtered VP200. The EOFs show a wavenumber 2 patter, so you'll get two ridges/troughs. Anyway, I'm not too sure how it will pan out but it might be a useful tool to track KWs with strong upper-level circulations. Climatologically, genesis is most favorable between Phases 2-4, and less favorable between phases 7-1. A July-September composite of unfiltered VP200 anomalies and 200 hPa wind anoamlies when amplitudes are greater than 1 sigma can be found here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Thinking back to previous page, possibly 5 non-tropical genesis events, that just feels warm ENSO, even if certain atmospheric indices haven't responded correctly. The early season developments killed me in the tropics contest, because I just had such 1997 flashbacks (the warm AMO had already begun, a developing Nino, 4 non-tropical developments culminating in Danny) and I remembered 2009. Anyhow, a mid-late October MJO wave, I try to stay glass half full optimistic, but that is past Opal range and into the rarefied air of a Wilma. That was an unusual year, however, that spoiled people on forums for years after. Using GEFS spaghetti, which worked pretty well as an amateur's quick-look for me in July and August as an indicator of when the uptick would begin, even the EPac is pretty slow except for the cherry until almost the end and there is no suggestion of Atlantic activity really through 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 CFSV2 week 6 looks nice. But good luck. The glass ramains 100000/100 empty in my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 CFSV2 week 6 looks nice. But good luck. The glass ramains 100000/100 empty in my forecast. Glass 3/1024 full, as last year, November 1st SSTs would have supported a decent storm from the Caribbean to South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Thinking back to previous page, possibly 5 non-tropical genesis events, that just feels warm ENSO, even if certain atmospheric indices haven't responded correctly. The early season developments killed me in the tropics contest, because I just had such 1997 flashbacks (the warm AMO had already begun, a developing Nino, 4 non-tropical developments culminating in Danny) and I remembered 2009. Anyhow, a mid-late October MJO wave, I try to stay glass half full optimistic, but that is past Opal range and into the rarefied air of a Wilma. That was an unusual year, however, that spoiled people on forums for years after. Using GEFS spaghetti, which worked pretty well as an amateur's quick-look for me in July and August as an indicator of when the uptick would begin, even the EPac is pretty slow except for the cherry until almost the end and there is no suggestion of Atlantic activity really through 2 weeks. Might it be that the atmosphere just isn't responding to ENSO as much as what was originally predicted, instead of most atmosheric indices not correctly responding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Most of the weakening is in September, which has verified quite well...we are probably more in a La Niña like pattern than a Niño. We probably peaked at +0.9 in the weeklies a few weeks ago. Most probably, the next weekly update will be back in the warm neutral range. I still expect late season TCs in Oct and Nov. Dramatic how things changed in the last couple of weeks. I think that really negative PDO for August was a hint at where we are now. It looks like we have to go all the way back to 1955 to find a lower value. http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 This has been a complete garbage season. You're the weenie for being a name queen. The average Atlantic season is 11/6/2 (tropical storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes), this year we have 14/8/1 if we have nothing more from here on out, and if other storms don't get added/upgraded post season. So no, you're the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The average Atlantic season is 11/6/2 (tropical storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes), this year we have 14/8/1 if we have nothing more from here on out, and if other storms don't get added/upgraded post season. So no, you're the weenie. Sophisticated people can use more than simple counts to make arguments. I expect more from a teen weather genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Even in the unlikely event that a new TC forms, the increasing AAM and shifting convective phase globally should shift the MJO sufficiently so that the persistent long-wave trough over the Eastern CONUS should weaken during the first half of October--thereby shutting down the chances of a U.S., meaning FL-based, threat from the Caribbean due to a building W Atlantic ridge. The 12Z ECMWF and its ensembles show this likelihood beginning in about a week. Anything that would attempt to develop in this pattern would quickly move into Mexico before developing. Basically, we are seeing a crappy August-like pattern in the wavelengths that should have been in place during prime Cape-Verde time over the last few years (2010-2012) but was not. (And anyway, the strong, subtropical, southern jet that is typical of developing Niño events should finally start to kick in as the AAM shift should mean the Niña-like atmosphere will finally respond by mid-October.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 The average Atlantic season is 11/6/2 (tropical storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes), this year we have 14/8/1 if we have nothing more from here on out, and if other storms don't get added/upgraded post season. So no, you're the weenie. What's the ACE count been this season so far Turtle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 What's the ACE count been this season so far Turtle? Ik im not turtle, but the ACE count so far is 85.0. You can check it out yourself daily at the bottom of the 2012 atlantic hurricane season page on wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Atlantic_hurricane_season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Ryan Maue's page has ACE at 91.8 currently: http://policlimate.com/tropical/ Ik im not turtle, but the ACE count so far is 85.0. You can check it out yourself daily at the bottom of the 2012 atlantic hurricane season page on wikipedia http://en.wikipedia....urricane_season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Not only Nadine is still alive and kicking @ day 10 in the 12z Euro, but the whole pattern is August like with a heat ridge in TX and a strong Bermuda ridge ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Not only Nadine is still alive and kicking @ day 10 in the 12z Euro, but the whole pattern is August like with a heat ridge in TX and a strong Bermuda ridge ... If that pattern had been around in August or September, Ernesto would have been an Okeechobee 1928 redux. Typical pattern over the last three seasons--nothing seems to align perfectly, even seasonally, for a major U.S. landfall, whether it is the AAM, the MJO cycle, the strength of the Hadley cells, the vorticity stretching in the N Hemisphere (which has favored numerous upper-level lows over the tropics), the Plains ridge (which has basically turned every Cape-Verde TC into an instant fish), etc.... Even though it is improbable, I am just bracing myself for more of this crap next year. (Maybe I am only half-joking. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Hurricane days and especially major hurricane days are the relevant stats, imo. Even ACE is normal due to the number of long tracking garbage TSs we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Snowflake22 should post more in the tropical threads even if he has a total IP screenname Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Hurricane days and especially major hurricane days are the relevant stats, imo. Even ACE is normal due to the number of long tracking garbage TSs we've had. Hurricane days is a fairly narrow measure of what's going on. Lol at throwing out the ACE number even though that's a better measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2012 Author Share Posted September 24, 2012 Reading this thread makes me mad at the atmosphere and mad at the NATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 if you're measuring total energy dissipation, ACE is the only relevant number. If you're talking about the coolness of a season, there can be overriding metrics. I'm done arguing with you because you're obviously infatuated with garbage 55 kt TSs. Your definition doesn't match the rest of the boards but whatever. I'm sure you'll continue being a stubborn meat head about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2012 Author Share Posted September 24, 2012 Since I'm all about coolness over numbers, I've never given a half crap about ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2012 Author Share Posted September 24, 2012 The lack of 100-kt cyclones hitting the USA is starting to get weird. Even with the expected demotions of some historical storms due to reanalysis, you have to go back to the Civil War years to find a longer period without a major on American shores. Wtf? Even the pathetic early 1980s did better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Since I'm all about coolness over numbers, I've never given a half crap about ACE. My early season fantasy football like scoring I think will do okay. Computing it for past years may prove difficult. Somone said why don't you just use ACE, I think I replied because of the 2011 season. About the lack of major landfalls, there has been a lack of activity in the Gulf and Caribbean since 2008. Keith and ALex were the only notable storms in the region, everything else has been a slopgyre. The gulf especially is key for major US landfalls even if majors don't form there they usually pass through it, and everything in that area has looked like **** since 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 ...and now we wait for the tropical threads here to turn into climate change threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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