Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 GFS at 192 still implies next system will recurve, has just enough of the trough that gets Leslie hanging back near 60ºW to catch it, but it still doesn't look like a slam dunk to me that it will get completely caught. On the other hand, as far North as it is starting, even though GFS implies it wouldn't get classified for probaly 4 or 5 days, it would be semi-miraculous. But then they said snow in South Texas for Christmas couldn't be done. Closer to home, 90L looks terrible, but NHC dropped it from 1010 to 1009 mb between the 6Z and 12Z best tracks, enough for me to remain my naturally sunny glass 7/64th glass full optimistic on development, and 3/128th optimistic on affectings ensible weather in Houston beyond reducing what little convergence the weak weekend front had to work with anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Leslie and the trough that is going to pick it up will leave a significant weakness out in the central Atlantic. Any CV-esque storms that develop in the coming 10 days will almost surely recurve unless it remains weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 My hunch is the Western Caribbean and perhaps the Gulf will be the areas to watch as we enter the last half of September to mid October. The Carla cradle would tend to be the favored spot, IMO. Also, the EPAC looks to begin a nice uptick as well with storms generally heading inland or NE along the Mexican West Coast and Baja Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 GFS at 192 still implies next system will recurve, has just enough of the trough that gets Leslie hanging back near 60ºW to catch it, but it still doesn't look like a slam dunk to me that it will get completely caught. On the other hand, as far North as it is starting, even though GFS implies it wouldn't get classified for probaly 4 or 5 days, it would be semi-miraculous. But then they said snow in South Texas for Christmas couldn't be done. Looking at the GFS ensembles, they spaghetti for this system seems to support the conventional wisdom that the longer it takes to develop, the better the chance it has to make the ECUSA. There is one (#004 for those keeping track at home) with a sub 984 hurricane headed for Long Island or SNE at Day 16, and it is about the last perturbation to develop a 1000 mb low from the disturbed area currently near 30ºW. Reduced glass resolution at Day 16, glass near/just below 1/8th full for a 1938 anniversary (+/- a couple of days) storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Looking at the GFS ensembles, they spaghetti for this system seems to support the conventional wisdom that the longer it takes to develop, the better the chance it has to make the ECUSA. There is one (#004 for those keeping track at home) with a sub 984 hurricane headed for Long Island or SNE at Day 16, and it is about the last perturbation to develop a 1000 mb low from the disturbed area currently near 30ºW. Reduced glass resolution at Day 16, glass near/just below 1/8th full for a 1938 anniversary (+/- a couple of days) storm. I could see a 1938 redox happening on at least 1 GGEM ensemble member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I could see a 1938 redox happening on at least 1 GGEM ensemble member I'm ashamed to admit it is bookmarked. After I discovered its existence because of MetFan... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/#pmsl Maybe GEM 0. 15 could be a Florida hit. Its getting harder to be a natural optimist as the season goes on, approaches the peak, with crappy fish storms and all. At least I'm not completely tropic-centric, and have severe weather to look at today and tomorrow. Not in my home subforum, so I'll just lurk and vicariously enjoy it. Losing IMBY interest because all signs say season over NW Gulf, but between the one real system in 1949, and my last pre-October season cancel being followed by a Summer without a beach place to crash at, I'll try to get excited by Carla Cradle talk. And, frankly, one good Florida YouTube storm in October would shake me, and a lot of the forum, out of any developing funk. And I was out of the country and missed it, but I'm sure I'd like a November 1985 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'm ashamed to admit it is bookmarked. After I discovered its existence because of MetFan... Well, it's not like you're looking at DGEX runs or something. We have a support group for those people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 GFS long range says 1995/2010 fish parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 91L: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 GFS long range says 1995/2010 fish parade. I'm not so sure I buy that at this time. The next wave will exit Africa further S and appears to take longer to develop (beyond 55W). The long range pattern suggests that a zonal flow will re develop as High Pressure builds N of the MDR. The weaker the disturbance traversing the MDR the better the chances of development beyond the Leeward Islands. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sort of subtle, but maybe everything shifts Westward just a tad in the medium range to let anything developing East/Central way get much closer to ECUSA, although I suspect the i-Cyclone type possible storms from this point out will come North, then Northeast out of the Caribbean as the likely genesis region starts shrinking and allowing initial development closer to North America with the changing seasons. Based on recent SOI values, a touch more optimistic the season won't shut down as early as I feared a month or two ago. Euro is a parade of fish, but I think I like where the 500 mb pattern seems to be shifting to at Day 10. 6Z GFS ensemble means seemed to support the Euro at 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 112th anniversary of the Big Galveston storm. Euro isn't looking good so on a 74th anniversary (plus or minus) 1938 storm, but looks like a TC for the Madeira islands or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 It seems you get one fish and the Atlantic is ruined. Does this happen often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 It seems you get one fish and the Atlantic is ruined. Does this happen often? A big storm near bermuda can really destroy the subtropical ridge. It happens most active years but the ridge can build back, activity just needs to quiet down for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 We need to get cyclones developing closer to home. Even in a great year, Cape Verde is not the place to look if you want a hurricane to landfall in the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looking at Snow Flakes reanalysis thread, with Vince not being the only Portugal TC, but still, twice in seven years would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 The Euro is spouting all kinda of silly fantasies this year. I don't know what they did to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 the 18ZGFS shows 91L not really developing and degenerating to an open wave just north of the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I'm confused as to what exactly is going on in the Atlantic on the longer ranges of the 00Z GFS. It looks like a giant tropical storm orgy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 The operational GFS track for 91L looks halfway interesting-- not totally hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 112th anniversary of the Big Galveston storm. Euro isn't looking good so on a 74th anniversary (plus or minus) 1938 storm, but looks like a TC for the Madeira islands or thereabouts. You can see that it was a very large hurricane like Ike and Carla from a recent reanalysis animation. http://sos.noaa.gov/videos/reanalysis_hurricane.mov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You can see that it was a very large hurricane like Ike and Carla from a recent reanalysis animation. http://sos.noaa.gov/...s_hurricane.mov Would make sense considering that massive surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Re: Galveston 1900, I don't know that it was that big of a hurricane, really. It was reanalyzed to have a RMW of 15 n mi (kind of small) and an overall size (R of outer closed isobar) of 300 n mi-- which is not crazy big. The reanalyzed landfall intensity, by the way, is 936 mb/120 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Would make sense considering that massive surge. See Josh's post above. 25 knot weaker Ike might have nearly equalled or possibly even exceeded Galveston surge flooding, at least from the bay side, maybe even over top of the post-1900 sea wall, if it had landfalled where 1900 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Who knows if it verifies, but next AEW after 91L doesn't develop, but looking decent (well, as a wave) and in Caribbean per Euro. Pontential later developing Caribbean cruiser/Mexico system of the i-Cyclone variety, last reasonable chance based on time of year for NW Gulf action, although I wouldn't expect this to be a NW Gulf system. Not obviously supported by GFS ensembles, which tempers any talk of half or any other type partially full glasses at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 There have been some hints in the past few days' operational and ensemble GFS and Euro of activity in the w. Caribbean and Gulf in the 8-14 day timeframe. At the very least, it looks like the next few waves behind 91L will likely stay rooted in the ITCZ for a while and have a good chance of making it into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic, instead of being pulled northward. Paul Roundy's OLR/850 wind anomaly forecast is also encouraging for mid-late September: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 There have been some hints in the past few days' operational and ensemble GFS and Euro of activity in the w. Caribbean and Gulf in the 8-14 day timeframe. At the very least, it looks like the next few waves behind 90L will likely stay rooted in the ITCZ for a while and have a good chance of making it into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic, instead of being pulled northward. Paul Roundy's OLR/850 wind anomaly forecast is also encouraging for mid-late September: Thank you. Was feeling a bit gloomy the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Oh, by the way-- the CV invest is now a cherry. It's gonna fish, so whatevz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 There have been some hints in the past few days' operational and ensemble GFS and Euro of activity in the w. Caribbean and Gulf in the 8-14 day timeframe. At the very least, it looks like the next few waves behind 90L will likely stay rooted in the ITCZ for a while and have a good chance of making it into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic, instead of being pulled northward. Paul Roundy's OLR/850 wind anomaly forecast is also encouraging for mid-late September: I tend to agree and have been posting for a couple of days for our local folks here in Texas about the potential upcoming pattern... The long range 12Z Euro finally is catching on to what the GFS has been 'hinting'. A disturbance behind 91L enters the Caribbean and the 18Z GFS is suggesting a surface low crossing the Yucatan and entering the Western Gulf while slowly strengthening. While this is still a ways out, seeing more guidance agreement from the reliable models lends a bit of creditability that the season may not be over a bit closer to home. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 New Euro has backed off a bit compared to yesterday's Euro, But Euro is no longer king. Our fearless leader of the KHOU-TV Channel 11 local forum may be even more of a glass half full type optimist than I am. But hoping the next 12Z Euro shows what yesterday's did. Beyond the resolution chop, the 6Z GFS in 11 days trying to show something weak in the Northwest Gulf. 45 knot winds at 250 mb overhead, weak might indeed be the operative word. But at least it isn't completely hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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