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August 2012 Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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Day 5 severe area highlighted for us!

A nice vort. max will be rolling into NY+PA, but I'm concerned about pre-frontal clouds and rain as well as weaker mid-level lapse rates. I am excited about the potential for some veering low-level winds and a good amount of speed shear. These along with the upper-level dynamics via the vort. max and right entrance region of a jet streak could make Friday interesting.

06z GFS digs the vort. max down even further... not sure if I trust that, though.

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A nice vort. max will be rolling into NY+PA, but I'm concerned about pre-frontal clouds and rain as well as weaker mid-level lapse rates. I am excited about the potential for some veering low-level winds and a good amount of speed shear. These along with the upper-level dynamics via the vort. max and right entrance region of a jet streak could make Friday interesting.

06z GFS digs the vort. max down even further... not sure if I trust that, though.

Cautious optimism seems the way to go for now I suppose.

I don't usually like closed 500 lows but it worked on June 1. That's a fun looking setup for Aug if it comes together right.

Woo storms

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Maybe Chincoteague or something?

No, that would be further south and the storms went north of OC. The area pictured though I doubt may be Ocean City if it was would be north of the boardwalk past 100th as thats where the open space would be pictured. That would be the only way, and there were a few strikes noticeable yesterday away from some of the storms, so it is possible. I'd think more of a Delaware beach would receive something like this as they were in the center of storms.

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No way that was in Ocean City, MD. I'm down here for the week, and all the storms missed us by a wide margin yesterday. Plus, I don't think there's anywhere in OC with that much open space.

i wasnt even 100% sure it's real but i dunno anything about the coastal areas around here

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12z euro is a little slower for Friday which is good I think. Actually, it looks fairly ideal based on what I have access to. Our area into PA might be main zone on this run.

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LWX already mentioning Friday

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT

LAKES STATES/OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD TO

THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SPOKES OF ENERGY

WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A

COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH

WILL ADD FORCING AND LIFT TO A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE

ENVIRONMENT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT STORM MODES AT DAY 5 BUT GIVEN THE

PATTERN SETUP PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF...LINE SEGMENTS/QLCS MODES

COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

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Having a dip in the Jet looks nice for once. Looks to be keeping us out of the Heatwave for a minute. Today was still muggy and a high of 90 in Manassas Va. On the other hand, Fri August 10 looks like there could be some Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in our area.

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