Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 AL, 93, 2012091618, , BEST, 0, 258N, 958W, 20, 1014, LO, 1013 mb with a recent windshift to WSW at the databuoy ESE of BRO. Still not terribly exciting. As long as it doesn't interfere with moisture transport towards my lawn tonight and tomorrow, I am ok with a possible TD hitting Louisiana. So far, it isn't per SPC Meso analysis surface winds, dewpoints and 850 mb moisture transport. I'll be ok if it shuts us down a little early. GFS analyzed 250 mb winds are nasty right over the NW Gulf coast, 30 to 50 knots, but more like 15 to 20 knots where the disturbance is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 How's 2013 looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 How's 2013 looking? Glass half full, as least a weakening warm ENSO being forecast by most guidance. Bendy mod killed my Southern Hemisphere 2012-2013 tropics thread as being premature, even as Winter threads were started a month prior, but the question had to be answered. And I am not giving up on an October surprise, an Opal or Wilma type system that will make the entire season worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 A couple of different models are suggesting a sub-tropical development in the short term West of Nadine, that should be short lived, interest nobody, but perhaps take the name 'Oscar'. Top down development as a energy carves out a cutoff polar low, and an almost immediate surface reflection develops. Elsewhere, absolutely nothing looks to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 A couple of different models are suggesting a sub-tropical development in the short term West of Nadine, that should be short lived, interest nobody, but perhaps take the name 'Oscar'. Top down development as a energy carves out a cutoff polar low, and an almost immediate surface reflection develops. Elsewhere, absolutely nothing looks to happen. If the GFS is right and Nadine exits right, the central Atlantic ridge will be stronger and there's a chance the AEW currently exiting the African coast could survive in marginal conditions and move towards the Caribbean. Other than that, nothing looks imminent in the MDR. The -NAO and +PNA ridges amplified the pattern with a trough that killed the GoM, there could be a chance it could open briefly in around 2 weeks after the pattern relaxes, but probably only for the BoC and E GoM. Elsewhere, the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic look ok shear wise, but instability isn't there, as hasn't been most of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 A couple of different models are suggesting a sub-tropical development in the short term West of Nadine, that should be short lived, interest nobody, but perhaps take the name 'Oscar'. Top down development as a energy carves out a cutoff polar low, and an almost immediate surface reflection develops. Elsewhere, absolutely nothing looks to happen. Non tropical upper low possible generating a surface reflection is now a lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Yeah I'm starting to think my ideas before the season of this year being an "active early with an early shutdown" is starting to ring true. I'm surprised September has been as quiet as it has, but I think we are only looking at maybe a handful more storms this year (probably 2, 3 max). We may get lucky with a western Caribbean development, but I think the trends of this season lean towards more subtropical development out in the Atlantic, especially with El Niño rapidly approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 The Atlantic Basin is growing... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209191738 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012 AL, 94, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 The Atlantic Basin is growing... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209191738 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012 AL, 94, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 After the seeing the GFS and the euro I am cancelling the rest of the season. Gulf and Caribbean haven't done much all season. We get a couple central atlantic Cat1s at best, but I am going to expect nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209192141 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012 AL, 94, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 310N, 510W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I'm telling you.. The sub-tropical Atlantic has become the new MDR over the past four years. Sub-tropical storm Oscar seems like a decent possibility now. 1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Ugh. This year is just full of fail. If not for a couple of sexy moments-- a few hours of Ernie's life and a few hours of Isaac's life-- I would consider 2012 to be nuclear-grade fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Ugh. This year is just full of fail. If not for a couple of sexy moments-- a few hours of Ernie's life and a few hours of Isaac's life-- I would consider 2012 to be nuclear-grade fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I wouldn't push him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Not even sure I understand the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209192141 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012 AL, 94, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 310N, 510W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, This afternoon's AL94 has become tonights EP93. GFS has been enthused on a quick forming and quick dying STS for a couple of days now. Doesn't live long, true, but it is sort of aimed at SNE before it dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Ugh. This year is just full of fail. If not for a couple of sexy moments-- a few hours of Ernie's life and a few hours of Isaac's life-- I would consider 2012 to be nuclear-grade fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Not even sure I understand the response. I'm calling you a for canceling hurricane season in the middle of what's been a very active season so far. Only :weenie: do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I'm hoping 2013's Erin is a Florida double tapper, just like 1995, but a Cat or 2 stronger each landfall. Maybe a tad further North on first landfall. get the Space Coast solidly in the eyewall. I know "due" is an unscientific concept, but if anyplace is due in 2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 I wouldn't push him. Good instincts. Better hush up. I'm calling you a for canceling hurricane season in the middle of what's been a very active season so far. Only :weenie: do that. Sassyturtle. It's in the middle of the season, but the pattern sure looks lousy, and the long-range global models are showing nothing. I'm starting to shift my hopes to Oct in da EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I'm calling you a for canceling hurricane season in the middle of what's been a very active season so far. Only :weenie: do that. Active in the 2011 boring kind of active sense. Nobody will remember Kirk or Gordon in a couple of years. I can even handle fish, if they are classic long lived beautiful satellite fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 It's in the middle of the season, but the pattern sure looks lousy, and the long-range global models are showing nothing. I'm starting to shift my hopes to Oct in da EPAC. I agree we're in a bit of a quiet period which will extend at least another week, due to the failure of the positive phase of the MJO to cross from the East Pacific to the Atlantic over the past few days. Things could change quickly after a week though for all we know, certainly can't say it's over since the past couple weeks have been relatively quiet... though not even that quiet since we still have active storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I'm calling you a for canceling hurricane season in the middle of what's been a very active season so far. Only :weenie: do that. This has been a complete garbage season. You're the weenie for being a name queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I can even handle fish, if they are classic long lived beautiful satellite fish. ^^^This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 One of the oddest things about this season so far is the lack of a hurricane reaching major status west of 45W. This would be a first time since the AMO shift back in 1995 that this happened if nothing pops out in the Atlantic west of there before the season ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 The most interesting part of this season was the May/June explosion of activity. Isaac was okay, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Hi all.. I'm interpreting the tone on this forum as frustrated/sad/giving up on the season, whatever you may call it. Listen, we knew that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity would become suppressed for much of September... This relative period of inactivity was well predicted weeks ago and is just a bi-product of an unfavorable intraseasonal state. The key word here is intraseasonal, meaning weekly time-sclaes. The state of the atmosphere with regards to ENSO is as it was a month ago. The season is NOT over and I do believe we will still see the development of future tropical cyclones towards the end of September through mid-October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Hi all.. I'm interpreting the tone on this forum as frustrated/sad/giving up on the season, whatever you may call it. Listen, we knew that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity would become suppressed for much of September... This relative period of inactivity was well predicted weeks ago and is just a bi-product of an unfavorable intraseasonal state. The key word here is intraseasonal, meaning weekly time-sclaes. The state of the atmosphere with regards to ENSO is as it was a month ago. The season is NOT over and I do believe we will still see the development of future tropical cyclones towards the end of September through mid-October. OK, but where? More high-latitude crap? More Azores action? Or something of consequence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 94L is probably going to be our 5th subtropical-like genesis of the year. (Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Michael... ). This is an unusually high total that is not doubt related to the much higher SSTs than normal across the North Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.