am19psu Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Picture Adam giving a thumbs down making a noise with his tongue and that is what plbbbbbbt means Actually, that's exactly it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Picture Adam giving a thumbs down making a noise with his tongue and that is what plbbbbbbt means Ha greatly appreciated. Thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Sort of unrelated to anything, but kind of cool, when two TCs are reasonably close and at similar latitude, a narrow line of clouds runs from the NE quafrant of the Westernmost storm to the SW quadrant of the Easternmost storm. Almosts looks like the warm front/cold front that connect two frontal lows. I suspect its a remnant of the ITCZ/monsson trough lifted out of position, but I have always just liked looking at it. I've seen it in the Atlantic, but it is more common in the Pacific (or easier to find on internet searches). Note it is backwards in the South Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 And then plbbbbbbbbbtttttt Thanks Mapgirl for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Sort of unrelated to anything, but kind of cool, when two TCs are reasonably close and at similar latitude, a narrow line of clouds runs from the NE quafrant of the Westernmost storm to the SW quadrant of the Easternmost storm. Almosts looks like the warm front/cold front that connect two frontal lows. I suspect its a remnant of the ITCZ/monsson trough lifted out of position, but I have always just liked looking at it. I've seen it in the Atlantic, but it is more common in the Pacific (or easier to find on internet searches). Note it is backwards in the South Pacific. Another AW poster and I started discussing these features probably 10-12 years ago. We affectionately label them as "towropes" when they are connecting two systems (in deference to "rope clouds"). These convergent bands are frequently associated with wind speed surges in the deep tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Going to July pre-season ( I know it is officially the season, but it is like out of conference season playing Lousiana Tech or something) mode of looking at GFS well past resolution reduction for distant hopes, but new GFS looks noisy in Steve's Caribbean "Carla Cradle" with a break in the ridge perfectly situated to bring something almost due North towards the Florida. Maybe even early Hazel-esque action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 We can always hope for a homebrew type system. Josh's fav TC, the homebrew sloppy-gyre is a possibility on the 06z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 We can always hope for a homebrew type system. Josh's fav TC, the homebrew sloppy-gyre is a possibility on the 06z gfs? Maybe it will even be instantly vertically stacked with a single COC instead of being a Cape Verde cat 2 with four eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 If Leslie still isn't out there in a 10 days (as shown on GFS) tropical waves at prime time of the season might have a chance to get close enough to at least be interesting. Some of the GFS ensemble spaghetti at 240 hours is picking up on the weak Euro Day 10 disturbance, so if there isn't a giant escape hatch somewhere around 60ºW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Actually, that's exactly it I know you too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Maybe it will even be instantly vertically stacked with a single COC instead of being a Cape Verde cat 2 with four eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Can someone please turn off the crap-canes? I want Michael to be a decent storm. AL, 99, 2012090206, , BEST, 0, 283N, 376W, 25, 1015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Can someone please turn off the crap-canes? I want Michael to be a decent storm. AL, 99, 2012090206, , BEST, 0, 283N, 376W, 25, 1015 The vertical instability in the Atlantic has been below average for several months now: Easterly LLJ aside, this may be contributing to the slop-canes we have seen this year. Recall the abnormally high ratio of weak-intense storms last year when the vertical instability was low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 If Leslie still isn't out there in a 10 days (as shown on GFS) tropical waves at prime time of the season might have a chance to get close enough to at least be interesting. Some of the GFS ensemble spaghetti at 240 hours is picking up on the weak Euro Day 10 disturbance, so if there isn't a giant escape hatch somewhere around 60ºW... 0Z Euro looks a lot like the 12Z Euro as far as holding out some hope. Wishcasting a bit, but as it gets to mid-September/the Equinox, maybe wavelengths will shorten, and the semi-permanent EC troughing will tighten up a bit. Anyway, Euro is semi-persistent, and I see 4 members of the 6Z GEFS with 1004 mb or stronger lows in vicinity of Euro low at Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 And then plbbbbbbbbbtttttt We have to get to that point first. The 12Z GFS likes the Western Gulf. Rainer or not, it's that time of the year when 'home grown' activity and stalled boundaries raise an eyebrow. And I don't mean Helene part deux, either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Liking the potential for some good ole September homebrew during the middle of the month. Can't say I'm enjoying all of the middle-of-nowhere storms so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2012 Author Share Posted September 2, 2012 Maybe it will even be instantly vertically stacked with a single COC instead of being a Cape Verde cat 2 with four eyes. Sassycane. Liking the potential for some good ole September homebrew during the middle of the month. I'd like that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The lemon: Persistent convection is the only requirement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Oh lord no... A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Liking the potential for some good ole September homebrew during the middle of the month. Can't say I'm enjoying all of the middle-of-nowhere storms so far. Agreed. Been keying in on this signal a week from yesterday. My only uncertanties is how much ENSO will evolve in a couple of weeks? I'm thinking not too much but it's small concern in the back of my head. Further, this filtered OLR diagram shows a strong MJO signal projected into the forecast. The left string of the first plot says this plot is filtered OLR... could you please provide where this plot is, how it is filtered (space-time?), and how the forecast is projected. My space-time filtered VP200 hovmollers, and maps, suggest that the current weakening of the RMM phase space diagrams is a result of the superpostition between opposite signed anomalies of Kelvin filtered VP200 and MJO filtered VP200. However this filted OLR panel suggests we may see a period of increased tropical cyclone activity towards the latter half of September-early October... which is fine with me becuase it suggests I will be busy down in VA for the conclusion of the HS3 campaign! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The lemon: Persistent convection is the only requirement now. Circulation looks a tad more vigorous today, though it's still struggling with shear. Only a little relaxation of the shear would bring this little cyclone to TD status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Look out for that tropical wave at 30 W 13 N. It is over heavy shear from the south and the NW, but in a few days the wave will be in more favorable waters with less dry air and decreasing shear. Because Leslie is so slow will the wave be forced to go south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Because Leslie is so slow will the wave be forced to go south? Low pressures don't bounce off each other or block the movement of each other. If the wave were to get close enough to Leslie to interact (which is much, much, much closer than they are now) they'd rotate around each other cyclonically (well, honestly the wave would do most of the rotating) which means it would be forced NORTH, not South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Circulation looks a tad more vigorous today, though it's still struggling with shear. Only a little relaxation of the shear would bring this little cyclone to TD status. Looks like 99L is trying to become little Mickey. Convection has persisted over the center, though it's still sheared, and convection isn't very deep. Models show that upper level conditions will be marginally favorable, but still conducive for some slow development...especially if it can keep east of the building large anticyclone associated to Leslie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks quite active, although crappy for the most part, with all the lows trying to escape from the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Quantity not quality continues...except for Leslie perhaps of course (nice 917 mb there)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks quite active, although crappy for the most part, with all the lows trying to escape from the tropics does that say 917! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 does that say 917! Yep...but it goes down to 914mb 48 hours after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 does that say 917! Yes, probably a Cat 4/5 there, good for ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Also, that Euro run shows 2 fujiwhara interactions between two different pairs of cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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