Riptide Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Between TD 7 and the failed African wave 93L, I hope the rest of the season isn't a disaster. Pattern over North America is also extremely unfavorable for conus landfalls (A good thing, obviously). The issue is that this could be the 7th year without a major hurricane landfall, a remarkable statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 So much for that Super Wave... I almost wonder if that wave is splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I almost wonder if that wave is splitting. Hmm, very interesting development. You can see the wave has clearly split here (caution, takes a while to load) All the models appear to only indicate a region of strong 850 mb vorticity associated with the northern wave near the CV islands. While it appears to me that the southern one is almost as robust, none of the models really have it. Could the southern wave survive and take a much lower latitude track across the Atlantic? Probably not, but at least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Between TD 7 and the failed African wave 93L, I hope the rest of the season isn't a disaster. Pattern over North America is also extremely unfavorable for conus landfalls (A good thing, obviously). The issue is that this could be the 7th year without a major hurricane landfall, a remarkable statistic. Thanks, rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Hmm, very interesting development. You can see the wave has clearly split here (caution, takes a while to load) All the models appear to only indicate a region of strong 850 mb vorticity associated with the northern wave near the CV islands. While it appears to me that the southern one is almost as robust, none of the models really have it. Could the southern wave survive and take a much lower latitude track across the Atlantic? Probably not, but at least it's something to watch. I think there have been at least a couple AEWs that split and each generated a TC? Or I could be hallucinating. I think it's been a while since it has happened. If anyone remembers let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Thanks, rainstorm +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 The 0zGFS shows the low currently over Nigeria moving off Africa in 4.5 days and develops it in 6 days near 12N 28W, this feature has a good structure and is farther south than 93l ever got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 im not seeing anything on the GFS except a pretty bad overall pattern. I'll hold my enthusiam over anything still over Africa after the apparent can't miss forecasts for 93L at a similar point inland Africa. I suppose limited data points may have had something to do with that. Nothing obvious on globals, but it is about a month to the normal season peak, so no panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 TD 7 and 93L are virtually gone. Time to start with a clean slate for the rest of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Between TD 7 and the failed African wave 93L, I hope the rest of the season isn't a disaster. Pattern over North America is also extremely unfavorable for conus landfalls (A good thing, obviously). The issue is that this could be the 7th year without a major hurricane landfall, a remarkable statistic. Still way early for this but i agree its a remarkable statistic. Maybe we'll go another 4-5 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Still way early for this but i agree its a remarkable statistic. Maybe we'll go another 4-5 years lol. Please no, I want to see some good hurricane chases this year and also don't want HurricaneJosh to travel to foreign countries just to see a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 No loop current this year. Edit: Poor wording, it's a supressed loop cuirrent Step 3 http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/loopcurrent.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 No loop current this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 No loop current this year. Currents don't disappear... and what do you think those very warm spots in the GOM are? Next thing I'll read is that the Gulf Stream will disappear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Everything out of the caribbean is headed east through the Florida straights. No loop current was a bit of an exaggeration. Suppressed loop current is more accurate. And to clarify the loop current is what I call the thing that comes up from the Caribbean. The gyre in the middle of the gulf is an eddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Everything out of the caribbean is headed east through the Florida straights. No loop current was a bit of an exaggeration. Suppressed loop current is more accurate. And to clarify the loop current is what I call the thing that comes up from the Caribbean. The gyre in the middle of the gulf is an eddy. The loop current spins off an eddy approx every 11 months, which usually heads to the W to SW. The eddy in front of the coast of Tamaulipas was part of the loop current around Nov 2011, the bigger eddy just excised a few weeks ago...well ahead of the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 BTW, we are about to enter a couple of weeks of enhanced activity ...not just there's a strong CCKW propagating trough the basin, but there's also a good amplitude MJO wave on it's heels. Good writeup by Mike Ventrice, which include a few instructional graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 BTW, we are about to enter a couple of weeks of enhanced activity ...not just there's a strong CCKW propagating trough the basin, but there's also a good amplitude MJO wave on it's heels. Good writeup by Mike Ventrice, which include a few instructional graphics. True, but the zonally-elongated ridge that provided us with a great pattern for easterly waves to cross the Atlantic is in the process of breaking down. Which means the easterly waves that do develop are very likely to be fish food. Probably not much chance of anything local unless we can get some Caribbean genesis events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 True, but the zonally-elongated ridge that provided us with a great pattern for easterly waves to cross the Atlantic is in the process of breaking down. Which means the easterly waves that do develop are very likely to be fish food. Probably not much chance of anything local unless we can get some Caribbean genesis events. Do you think it will break soon? It doesn't look like next 10 days, but you are probably talking beyond that...what are you looking at? NAO in the short/medium term should favor zonal ridging across the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Do you think it will break soon? It doesn't look like next 10 days, but you are probably talking beyond that...what are you looking at? NAO in the short/medium term should favor zonal ridging across the Atlantic. Perhaps "break down" was a little strong. But clearly the ridge is weaker now than it was before with some "gaps" of lower height that could easily allow a cyclone to recurve. You can see this weakness in the 500 heights around 55W right now, closer to 65W a few days from now, followed by just generally low heights for an Atlantic ridge stretching all the way from 50W to 70W by the end of the week. So you're right, the ridge it still there, but it's not what it was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Interesting indeed. Would the potential system be feeling the East Coast flattish ridge and want to recurve. Or could it make it further West, and not start coming up until close enough to hit Florida, while avoiding more mountainous terrain of Greater Antilles? Nobody wants damage and incomnvenience for anybody that a TC would bring, but since they do happen, Florida has the best building codes, flat terrain, and a good road network, for chasers who would upload U-Tube videos. Who knows. 10 days out, can't be certain of anything. But it isn't automatic fish, anyway, if semi-accurate. Between this and GFS regenerating ex-TD 7 off Tamaulipas for possible Mexico chaser excitement, Glass exactly one half full optimistic on more quality video opportunities next 8 to 16 days. Op GFS at 10 days has a deeper trough that does scream fish for anything that might develop out MDR way, but I am an optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Based on the forecast state of the MJO, this seems like a plausible result. Obviously way to early to get into specifics with any features beyond 120 hours, but an active Atlantic basin is a decent possibility over the next 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Multiple cyclones under a ridge? Ill take that. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 Multiple cyclones under a ridge? Ill take that. Totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 8/15-20 is when I consider the real Atlantic hurricane season to begin. It's like a flip of a switch every year, you go from a few sputtering cyclones to several hurricanes at a time, and you usually don't start seeing the real monster hurricanes until about that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I'm sailing to Bermuda from NYC next Sunday and return the next weekend. Should I be a bit nervous given that forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I'm sailing to Bermuda from NYC next Sunday and return the next weekend. Should I be a bit nervous given that forecast? You should be fine. Thus far, we have no evidence to suggest the 12Z Euro wasn't an aberration. Other runs from earlier Euro/GFS suggest a weaker system. That said, you should monitor model trends in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Hi-res cloud cover output just to get things stirred up. MDR could be cooking for the next few weeks. Hopefully we can get some decent hurricanes out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I'm trying to remember the last time there were a simultaneous hurricane and tropical storm between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands south of 20oN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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