andyhb Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 300+ undergrads at UW-Madison have to make a hurricane forecast every day for the rest of the season thanks to me What have you done?! God forbid you make them intensity forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 The struggle against model boguscanes was a long one (and yes, I believe there was a scientific paper that actually called them that - might want to google it up.) I'm not quite certain how they were removed, but the AVN/MRF was hideous regarding them about a decade ago. I assumed part of the Boguscane thing was grid scale convective feedback. Something that came up in a severe thread, with an entire series of the SREF members developing what looked like massive supercells, and I was told by a pro-met those were resolution induced QPF bombs, and one of the ways to identify a QPF bomb was a model developing a 500 mb low from all the latent heat release. I have since always assumed grid scale resolution would be inversely associated with boguscanes. But I heard they tweaked the CMC, and I don't think they upgraded the grid scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I have since always assumed grid scale resolution would be inversely associated with boguscanes. This is true, but increasing resolution isn't the fix to the problem. It's the convective and radiative parameterizations that cause that sort of thing. The CMC has been doing a lot of work to fix their radiative scheme to make grid scale feedback less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Kudos to the CPC/NHC on their accurate fcst so far! The Aug update was taken in the right direction as well. Not bad: 14-14 7-7 3-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Here's an interesting stat: There has not been a hurricane located both east of 85W and south of 25 N yet this season! Ernesto became a hurricane just west of 85W, while Leslie achieved hurricane status north of 25N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Do any of the models show development of the wave SSE of Nadine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Do any of the models show development of the wave SSE of Nadine? Shear is way too strong and too much dry air for that feature to develop in the near term. The more favored area of cyclogenesis would tend to be in the BoC/Western Gulf next week and the SW/Western Caribbean the following week, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Shear is way too strong and too much dry air for that feature to develop in the near term. The more favored area of cyclogenesis would tend to be in the BoC/Western Gulf next week and the SW/Western Caribbean the following week, IMO. Ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2012 Author Share Posted September 14, 2012 Do any of the models show development of the wave SSE of Nadine? Well, the NHC did designate it a Lemon in the TWO. I like that it's moving W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 Nadine is now a hurricane. The advisory reads: NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005. The marketing slogan for the 2012 season? Quantity Over Quality-- since 2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I don't know how everyone else feels, but that's WAY too much blue... I really hope late September into October can be somewhat interesting with at least one "Carla Cradle" system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Pretty epically fails intensity wise, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I found the Op GFS and GEFS individual members did a fine job of not predicting very much activity in July until they started sniffing out Ernesto, and they don't seem, best of my recollection, to have missed anything that did form. Run after run. 12Z and 18Z GFS have rain and somewhat lower pressure in Caribbean, but GEFS are remarkably unexciting, a few members of the 12Z ensembles showing some possible activity in the SW Caribbean in 2 weeks, but the models are suggesting to me, as an interested amateur, it will stay painfully slow for a while. Late month, SW Caribbean, not much before then in my amateur opinion. However, in Steve's Texas thread, I noted while models are fairly unenthusiastic on actual TCs, and even though past the end of the unofficial Texas season (the Equinox, but 1949 makes me glass 3/512th optimisitic just because it happened once, maybe 5/512th if we count Barelycane Jerry) GFS STR position and 250 mb winds over the Gulf at 2 weeks says while it is almost certainly too late, not to give up all hope. Anything in the Caribbean could be steered Northwest into the Gulf, and upper winds aren't terrible. And, well, if we get late September/early October Carla Cradle action and it hits Florida and generates thousands of YouTube uploads, 2011 will be a success anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I don't know how everyone else feels, but that's WAY too much blue... I really hope late September into October can be somewhat interesting with at least one "Carla Cradle" system. If you use your imagination a bit, the tracks in the N. Atlantic spell "LOL". Appropriately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 If you use your imagination a bit, the tracks in the N. Atlantic spell "LOL". Appropriately. It's actually a witch with the circle being the head. She's headed east on her broomstick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 If you use your imagination a bit, the tracks in the N. Atlantic spell "LOL". Appropriately. I think we're being sent a message, like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Second earliest to 8 storms in 100 years, and everyone is acting bummed just because we're not getting 1938 or Andrew Part Deux. And we could still get an Opal or Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Second earliest to 8 storms in 100 years, and everyone is acting bummed just because we're not getting 1938 or Andrew Part Deux. And we could still get an Opal or Wilma. I think it's this quantity over quality thing over the past couple of years that has worn some down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I think it's this quantity over quality thing over the past couple of years that has worn some down. I didn't have the internet, I don't think anyone outside of DoD or college computer labs did, but imagine what the 1980s would do to internet weather forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Nadine is now a hurricane. The advisory reads: NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005. ...and yet no storms have strengthened past 100 kt. Killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Every day we're adding to the no major US landfalls record. Almost 7 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 NCEP Ensembles really like the CATL wave... Wouldn't be too surprised to see a short-lived invest out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 I don't know how everyone else feels, but that's WAY too much blue... I really hope late September into October can be somewhat interesting with at least one "Carla Cradle" system. Yeah, the amount of blue is just ugly. And if it weren't for those two dabs of yellow-- on the Yucatan and in Louisiana-- it would be completely tragic. The funny thing is, if the season completely craps out from here, I have to grade it a solid B from a chase perspective, as I squeezed two interesting chases out of it. Yeah, they were Cat 1s, but for what they were, they were cool-- 'specially Baby Ernie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Still not an Invest yet on the ATCF website, but the probabilities for development over the next 48 hours on the 2 pm TWO for the Central Atlantic wave have gone up to 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 Still not an Invest yet on the ATCF website, but the probabilities for development over the next 48 hours on the 2 pm TWO for the Central Atlantic wave have gone up to 20%. Good catch there. I hadn't noticed. Despite the lack of enthusiasm from the models-- and all of us here-- the feature has remained persistent and coherent. I like that it's made it so far W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Any takers? SHIPS and LGEM are around 95-100 knots in the long range. This will not happen, but it's somewhat interesting to see. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al922012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209152022 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012091518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012 AL, 92, 2012091518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 522W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Any takers? SHIPS and LGEM are around 95-100 knots in the long range. This will not happen, but it's somewhat interesting to see. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al922012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201209152022 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012091518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012 AL, 92, 2012091518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 522W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Yes 180kts 870mb. If it doesn't happen I owe you 1 cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I like the BAM runs. Tracks close on speed and direction, suggesting GFS isn't seeing unfavorable shear, and all start bending it late enough North it *could* be a definite Florida threat. 18Z GFS isn't super enthusiastic, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 One thing is for sure, W GoM won't see anything out of it...W Carib then a sharp recurve towards FL is the most probable outcome if it develops. Right now it looks more like a E Atlantic disturbance, because the strong Erly shear, thanks to the anticyclone between it and Nadine, which is generating the Werly shear over the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 W Carib then a sharp recurve towards FL is the most probable outcome if it develops. Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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