Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 980 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Wilma. Keith '88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Every day we're adding to the no major US landfalls record. Almost 7 years now. We do not have the record for longest stretch without a major landfalling US hurricane. I keep hearing we broke the record. But we need to go this year and next year to tie the record of 8 consecutive season without a major US landfalling cane(1861-1868) List of all major landfalls http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/Majors.html 1861 season--NO MAJOR 1862-- NO MAJOR 1863-- NO MAJOR 1864-- NO MAJOR 1865-- NO MAJOR 1866-- NO MAJOR 1867-- NO MAJOR 1868- NO MAJOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 980 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I saw this and laughed. Its most defiantly a typo, they meant "are not marginal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 I saw this and laughed. Its most defiantly a typo, they meant "are not marginal" No, I think the way it's written is exactly how they meant it. Marginal: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/marginal?s=t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 No, I think the way it's written is exactly how they meant it. Marginal: http://dictionary.re...se/marginal?s=t I am face palming myself right now. I am so stupid. Sorry guys continue on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 I am face palming myself right now. I am so stupid. Sorry guys continue on No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Wilma. Finally, let's hope this develops into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Intensity guidance is in love with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 If this actually develops, it will be a massive fail for the global models - NOGAPS is the only one that's actually ever shown a persistent closed low coming out of it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 If this actually develops, it will be a massive fail for the global models - NOGAPS is the only one that's actually ever shown a persistent closed low coming out of it at all. Only chance I see is if it's a lee cyclone near Hispanola. Otherwise surface pressure just aren't going to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Why is the SHIPS so nuclear about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Why is the SHIPS so nuclear about it? Doesn't ships assume it's already a TS? This is a small weak mid level vortex with no surface reflection unless 00z soundings are missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Doesn't ships assume it's already a TS? Not sure-- but I think SHIPS basically lacks validity until the system is a true cyclone-- which this isn't. But it's nice to fantasize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Not sure-- but I think SHIPS basically lacks validity until the system is a true cyclone-- which this isn't. But it's nice to fantasize. It'll always be a CAT5 in somones imagination.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 25 knot TD is the initialization, shear becoming favorable, ditto OHC, in 2 days. If it was actually a 25 knot TC right now, it probably would go to town. http://ftp.nhc.noaa....L9212_ships.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Sad, peak of the season, and hanging hopes on a lemon unsupported by any reliable dynamic guidance. But, Nadine who knows how long Nadine will be contributing to ACE? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 My biggest disappointment with this season so far is the lack of strong storms. The number of storms is above average with 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes to date, but 4 hurricanes barely reached that intensity (Chris, Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie), with the 4 other hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean far away from North America. The long lived storms also didn't have higher ACE as they spent parts of their lifetimes as struggling tropical storms (Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie). So far, the only real impressive hurricane of this season at least in my opinion is Michael as it actually became a major hurricane, only briefly, and persisted as a hurricane for a decent amount of time. As of last night per the Wikipedia ACE stats, Michael and Leslie made up about 40% of this year's ACE; focusing on the other storms this year, for 12 named storms/6 hurricanes, the ACE to date (Nadine still active) would've been 48.2, the lowest for any season since 1950 with over 10 named storms. At least it's better than 2007 when Felix and Dean made up nearly 74% of that year's ACE; focusing on the rest of that season's storms would've left 13 named storms with a total ACE of only about 18-19 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 My biggest disappointment with this season so far is the lack of strong storms. The number of storms is above average with 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes to date, but 4 hurricanes barely reached that intensity (Chris, Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie), with the 4 other hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean far away from North America. The long lived storms also didn't have higher ACE as they spent parts of their lifetimes as struggling tropical storms (Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie). So far, the only real impressive hurricane of this season at least in my opinion is Michael as it actually became a major hurricane, only briefly, and persisted as a hurricane for a decent amount of time. As of last night per the Wikipedia ACE stats, Michael and Leslie made up about 40% of this year's ACE; focusing on the other storms this year, for 12 named storms/6 hurricanes, the ACE to date (Nadine still active) would've been 48.2, the lowest for any season since 1950 with over 10 named storms. At least it's better than 2007 when Felix and Dean made up nearly 74% of that year's ACE; focusing on the rest of that season's storms would've left 13 named storms with a total ACE of only about 18-19 or so. But in my opinion it's not better than 2007, as 2007 had two spectacular, intense landfalling cyclones (Dean and Felix), plus a very interesting, fast spinup in the Gulf (Humberto). Those three cyclones alone give me fond memories of 2007. I don't hate 2012-- Ernie and Isaac were great for me personally, as a chaser. But as a whole, this is simply a crap season-- no two ways about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Disclaimer: when judging whether a year is interesting, I don't care about the ACE value or how it's distributed. It's never been an interesting metric to me. For all I care, 90% of a season's ACE can be attributed to one storm-- if it's a mega-awesome storm and chase subject, it's a good season. But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 But in my opinion it's not better than 2007, as 2007 had two spectacular, intense landfalling cyclones (Dean and Felix), plus a very interesting, fast spinup in the Gulf (Humberto). Those three cyclones alone give me fond memories of 2007. I don't hate 2012-- Ernie and Isaac were great for me personally, as a chaser. But as a whole, this is simply a crap season-- no two ways about it. There's many different perspectives to look at how a season went, and I also enjoyed 2007 more than 2012 due to the three storms you mentioned when looking at an individual storm perspective. My post was referring to the seasons as a whole focusing on the intensity/duration of the storms and the ratio of strong to weak storms. In that aspect, 2007 was undoubtedly worse than this year. Although Isaac and Ernesto from what I've seen I would think were decent storms for chasing, Ernesto with its pre-landfall intensification and Isaac with its slow and erratic motion near landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 One thing for sure, 92L will not be ramping up anytime soon. The more likely scenario is some development as it passes the Central Caribbean and then is picked up and shear to death by the mid latitude trough dropping S late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 If one considers the GFS post truncation as a type of ensemble, the 0Z and 6Z GFS both hint at 2 week Caribbean activity, with the 6Z being just like Hazel, except a whole lot weaker. Glass 5/1024th full optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Something to keep an eye on is how th invest reacts to the upcoming passage of the convectively active phase of an eastward propagating CCKWcurrently responsible for the genesis of Tropical Storm Lane in the East Pacific. I'm a bit skeptical of how the GFS forecast is representing this CCKW, for it immediately dampens the eastward propagating negative VP200 anomalies over East Pacific (indicated by the time-longitde plot of VP200). Just something to keep an eye on... the scenario is staged for another 2010-Karl type genesis. A comment on SHIPS... SHIPS does not perform well when there isn't a vortex. Also, this is a statistical model, so I'm not sure it will know if the disturbance interacts with land (someone correct me if I'm wrong!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Something to keep an eye on is how th invest reacts to the upcoming passage of the convectively active phase of an eastward propagating CCKWcurrently responsible for the genesis of Tropical Storm Lane in the East Pacific. I'm a bit skeptical of how the GFS forecast is representing this CCKW, for it immediately dampens the eastward propagating negative VP200 anomalies over East Pacific (indicated by the time-longitde plot of VP200). Just something to keep an eye on... the scenario is staged for another 2010-Karl type genesis. A comment on SHIPS... SHIPS does not perform well when there isn't a vortex. Also, this is a statistical model, so I'm not sure it will know if the disturbance interacts with land (someone correct me if I'm wrong!). I think the DSHIPS is supposed to account for land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I think the DSHIPS is supposed to account for land interaction. Speaking od Decay SHIPS and land interaction, does DSHIPS "know" the difference between crossing Haiti and crossing the Northern Yucatan? Is there a terrain factor, or is it just a statistical decay for any cyclone of a given strength spending a certain amount of time over any land mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Shear is way too strong and too much dry air for that feature to develop in the near term. The more favored area of cyclogenesis would tend to be in the BoC/Western Gulf next week and the SW/Western Caribbean the following week, IMO. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al932012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209161725 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Wow that was a surprise... Looks like 93L has a decent shot at becoming a cyclone. Sent from Tapatalk 20% is decent. I guess you can't go wrong with subjective terms like decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epound28 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 20% is decent. I guess you can't go wrong with subjective terms like decent. Your post fits your signature quite well! I enjoy that. I hope the wishcasting doesn't begin, but with this tropical season, I can definitely see why it might. On another note, the 18Z intensity guidance doesn't suggest anything too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Texas Coastal radars are starting to show some banding developing N of a broad low slowly moving NE about 150 miles SSE of Corpus. While this disturbance will be highly sheared as the upper trough swings E, there remains a chance of some development prior to moving inland Tuesday along the Louisiana Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.