HurricaneJosh Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 Great. I disagree with those other viewpoints. Cool. To me, any tropical cyclone is interesting, so I find anyone who has hyped up interests of a tropical wave that is barely clinging on to life which models are luke-warm to nonexistent on and constantly whines and complains about actual systems north of 30 N to be quite puzzling. Don't be puzzled-- just don't join in the discussion if you don't want to talk about it. Kinda simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Cool. Don't be puzzled-- just don't join in the discussion if you don't want to talk about it. Kinda simple. I agree. It is kind of simple. So will you be doing that in the future with respect to midlatitude systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I can feel the hostility in this thread before I even clicked on it... Josh, Blizz does have a point, Luis and Fabian both were great storms. Allen 1980, Gloria 1985, Gilbert 1988, Hugo 1989, Fran 1996, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Bertha may have only been a Cat 2 at landfall in the US, but it had to be the most beautiful tropical wave ever to move off the African coast in the TWC/John Hope era. July 4th holiday weekend and watching what looked like it was already a cyclone. Anyone have old 1996 African coast satellite loops? This is so OT, but if ye asks...ye shall receive! ======================================= ECMWF ensembles mean has a nice signal for a fish. You'll have to excuse me while I go look at CV storms long since passed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Should I start a sucky Azores threat thread? (I can guess the answer, actually...) Too late I am curious about TD 8 as far as to whether it could possibly bring hurricane conditions to the Azores, despite SSTs in the low 20s. Disco (at link) suggests it doesn't get strong enough to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Since it is slow, and nobody seems to want to talk about Azores Action, Euro has next wave of interest approaching the coast. Gaining latitude at the end of the run, but the weakness it is heading towards might be starting to shrink at tau 240. Or not. Hard to tell in an animation w/ 24 hour time steps. Interestingly enough, looks like only 1 of 20 GFS ensemble members likes the Euro system at tau 240. Euro may be suggesting something in the Gulf, maybe more from the front than the corpse of TD #7. Hard to say, and not wild enthusiasm from the model. GFS spaghetti gets more colorful in about 2 weeks over the MDR. Which is an improvement from mid July when even the spaghetti bowl was clean. 18Z GFS loses enthusiasm somewhat for the Euro wave at the truncation, but continues it Westward as a trackable feature, and perhaps slower development reduces fi****ude. fish i tude. Has a healthy wave NNE of Puerto Rico in 10 days. Loses even that a little later, but that might be an artifact of the resolution reduction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't see any scenario of a USA major hurricane landfall in August. That leaves us just a few short weeks before SST's begin to drop and the season wanes until next year. The odds are probably greater than 85% that the USA escapes this season unscathed. GFS and EURO say it will be nearly impossible for a cape verde wave to make it across. And there are zero hints of any homebrew stuff. The GFS BOC/GOM storm is a fantasy that will never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't see any scenario of a USA major hurricane landfall in August. That leaves us just a few short weeks before SST's begin to drop and the season wanes until next year. The odds are probably greater than 85% that the USA escapes this season unscathed. GFS and EURO say it will be nearly impossible for a cape verde wave to make it across. And there are zero hints of any homebrew stuff. The GFS BOC/GOM storm is a fantasy that will never happen. I myself had that attitude just a few years ago. I waited a couple more weeks, the very end of August. Looked at 2 week 500 mb steering from operational and ensembles, and declared my region to be season over. Edit in bold - and I was wrong. And that (being pessimistic and wrong) reinforced the optimism I first developed a few weeks before the Big 1978 Blizzard, when Tex Antoine or whoever was on TV forecasting the evening's snow to change to rain. And it never did. And I missed a day of school with nuns. Ivan didn't form until September. We don't have details yet to conclusively say the next AEW, or the one that will follow 2 or 3 days after that, and the one after that, will fish. We should have a front in the Gulf in a few days, and the possibly the decaying corpse of TD 7 getitng entrained in that. Courage! If the attitude doesn't improve, Monty Python U-Tubes are next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Yes hi, I'll take a developing tropical system over the Bahamas with a ridge overhead... Thursday, August 16, 2012NOAA42 is scheduled for an Ocean Heat Content flight this Thursday (8/16). The primary goal of this flight is to sample the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is an ocean eddy and a cold region just northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula that is of research interest. The plan is to drop ocean measuring expendable instruments such as (AXCPS, AXBTs and AXCTDs) to sample the ocean. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Yes hi, I'll take a developing tropical system over the Bahamas with a ridge overhead... Wow. Imagine a Rita redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 That's some high octane stuff in the GoM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 It's a damn shame that things are so "lame" (to put it lightly) I've been doing a ton of reading and poking around in the HFIP sites today. There are some really incredible products/models that would be more than interesting to test out on a real MDR system. The archived stuff alone is very promising. FINALLY found my baby, the fully operational GFS EnKF. Also like the whole set of WRFs that have been included for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I was thinking about the Josh/PSUBlizz discussion of different types of tropical afficonados. It seemed a bit like a single malt whiskey fan arguing with a California wine fan. Nobody is wrong, just different tastes. Josh appears to be a Cluster 4 fan. The most rare, but the highest quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The 00z GFS answers my prayer wish for a decent CV system. Now I just need it to actually happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 <ahem> Fabian- 2003 Isabel- 2003 Frances- 2004 Ivan- 2004 Dean- 2007 Ike- 2008 ----------- Total: 6 Georges- 1998 Fran- 1996 Bertha- 1996 Luis- 1995 Andrew- 1992 -------- Total: 5 Note that only 1 of 7 El Nino's of this period (although that one had two of these storms) had any of these notable CV type storms whereas 3 of 7 La Nina's and 4 of 7 neutrals had them. El Nino's definitely make it more of a challenge, which isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The 00z GFS answers my prayer for a decent CV system. Now I just need it to actually happen... Should've prayed for a Bahamas system under a ridge. That stuff is nothing but fish food. Good run though, at least it'll be something to track if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Should've prayed for a Bahamas system under a ridge. That stuff is nothing but fish food. Good run though, at least it'll be something to track if it comes to fruition. This is true. A persistent weakness at 50w will protect the USA. How many times is the GFS right on its 200+ hour forecasts? Well, if it's showing a fish, you can take it to the bank. Now if it were showing a US hit I would be holding my breath each and every run waiting for the inevitable flip to the fish solution. But with it already showing fish, you better believe that 200+ hour forecast will be surprisingly 100% right. It's amazing just how hard it is for a cat 3 to get within 1000 miles of the US let alone make landfall. Makes you appreciate 2004 and 2005 that much more. This is a brutal stretch for a hurricane enthusiast to endure and it must end at some point. I have so little hope for this next cape verde system though I don't even want to see another model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Should've prayed for a Bahamas system under a ridge. That stuff is nothing but fish food. Good run though, at least it'll be something to track if it comes to fruition. Eh, I just want a storm at this point. We're in the peak of the season with only a decent pattern. Not going to wish for something that rare. We should see something off of Africa today. Probably will become 94L as well. ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL have the wave as a strong low in 48 hours. ECM has a W/WSW motion after the Verdes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 I can feel the hostility in this thread before I even clicked on it... Josh, Blizz does have a point, Luis and Fabian both were great storms. Allen 1980, Gloria 1985, Gilbert 1988, Hugo 1989, Fran 1996, etc. There's no hostility between Blizz and me-- we're friends. It all depends what you find interesting. Of course some of the biggest hurricanes to hit the USA were of Cape Verde origins-- this is undisputed and no one suggested otherwise. Whether it's twice a decade or three times a decade, or even a whopping four, my point is that CV cyclones mostly end up being boring-- unless you're into fish. If you want to get rich, just bet $100 that every new CV cyclone will fish or die prematurely. Despite occasional setbacks, you'll end up in a Beverly Hills mansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I'm sure you'd like to get into the eye of a Gilbert redux on the Yucatan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 I'm sure you'd like to get into the eye of a Gilbert redux on the Yucatan... Ooooooooh yeah. Can't deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 This is true. A persistent weakness at 50w will protect the USA. How many times is the GFS right on its 200+ hour forecasts? Well, if it's showing a fish, you can take it to the bank. Now if it were showing a US hit I would be holding my breath each and every run waiting for the inevitable flip to the fish solution. But with it already showing fish, you better believe that 200+ hour forecast will be surprisingly 100% right. It's amazing just how hard it is for a cat 3 to get within 1000 miles of the US let alone make landfall. Makes you appreciate 2004 and 2005 that much more. This is a brutal stretch for a hurricane enthusiast to endure and it must end at some point. I have so little hope for this next cape verde system though I don't even want to see another model run. Thanks for the insight, rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Thanks for the insight, rainstorm. But there hasn't been a heatwave in London? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Haha to be fair, London is going to get a short lived burst of hotter weather this weekend Does look to be a decent weakness for this to move into but you never quite know. At least this one won't lift NW right away like Gordon did and we could get some development in an area of warmer waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Euro suggests a fish, but perhaps a very photogenic fish. And we have a thread for Gordon, potential Azores Azz-stomper. Edit- outer GFDL and HWRF grids for Gordon show potentially photogenic fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Yes hi, I'll take a developing tropical system over the Bahamas with a ridge overhead... I posted something back, I believe in version 1 of the general Atlantic tropics thread. A paper about MPI as a function of SST. MPI increases sharpy with increasing SST between 26 and 29º, after that the rate of increase of MPI with increasing SST drops dramatically. Or more bang for the bug between 27 and 29º than between 29 and 31º. I also noted, at other weather forums, it is an annual occurence mid-August, "the Gulf of Mexico is boiling, something has to pop". Most years, nothing 'pops', Autumn comes with fronts, cooler airmasses, increasing decrease in insolation, and offshore winds and upwelling. And then we wait for June of the next year. Of course, if something does approach the Yucatan, Tamaulipas or Louisiana, there is a yellow brick road for those storms to follow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Been staring at the CFS, long range ensembles, etc- never mind the apparent fish-ness of the next system or two on the models, I think the pattern will be favorable late month for systems to at least threaten the Eastern Gulf and East Coast. If storms do fish, they'll fish fairly close. And if the recent CFS guidance, and my interpretation is correct, the possibilities for early to mid September action may reach more of the Gulf Coast. I have a feeling the season 'ends' early, but it doesn't appear the ENSO has shut things down yet. Just my amateur, eternal optimist, glass half full opinion. To further encourage someone who seemed a little down yesterday late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Who is forwarding Ed my medium range forecasts? In all seriousness, good post, Ed. That's very close to what I am thinking for the next 3 weeks, though I am much more bearish on the Gulf in mid-Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Can't post them here, but the ECMWF day 11-15 ensembles support what you posted here. The 500 mb pattern has two large positive anomalies, one centered between the Azores and Bermuda, the other between Hudson Bay and SE Canada. Been staring at the CFS, long range ensembles, etc- never mind the apparent fish-ness of the next system or two on the models, I think the pattern will be favorable late month for systems to at least threaten the Eastern Gulf and East Coast. If storms do fish, they'll fish fairly close. And if the recent CFS guidance, and my interpretation is correct, the possibilities for early to mid September action may reach more of the Gulf Coast. I have a feeling the season 'ends' early, but it doesn't appear the ENSO has shut things down yet. Just my amateur, eternal optimist, glass half full opinion. To further encourage someone who seemed a little down yesterday late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Who is forwarding Ed my medium range forecasts? My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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