Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I'm sailing to Bermuda from NYC next Sunday and return the next weekend. Should I be a bit nervous given that forecast? Bermuda Triangle talk aside, globals more benign looking on 0Z runs than 12Z runs, but for something 6 to 13 days out in the sub-tropics and approaching the uptick in normal seasonal activity, a certain degree of nervousness would seem a good thing. If there is a TC conceivable within the window to arrive while at sea, I wouldn't in a yacht. If it is a cruise ship versus a yacht, I think they are usually pretty good at avoiding weather, but dramamine would seem a cheap safety measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I'm sailing to Bermuda from NYC next Sunday and return the next weekend. Should I be a bit nervous given that forecast? i would be very CAUTIOUS sailing into bermuda during a climo time frame that is historically active ocean swells can travel large distances away from cyclone's so i'd just monitor the situation and future model runs...you could get there fine but then be in the cross-hairs on way back ...your getting their by sail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Thanks everyone. i would be very CAUTIOUS sailing into bermuda during a climo time frame that is historically active ocean swells can travel large distances away from cyclone's so i'd just monitor the situation and future model runs...you could get there fine but then be in the cross-hairs on way back ...your getting their by sail? When we planned we knew there was a chance we'd end up in Canada or somewhere else. We're sailing on Holland America's Veendam, which is a fairly small cruise ship. I prefer to know I'm on an ocean so that doesn't bother me at all, more concerned about them cancelling Bermuda or leaving a few days early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Despite the MDR being favorable...I don't really see any exciting hints on the globals that they normally would show in such a pattern. Maybe this changes in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 fyp Silly me...I neglected the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 One boring cycle of globals after yesterday's 12Z fun and frolics, I'm going anti-Rainstorm enthusiastic. Still glass 13/32nd optimistc of excitement in next 2 weeks. And glass 7/16th optimistic at 3 pm if even one global, even the Nogaps, KMA, JMA or NoGaps, shows something in the 12Z cycle. 1/2 full optimistic for the GFS or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Silly me...I neglected the Azores. I guess the rainstorm joke was too obscure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I guess the rainstorm joke was too obscure I got it. See my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I guess the rainstorm joke was too obscure LOL, I wasn't trying to go rainstorm. Usually the GFS and Euro hold onto the active idea for several runs..but like I said..could change in a few runs with the area remaining favorable. It was more anecdotal than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Despite the MDR being favorable...I don't really see any exciting hints on the globals that they normally would show in such a pattern. Maybe this changes in a few days. Not even on the jazzy Canadian which loves storms? I posted this article on the Mid Atlantic forum. Most mets and educated enthusiasts probably already know whats in the article but I thought it did a nice job of snowing the how the velocity potential changes with MJO phase while also showing a nice graphic emphasizing how phases 2 and 3 are more favorable to RI than phases 7 or 8. http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/klotzbach2012.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Hi all, Just ran the dry-run HS3 (dry run is scheduled for this week and next) and HRD map discussions... Thought I'd let everyone know what we are thinking: HS3 is interested in the tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic for the Saharan air layer-easterly wave interaction. For HRD- there is general interest in the remanent TD-7 and Invest 93. From Chris Landsea's word of mouth- NHC has a 60% chance of development for 93L in their experimental extended range forecast, and 70%* chance of development of the remanents of TD-7 over the Bay of Campeche. The BOC redevelopment brings some interest to folks in the Gulf states. As for the large-scale environment, we should be expecting the passage of the convectively active phase of a strong convectively-coupled Kelvin wave superimposed with the active phase of the MJO. As most are already saying here, we may expect the MDR to start cooking in the next 1-2 weeks. RMM phases 1-4 are favorable for Atlantic Hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Not even on the jazzy Canadian which loves storms? I posted this article on the Mid Atlantic forum. Most mets and educated enthusiasts probably already know whats in the article but I thought it did a nice job of snowing the how the velocity potential changes with MJO phase while also showing a nice graphic emphasizing how phases 2 and 3 are more favorable to RI than phases 7 or 8. http://typhoon.atmos...otzbach2012.pdf Yeah that's a good article. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Hi all, Just ran the dry-run HS3 (dry run is scheduled for this week and next) and HRD map discussions... Thought I'd let everyone know what we are thinking: HS3 is interested in the tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic for the Saharan air layer-easterly wave interaction. For HRD- there is general interest in the remanent TD-7 and Invest 93. From Chris Landsea's word of mouth- NHC has a 60% chance of development for 93L in their experimental extended range forecast, and 70%* chance of development of the remanents of TD-7 over the Bay of Campeche. The BOC redevelopment brings some interest to folks in the Gulf states. As for the large-scale environment, we should be expecting the passage of the convectively active phase of a strong convectively-coupled Kelvin wave superimposed with the active phase of the MJO. As most are already saying here, we may expect the MDR to start cooking in the next 1-2 weeks. RMM phases 1-4 are favorable for Atlantic Hurricanes. Excellent information Mike! Many thanks for sharing! Yesterdays ECMWF actually looked like a pretty plausible outcome given the time of year and how strong our AEWs have been as of late. I have no clue why the global models have the Atlantic virtually dead for the next 7-10 days. Everything favors a very steep increase in activity during the 8/15-9/5 period. Would be a huge shame to waste this MJO pattern that we're entering. Keep us posted as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Looks like 93L is finally getting its act together. While its probably a bit north to feel the full impact of the CCKW passing to its south, the basin wide divergence is certainly not hurting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Looks like 93L is finally getting its act together. While its probably a bit north to feel the full impact of the CCKW passing to its south, the basin wide divergence is certainly not hurting right now. Just as NHC may be losing interest. I don't see SHIPs since 18Z yesterday. Just ex-7 and Hector. An Azores storm would provide interest, and I see a couple models leaning that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 One boring cycle of globals after yesterday's 12Z fun and frolics, I'm going anti-Rainstorm enthusiastic. Still glass 13/32nd optimistc of excitement in next 2 weeks. And glass 7/16th optimistic at 3 pm if even one global, even the Nogaps, KMA, JMA or NoGaps, shows something in the 12Z cycle. 1/2 full optimistic for the GFS or Euro. Coupla more boring global cycles, 12Z GFS has a fish before the res chop, and a fantasy storm at the very end mid-Atlantic, and maybe gets a depression or minimal storm out of ex-TD 7, and I'm dropping the optimism level for chaseable action, or at least something passing close enough to, say, Cape Cod, for a burst of forum activity to 11/32nds glass full for the next 2 weeks. If we weren't going until almost the end of August, could go lower than 5/8th. Lower than that even except last night's NAEFs seem to suggest a perturbation or two with something coming out of the Carla Cradle, East of where ex-7 is now, and headed for South Texas. GEM 20, it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Perhaps Adam and r...s.... won't be bored after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 C'mon. I want some low-latitude action. Ernie was an awesome appetizer. Now let's get the real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Sucky Invest 93L is going to be a sucky tropical storm by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Sucky Invest 93L is going to be a sucky tropical storm by tomorrow evening. Who really wanted Gordon to be a big storm anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Sucky Invest 93L is going to be a sucky tropical storm by tomorrow evening. At this rate, it might be faster than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 Who really wanted Gordon to be a big storm anyways? Agreed. I don't want that name in my portfolio-- it's nerdy. Helene is cool. Ernie was OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Agreed. I don't want that name in my portfolio-- it's nerdy. Helene is cool. Ernie was OK. I love Helene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Sucky Invest 93L is going to be a sucky tropical storm by tomorrow evening. Between what looks like a fish on the Euro, but still a storm, and a hint of developing Bret action (inside baseball) off NE Tamps. on the Euro, and more than 1 GFS ensemble member holding hope out for a solution like last nights Canadian perturbation #20 (except not a Cat 6), from 11/32 to 3/8ths glass full optimistic. That is 20 or 25% of the displayed perturbations... We're not going to start a separate thread when 93L wastes Gordon, are we? I'm glad Helene and Isaac may be saved for real storms. It looks closed, but the cloud tops could be colder for my tastes. I don't mind automatically mind a fish if it isn't a tease and has an excellent satellite presenation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 At this point, I find the lack of classic August action, interesting. That MJO better fix some things up, because the globals look 'sucky' at best for the next ten days. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 At this point, I find the lack of classic August action, interesting. That MJO better fix some things up, because the globals look 'sucky' at best for the next ten days. Sent from my 4G 2 Ernesto alone has made this August infinitely more exciting than August 2007. I mean literally, not figuratively, I am still cautiously optimistic on my 3.5/2/1 August picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I think Dean would argue with you on that comment How can a cat-5 hurricane not be more exciting than a overall poorly developed system that managed in the last minute to become a semi-respectable hurricane. Nope August 2007 wins...2 category-5's beats this August without even trying (now wait for something big to blow up right at the end!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Agreed. I don't want that name in my portfolio-- it's nerdy. Helene is cool. Ernie was OK. Gordon ramsey would beg to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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