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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


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I really enjoy your videos, this guy however is a total joke. It's like watching HM (the accuweather one) when the models show a snowstorm in 10 days.

Thank you very much. A new update on Ernesto, 92L and the African wave will be posted in the Ernesto thread shortly. If you want to find out more about the history of the video updates, dating back to pre-YouTube days, here's a video showing some of the memorable updates from 2005 to 2010.

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If you thought Gustav and Ike were bad then I can't fathom what you would say had they developed a singular inner core with no double wind maximas. Hurricanes threatening the USA have had continuous eyewall replacement cycles induced in the days leading up to landfall.

You should probably go back and review the damage that Ike did. Ike isn't the 2nd costliest/3rd costliest w/inflation for no reason.

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You should probably go back and review the damage that Ike did. Ike isn't the 2nd costliest/3rd costliest w/inflation for no reason.

What the poster clearly doesn't understand is just how close we came to seeing the 'trigger pulled' upgrading Ike to a major just prior to landfall. Jack was on duty that morning and discussed it at some length at Conference. This is one of the primary reasons we have seen changes re: surge forecasts that are now being issued. There are many in the SE TX that will totally disagree that Ike was not a major and even in my yard I had sustained winds to 90 mph in the Western eye convective structure. I'll also add there were structures washed inland to I-10 in Chambers County. Ike was quickly dismissed by the mainstream media the following Monday with the collapse of the stock market and the 'real story' was never fully known beyond the Houston Metro area for that very reason. Steps off soup box...~sigh~

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I see NOAA increased their seasonal forecast and expect the much talked about El Nino to not be an issue during peak season...

12-17 Named Storms, (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:

5-8 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:

2-3 are expected to become Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-5, wind speeds at least 111 mph).

An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 75%-135% of the median.

http://www.cpc.ncep....hurricane.shtml

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I see NOAA increased their seasonal forecast and expect the much talked about El Nino to not be an issue during peak season...

http://www.cpc.ncep....hurricane.shtml

I was listening to their reasoning behind the updated forecast during the HRD map discussion conf call this afternoon... from what I interpreted it as, they bumped up their numbers due to the number of storms that have already developed this year. I was pretty let down from their scientific reasoning behind it.

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atl3.gif

~~~A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS

APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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93L Ahoy!

atl3.gif

~~~A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS

APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

I believe that this is the Tropical Wave that the GFS blew up into a monster in it's fantasy range off of the East Coast, should be interesting to track.

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As we have done in past years, let's refrain from starting a new Topic for every INVEST that is classified. We are entering a busy period and it may be best to wait until we have an actual system declared before we start a new thread...;)

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Some forecasters will not be too happy about all this MDR activity.

*raises hand*

MDR activity is the worst. It doesn't actually pose much of a threat, but clients get all excited about every tropical wave that comes off Africa. This is the worst time of year to be a private tropical forecaster.

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Of course going to need to get that shearing TUTT out the way if we are to get anything of real note out of all that MDR activity that may pop up in the next 2-3 weeks. I know normally 15-20th is around the time when the TUTT does snuff it, but who knows, we are in a weak El Nino right now (by SST's anyway!)

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*raises hand*

MDR activity is the worst. It doesn't actually pose much of a threat, but clients get all excited about every tropical wave that comes off Africa. This is the worst time of year to be a private tropical forecaster.

I'm actually okay with it as long as more of them develop this year versus last year. I want to see a **** ton of energy transferred to the midlatitudes this season after the way the last year + has been weatherwise.

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93L Ahoy!

atl3.gif

~~~A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS

APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

I am a little concerned there is no convection associated with the center of the storm during what is typically the "diurnal max" for precipitation over land. While the circulation is obviously very organized, this leaves me to believe that SAL or mid-latitude dry air has been ingested into the system already. This is already evident looking at total precipitable water along the African coastline.

20120807T000000anim72.gif

It will be interesting when we see this when this wave emerges off the African coast if we see a surge in convection during the diurnal max over open water. For more information on the diurnal cycle, see Alan Brammer's talk he gave during the Tropical AMS conference this April.

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I am a little concerned there is no convection associated with the center of the storm during what is typically the "diurnal max" for precipitation over land. While the circulation is obviously very organized, this leaves me to believe that SAL or mid-latitude dry air has been ingested into the system already. This is already evident looking at total precipitable water along the African coastline.

It will be interesting when we see this when this wave emerges off the African coast if we see a surge in convection during the diurnal max over open water. For more information on the diurnal cycle, see Alan Brammer's talk he gave during the Tropical AMS conference this April.

Take this for what its worth - my sister went on a tour at NHC today, of course I was sending her texts with questions to be asked, one was about the African Wave

She said, they (no name was given, so no idea who she spoke to) do not expect the wave to be as strong as it has been forecasted on models.

She also asked about 92L, they are keeping an eye on its convection before upgrading to a depression.

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I am a little concerned there is no convection associated with the center of the storm during what is typically the "diurnal max" for precipitation over land. While the circulation is obviously very organized, this leaves me to believe that SAL or mid-latitude dry air has been ingested into the system already. This is already evident looking at total precipitable water along the African coastline.

It will be interesting when we see this when this wave emerges off the African coast if we see a surge in convection during the diurnal max over open water. For more information on the diurnal cycle, see Alan Brammer's talk he gave during the Tropical AMS conference this April.

The dirunal maximum of convection over the Guinea Highlands is around 22-23 UTC... so there is still some time!

There is a great deal of dry air around the wave though.

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AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 171W, 25, 1004, DB

atl2.gif

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE

ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF

AFRICA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM

CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

------------------------------------------------

GTH PRELIM outlook

All aboard

prelim_gth_full.png

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the only thing mildly interesting out there today is the convection in the western caribbean. if it can stall and sit instead of move into land its something to watch.

I was just thinking that since NHC does issue lemons with near 0% probability of development, that blob deserves a 0% lemon. Shear doesn't look favorable, about 20 knots near the base of the TUTT, has no low level convergence or vorticity. (Well ventilated, however) And other than a random GFS ensemble perturbation now and then, and a prior run of the Canadian, no model support.

But as long as 0% lemons exist, I think it deserves one.

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