Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II

[Ed Lizard]

I think Dean would argue with you on that comment

How can a cat-5 hurricane not be more exciting than a overall poorly developed system that managed in the last minute to become a semi-respectable hurricane.

Nope August 2007 wins...2 category-5's beats this August without even trying (now wait for something big to blow up right at the end!)

I actually meant 1997. OK, 2007 was not not infinitely more exciting...

[Scott747]

07 was easily one of the greatest seasons on record based on a simple two week window.

[Floydbuster]

I personally think Isaac is a future monster. Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike....

[Ed Lizard]

Really, I meant 1997. The centuries confused me. That was a season with a quick start and a very slow prime time.

Not exactly like this year, obviously. This year's SOI isn't buried in the basement. But I was reminded a little.

[Superstorm93]

"Strongest" GFS run yet with the Ex-TD7 spin-off

A little too much land interaction and not enough latitude.

WRT the rest of the run, it looks like "Two And A Half Fish"

[HurricaneJosh]

[gulfcane]

I'm still undecided whether this is a "bend over it's goin to MX storm" or a legitimate hurricane threat to the USA. The 3rd option would inland/no development. I'll know for sure after a couple more model runs. Typically when the GFS even hints that MX is possibility you better find the lube and take it. GFS is showing a really nice trough though that which would take it north. We'll see.

Edit: I actually think no development or upper TX is more likely than MX or south TX. That trough would easily take this due N to landfall IMO. I don't buy the west push at the end which the 0z has.

[hurricaneman]

I believe the next player is currently over west Africa, that blob looks awesome, the GFS seems IMO to be having this come off the coast too far north, I personally think that the Euro has a better handle on this blob

Image

[nodoz]

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO

1. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE

CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS GRADUALLY

BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#" id="_GPLITA_0" style="text-decoration:underline" title="Powered by Text-Enhance">DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...

OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH TODAY AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY

THURSDAY.

[Ed Lizard]

SSTs near the Azores appear to be in the lower 20s.

Since TD #7 appears more likely than not to stay dead, and nothing else looks to be on the horizon, I have to wonder, can 93L bring hurricane force conditions to the Azores? Almost a New York/SNE Tropical type issue, really. Can we get a decent storm in the upper 30s North? Other issue, as far as the Azores, if this is a transitioning system, heavily right side loaded, does it pass North or South of the islands?

Cloud top temps look pretty "meh", but 93L appears to have a closed surface low, judging by satellite.

[Superstorm93]

Stage looks set for a CV storm.

12z ECMWF has a tropical storm making a run for the "graveyard"

[Ed Lizard]

Since it is slow, and nobody seems to want to talk about Azores Action, Euro has next wave of interest approaching the coast. Gaining latitude at the end of the run, but the weakness it is heading towards might be starting to shrink at tau 240. Or not. Hard to tell in an animation w/ 24 hour time steps.

Interestingly enough, looks like only 1 of 20 GFS ensemble members likes the Euro system at tau 240. Euro may be suggesting something in the Gulf, maybe more from the front than the corpse of TD #7. Hard to say, and not wild enthusiasm from the model. GFS spaghetti gets more colorful in about 2 weeks over the MDR. Which is an improvement from mid July when even the spaghetti bowl was clean.

[Superstorm93]

"Sucky" 93L has been renumbered to "sucky" TD8

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al082012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208151933
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[am19psu]

"Sucky" 93L has been renumbered to "sucky" TD8

That sucks.

[Ed Lizard]

That sucks.

Should I start a sucky Azores threat thread?

(I can guess the answer, actually...)

[HurricaneJosh]

Stage looks set for a CV storm.

<yawn>

The weather phenomenon that teases 100% of the time and pays off about 4% of the time.

[Ed Lizard]

<yawn>

The weather phenomenon that teases 100% of the time and pays off about 4% of the time.

1938 and the Great Galveston Hurricane were Cape Verde storms.

/ducks

[HurricaneJosh]

1938 and the Great Galveston Hurricane were Cape Verde storms.

/ducks

Once or twice per decade, one of them becomes interesting. Whatevz.

[HurricaneJosh]

Omg, I am not going to get into a debate about whether Cape Verde hurricanes are fun to track. I say if you enjoy spending two weeks tracking a fish, go for it! Free country.

[Ed Lizard]

Once or twice per decade, one of them becomes interesting. Whatevz.

I got thinking about 1935. Not including the fact that there wouldn't be a safe spot in the Keys if the Labor Day storm repeated. Perhaps the Labor Day storm shifted slightly Northward, to make landfall on the mainland around Homestead. Would an i-Cyclone chase have occured for a storm reported to be only a Cat 1 hurricane a day prior to Florida landfall? I guess in these modern days we'd have the advantage of forum red tags and models. Curious if this storm didn't have a longer life than was recorded back in the pre-satellite era as well, and if it might have been more intense than credited in the Bahamas...

Except for the danger, that would have been a storm to chase...

The passage of the hurricane is graphically described in a report submitted by J.E. Duane, cooperative observer for the Weather Bureau, and in charge of a fishing camp on Long Key, over which the center passed. Extracts from his report follow, in the chronological order of his observations:

• September 2:
  2 p.m.---Barometer falling; heavy sea swell and a high tide; heavy rain squalls continued. Wind from N. or NNE., force 6.
  3 p.m.---Ocean swells had changed; this change noted was that large waves were rolling in from SE., somewhat against winds which were still in N. or NE.
  4 p.m.---Wind still N., increasing to force 9. Barometer dropping 0.01 every five minutes. Rain continued.
  5 p.m.---Wind N., hurricane force. Swells from SE.
  6 p.m.---Barometer 28.04; still falling. Heavy rains. Wind still N., hurricane force and increasing. Water rising on north side of island.
  6:45 p.m.---Barometer 27.90. Wind backing to NW., increasing; plenty of flying timbers and heavy timber, too---seemed it made no difference as to weight and size. A beam 6 by 8 inches, about 18 feet long, was blown from north side of camp, about 300 yards, through observer's house, wrecking it and nearly striking 3 persons. Water 3 feet deep from top of railroad grade, or about 16 feet.
  7 p.m.---We were now located in main lodge building of camp; flying timbers had begun to wreck this lodge, and it was shaking on every blast. Water had now reached level of railway on north side of camp. (Ed. Note---This was water rapidly piled up from the shallow expanse of Florida Bay, under the drive of northerly hurricane winds.)
  9 p.m.---No signs of storm letting up. Barometer still falling very fast.
  9:20 p.m.---Barometer 27.22 inches; wind abated. We now heard other noises than the wind and knew center of storm was over us. We now head for the last and only cottage that I think can or will stand the blow due to arrive shortly. All hands, 20 in number, gather in this cottage. During this lull the sky is clear to northward, stars shining brightly and a very light breeze continued; no flat calm. About the middle of the lull, which lasted a timed 55 minutes, the sea began to lift up, it seemed, and rise very fast; this from ocean side of camp. I put my flashlight out on sea and could see walls of water which seemed many feet high. I had to race fast to regain entrance of cottage, but water caught me waist deep, although writer was only about 60 feet from doorway of cottage. Water lifted cottage from its foundations, and it floated.
  10:10 p.m.---Barometer now 27.02 inches; wind beginning to blow from SSW.
  10:15 p.m.--The first blast from SSW., full force. House now breaking up---wind seemed stronger than any time during the storm. I glanced at the barometer which read 26.98 inches, dropped it in water and was blown outside into sea; got hung up in broken fronds of coconut tree and hung on for dear life. I was then struck by some object and knocked unconscious.
  
  • September 3:
    2:25 p.m.---I became conscious in tree and found I was lodged about 20 feet above ground. All water had disappeared from island; the cottage had been blown back on the island, from whence the sea receded and left it with all people safe.
    Hurricane winds continued till 5 a.m. and during this period terrific lightning flashes were seen. After 5 a.m. strong gales continued throughout the day with very heavy rain.
    

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/labor_day/labor_article.html

http://www.aoml.noaa..._day/index.html

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Once or twice per decade, one of them becomes interesting. Whatevz.

<ahem>

Fabian- 2003

Isabel- 2003

Frances- 2004

Ivan- 2004

Dean- 2007

Ike- 2008

-----------

Total: 6

Georges- 1998

Fran- 1996

Bertha- 1996

Luis- 1995

Andrew- 1992

--------

Total: 5

[HurricaneJosh]

<ahem>

Ivan- 2004

Dean- 2007

-----------

Total: 2

Georges- 1998

Andrew- 1992

--------

Total: 2

Fixed your post. Thx.

As I was saying...

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Fixed your post. Thx.

As I was saying...

Lol, incorrect. Cape Verde storms are defined by classification east of 40 W, for one.

Two, every single storm I listed did something awesome. Just because you're snobby doesn't mean they didn't.

[HurricaneJosh]

Lol, incorrect. Cape Verde storms are defined by classification east of 40 W, for one.

Lol, incorrect. If you were familiar with this topic, you would know that there is no universally agreed-up definition of "Cape Verde hurricane". The fact that you didn't know this tells me you haven't ever delved deeply into this topic. Jorge and I did a lot of research about this topic and made a thread about it a while ago-- I'll dig it up for you.

Two, every single storm I listed did something awesome. Just because you're snobby doesn't mean they didn't.

Wait, so we're arguing about my tastes and what I find interesting? Really?

[wxmx]

I don't like how a wave over Africa is causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Lol, incorrect. If you were familiar with this topic, you would know that there is no universally agreed-up definition of "Cape Verde hurricane". The fact that you didn't know this tells me you haven't ever delved deeply into this topic. Jorge and I did a lot of research about this topic and made a thread about it a while ago-- I'll dig it up for you.

I tend to go by the John Hope rule on this one. It works for the vast majority of people.

Wait, so we're arguing about my tastes and what I find interesting? Really?

You brought it into the discussion when you slashed Fabian and Luis out... two amazing storms which had amazing impacts.

[Scott747]

I don't like how a wave over Africa is causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes.

[Ed Lizard]

Bertha may have only been a Cat 2 at landfall in the US, but it had to be the most beautiful tropical wave ever to move off the African coast in the TWC/John Hope era. July 4th holiday weekend and watching what looked like it was already a cyclone.

Anyone have old 1996 African coast satellite loops?

[HurricaneJosh]

I tend to go by the John Hope rule on this one. It works for the vast majority of people.

I tend to accept that there are a wide variety of viewpoints on this topic, and I don't presume to speak for the entire research community.

You brought it into the discussion when you slashed Fabian and Luis out... two amazing storms which had amazing impacts.

This from the same guy who just flipped out and scolded others for finding an active disturbance interesting. To each his own, perhaps?

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I tend to accept that there are a wide variety of viewpoints on this topic, and I don't presume to speak for the entire research community.

Great. I disagree with those other viewpoints.

This from the same guy who just flipped out and scolded others for finding an active disturbance interesting. To each his own, perhaps?

To me, any tropical cyclone is interesting, so I find anyone who has hyped up interests of a tropical wave that is barely clinging on to life which models are luke-warm to nonexistent on and constantly whines and complains about actual systems north of 30 N to be quite puzzling.