thewxmann Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Yes, probably a Cat 4/5 there, good for ACE. Recall that the "strength" depicted on models is more of a function of size than true intensity. This will probably end up being a large lumbering Cat 3 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Recall that the "strength" depicted on models is more of a function of size than true intensity. This will probably end up being a large lumbering Cat 3 or something like that. Yeah, but even extrapolated to account for size, the Euro's depiction is likely a Cat 4 at the very least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 TD13 has born. Not much love right now for proto Mikey from no one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 So apparently.... EIGHT TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST. THIS TIES THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS FORMING IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WHICH WAS SET IN 2004. FOUR OF THE TROPICAL STORMS BECAME HURRICANES DURING THE MONTH. THESE TOTALS WERE WELL ABOVE THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (1981 TO 2010) OF THREE NAMED STORMS...WITH ONE OR TWO HURRICANES. NO MAJOR HURRICANES OCCURRED THIS AUGUST...WHILE A MAJOR HURRICANE TYPICALLY OCCURS IN AUGUST ABOUT ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 So much for the El Nino suppressing activity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Kind of lame that none of them were majors. But I guess it's cool that two of them were unusually sexy Cat 1s (Ernie & Isaac). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 August was pretty darn active for an Nino year. With TD 13 lined up to become Michael, we could get deep into the list by the end of September. I could go for a Hurricane Tony... Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 So much for the El Nino suppressing activity... Funny that the other year that shares the record -- 2004 -- was also an El Nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 August was pretty darn active for an Nino year. With TD 13 lined up to become Michael, we could get deep into the list by the end of September. I could go for a Hurricane Tony... Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William Considering we already have tornadotony... Also, Oscar and Rafael sound pretty hardcore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 So much for the El Nino suppressing activity... Well, it apparently suppressed quality. Re: names... I want Nadine to be the 130-kt landfall that I chase. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Typhoon Oscar in 1995 was a beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Well, it apparently suppressed quality. Re: names... I want Nadine to be the 130-kt landfall that I chase. Thx. Most likely Nadine will be the fish nobody cares for or the crappy storm that brings some torrential rain to the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Most likely Nadine will be the fish nobody cares for or the crappy storm that brings some torrential rain to the southeast inb4 pillow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Fun Fact: We have until September ~13th to get to our "M" storm in order to stay ahead of 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The big question is, does the season wind down similar to 2004 or do we have a season like the year 2000 where we had Cape Verde Hurricanes exiting Africa (Isaac and Joyce 2000) on September 23rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 So much for the El Nino suppressing activity... Funny that the other year that shares the record -- 2004 -- was also an El Nino year. Well the GWO continues to remain in the low AAM phases as it did in 2004 maintaining an nina-esque atmosphere. So the weak nino .8C SSTA's haven't translated or been reflected in the atmosphere or atmospheric circulations yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Well, it apparently suppressed quality. Re: names... I want Nadine to be the 130-kt landfall that I chase. Thx. I see a 100 to 110 knot storm hitting Long Island on the 74th anniversary of 1938. Half the SNE and NYC subforums will be post limited by landfall, including at least one red tagger, However, it will be well into post-tropical transition, and will resemble some more intense Winter Nor-Easters that develop an eye like feature, and look spectacular on visible satellite imagery, but that have almost all the convection and cold clouds tops North and East of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 The big question is, does the season wind down similar to 2004 or do we have a season like the year 2000 where we had Cape Verde Hurricanes exiting Africa (Isaac and Joyce 2000) on September 23rd? It's an El Nino year... so probably the former. We'll probably see something like 2-3 NS's after September 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Its an El Nino madoki which is an El Nino where the ENSO 1-2 area is below normal which doesn't really supress activity hurricane seasons like this would be 1969, 2004, this year soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Things could get a little tight next week. GFS is a big fan of the MJO coming back to the basin soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 August was pretty darn active for an Nino year. With TD 13 lined up to become Michael, we could get deep into the list by the end of September. I could go for a Hurricane Tony... Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William +1 I can only dream...but I ain't gettin' my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Post Hour 192, the different GFS runs become somewhat divergent, but a long track Hurricane Nadine for Long Island on or about the 74th anniversary of 1938, I have to remain glass 5/256th full optimistic. The 6Z run today is a near miss fish, but lots can change in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Things could get a little tight next week. GFS is a big fan of the MJO coming back to the basin soon. ECMWF has changed its mind and now suggests counterclockwise rotation into RMM phases 4-6. This would go in line with the statistical model forecast that you sent a picture to yesterday. The bulk of the last MJO convective active phase is located over Maritime Continent. However, there appears to be many westward propagating disturbances causing interference with the MJO signal, causing the MJO signal to be weak (especially at the upper levels). ECMWF forecast: Just an osbervation but the GWO is nearly amplifying into RMM phase 4-5, which often phases with the phase of the MJO. However, the uncertanity with the MJO forecasts lately are very high. http://www.esrl.noaa...gcm/gwo_fnl.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Since Steve's Texas thread in the Plains/Western subforum still is subtitled "eyes on the tropics" 1) GFS gets a low, sort of, kind of (and JB is tweeting) from the remnants of Isaac, almost, not quite, to 90ºW before the super-mega Autumn cold front blasting through Texas kicks it East 2) Weatherbell Free Model site and Raleigh, and even PSU e-Wall suggesting the Yurpians not playing well today. But free ECMWF.int site day 9 and 10 shows a not bad looking tropical wave in the Western Gulf. Glass 3/64th's optimistic. The window is rapidly closing on Texas season, but it isn't closed yet. Which reminds me, I have to look for a reconstructed 500 mb map for October 1st and 2nd, 1949, when a TC was dragged from the Pacific into the BoC and hit Freeport. A once or twice a century kid of deal, but if I can stay Glass 1/256th full optimistic on Texas tropical season past the Equinox, that is part of my silver lining rose colored glasses nature that should have me in the running for 2012 Weenie of the Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Since Steve's Texas thread in the Plains/Western subforum still is subtitled "eyes on the tropics" 1) GFS gets a low, sort of, kind of (and JB is tweeting) from the remnants of Isaac, almost, not quite, to 90ºW before the super-mega Autumn cold front blasting through Texas kicks it East 2) Weatherbell Free Model site and Raleigh, and even PSU e-Wall suggesting the Yurpians not playing well today. But free ECMWF.int site day 9 and 10 shows a not bad looking tropical wave in the Western Gulf. Glass 3/64th's optimistic. The window is rapidly closing on Texas season, but it isn't closed yet. Which reminds me, I have to look for a reconstructed 500 mb map for October 1st and 2nd, 1949, when a TC was dragged from the Pacific into the BoC and hit Freeport. A once or twice a century kid of deal, but if I can stay Glass 1/256th full optimistic on Texas tropical season past the Equinox, that is part of my silver lining rose colored glasses nature that should have me in the running for 2012 Weenie of the Year. There is a fair amount of model support for some sort of a weak system getting going in the eastern Gulf ahead of that early Fall front. Appears as though it originates out of the system driving the large MCS over AL the last 24 hours. ECMWF gets it pretty far offshore and down to around 1005 mb before it moves NE into FL and eventually becomes a deepening ETC along the East Coast. Upper level conditions rest of the week around it look OK but not great. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of it, and if/when NHC starts discussing in the TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Pretty much all of the global models have a "multi-system slop setup" in the MDR in about 5-6 days. Surprisingly enough, the ECMWF and UKMET are the most bullish as of 12z today. I apologize for the different time frames, but something seems to be up with our global models today. They all illustrate pretty much the same thing. ECM by 120 hours GFS by 144 hours NOGAPS by 144 hours CMC by 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 NHC seems to want to get a jump on this one. 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 NHC seems to want to get a jump on this one. 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS Floater already. Would head in the direction of local excitement except super-mega Autumn trough pushing super-mega Autumn cold front will stop it in its tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Floater already. Would head in the direction of local excitement except super-mega Autumn trough pushing super-mega Autumn cold front will stop it in its tracks. what would have been the odds two weeks ago when Isaac was south of Hispaniola that it would eventually hit the same coastal location (LA/MS) coming from both the north and south directions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Pretty much all of the global models have a "multi-system slop setup" in the MDR in about 5-6 days. Surprisingly enough, the ECMWF and UKMET are the most bullish as of 12z today. I apologize for the different time frames, but something seems to be up with our global models today. They all illustrate pretty much the same thing. ECM by 120 hours GFS by 144 hours NOGAPS by 144 hours CMC by 144 hours Something to be cautious about this wave (with respect to the GFS forecast), is that prior to exiting West Africa, the GFS has the strongest rain rates occuring between 06-12Z over the Guinea Highlands region tomorrow. This is a time of day where convection is often suppressed from diural forcing. So I'm not 100% sure if the GFS is accurately predicting the coherent diurnal cycle of convection there. That being said, there is a weak CCKW passing across the Atlantic during this time, and will superimpose with this wave in the next 3-5 days, increasing the chance of genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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