mappy Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 ah, i just reread what you said "other TV's" well hopefully it was only the comcast box that took the hit then and that TV is OK. So , from that warning, was there a confirmation for a tornado? There were no reports of any tornado or funnel cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I kind of have to back up mattie g here. This has been a debacle of a storm season in NoVA. I know I missed the derecho, but there have just been so few organized events, and so little rain. One way to look at it - total "storm season" rainfall (Apr-Aug) In the last 30 years at DCA, only 1991 and 1999 have ended up with less than 13" of precip. We are sitting at 10.39" right now. If we don't get more than an inch of rain during the rest of August, we will have the driest year-to-date on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Stayed high and dry here, but at least with all the clouds around the temps (high 84) were tolerable again. Seems my luck is changing wrt to the storms as we're getting missed more and more often now, but the worst of the summer is behind us so I'm happy - especially if this weekend is as nice as adevertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 The problem with our convective season to-date is a lack of organized storms, with the exception of 6/1 and 6/29. It's been our plague over the last few years (I think I cursed the region by moving here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 The problem with our convective season to-date is a lack of organized storms, with the exception of 6/1 and 6/29. It's been our plague over the last few years (I think I cursed the region by moving here). Must be it. Before you came we had pretty regular solid squall lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Must be it. Before you came we had pretty regular solid squall lines Anecdotal I know, but as a kid growing up in MD, all I remember was squall lines. Hardly knew thunderstorms occurred otherwise. They're pretty tough to come by nowadays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Anecdotal I know, but as a kid growing up in MD, all I remember was squall lines. Hardly knew thunderstorms occurred otherwise. They're pretty tough to come by nowadays... Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Anecdotal I know, but as a kid growing up in MD, all I remember was squall lines. Hardly knew thunderstorms occurred otherwise. They're pretty tough to come by nowadays... Same with me - I find it hard to believe there is not something to it. I remember in the late 90s and early 2000s every single slight risk day would result in a pretty solid line of storms rolling through the area. They weren't always severe with winds over 58mph but they usually formed into a solid line and packed a decent punch. I feel like ever since the mid to late 2000s we've been stuck with more isolated crap punctuated by the occasional derecho type line. But the garden variety squall lines have disappeared. These were back in the days when I'd sit waiting for the local radar on TWC on the 8s. Oh the memories lol. Perhaps it has to do with some large scale teleconnection or some sort of long term global cycle? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 The switch over to a +AMO regime in the late 90s is probably a culprit, and we've also had a -PDO during the last three summers. Those two combined would enhance ridging over the Plains, Midwest and Southeast, keeping the upper-level disturbances and their associated dynamics further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I kind of have to back up mattie g here. This has been a debacle of a storm season in NoVA. I know I missed the derecho, but there have just been so few organized events, and so little rain. One way to look at it - total "storm season" rainfall (Apr-Aug) In the last 30 years at DCA, only 1991 and 1999 have ended up with less than 13" of precip. We are sitting at 10.39" right now. If we don't get more than an inch of rain during the rest of August, we will have the driest year-to-date on record. Thanks, MN. But, of course, you put it far more eloquently than I...what with my whiny, Ji-like outburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 The switch over to a +AMO regime in the late 90s is probably a culprit, and we've also had a -PDO during the last three summers. Those two combined would enhance ridging over the Plains, Midwest and Southeast, keeping the upper-level disturbances and their associated dynamics further north. Wow. Sounds like that fits pretty well! Learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I always have a hard time completely buying memories of old... too bad wunderground radar archive only goes to 2005. I haven't been here long but don't notice any difference in convection except some years are better than others. To me it seems sort of natural we'd have a lot of broken lines with the apps to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Anecdotal I know, but as a kid growing up in MD, all I remember was squall lines. Hardly knew thunderstorms occurred otherwise. They're pretty tough to come by nowadays... I grew up in South Jersey, and I completely agree. I have actually been thinking the very same thing recently. I remember often sitting on our west-facing front porch, under our aluminum awning ( ) while we watched lines of storms blast in across the Delaware River. I just don't recall much in the way of popcorn-type storms. Not to say we didn't get them, but certainly not like what we've seen in this area recently. Interesting possible reasons mentioned by Ellinwood. The everyday weather layman like me wouldn't think about the larger-scale reasons why things could be different now, so it's neat to read about what might be some of the driving factors behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I grew up in South Jersey, and I completely agree. I have actually been thinking the very same thing recently. I remember often sitting on our west-facing front porch, under our aluminum awning ( ) while we watched lines of storms blast in across the Delaware River. I just don't recall much in the way of popcorn-type storms. Not to say we didn't get them, but certainly not like what we've seen in this area recently. Interesting possible reasons mentioned by Ellinwood. The everyday weather layman like me wouldn't think about the larger-scale reasons why things could be different now, so it's neat to read about what might be some of the driving factors behind it. Popcorn convection in summer is 100% natural -- I don't believe there has been any change there at least... unless there's some period in the past when the jet stream didn't shift north in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 "moderate risk" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 "moderate risk" https://twitter.com/...751155257470976 Heh I just saw that... I'll give him this one since he may not be specifying that it's a Moderate Risk as coined by the SPC, but instead it could be just a general term for the public. EDIT: Reading the context a bit more would seem to imply he's incorrectly using the SPC specifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Heh I just saw that... I'll give him this one since he may not be specifying that it's a Moderate Risk as coined by the SPC, but instead it could be just a general term for the public. EDIT: Reading the context a bit more would seem to imply he's incorrectly using the SPC specifications. As flawed as using the terminology is in "public", since everyone does it, they should try to stay with the actual terminology IMO. He doesn't seem to know what the probabilities mean though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Totally misused the word Moderate in that tweet...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen a TV met use the SPC's percentages correctly (meaning that it's a percentage chance within 25 miles of a point and not just percentage of general coverage/risk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't think I've ever seen a TV met use the SPC's percentages correctly (meaning that it's a percentage chance within 25 miles of a point and not just percentage of general coverage/risk). Berk is the only one I have seen who mentions percentages when he discuss the chances. Tony Pann or Ava Marie do not mention them in their morning reports, or at least from what I have seen. Same with a Tommy T... They will mention "slight" or "moderate" if need be but usually won't go into great detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Popcorn convection in summer is 100% natural -- I don't believe there has been any change there at least... unless there's some period in the past when the jet stream didn't shift north in the summer. No doubt. I use the term for any storms that aren't part of a discrete line, so perhaps I'm not using it correctly. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that I seem to recall that almost all the storms we got when I was growing up were part of lines of storms, rather than more disorganized cells. And it sounds like others feel the same way. Perhaps Ellinwood's post gives a good reason for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 Berk is the only one I have seen who mentions percentages when he discuss the chances. Tony Pann or Ava Marie do not mention them in their morning reports, or at least from what I have seen. Same with a Tommy T... They will mention "slight" or "moderate" if need be but usually won't go into great detail That's probably the best way to get the job done without creating a whole new risk system for the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 So fellas... pardon the laziness this month but due to my lack of computer access this month during camp. Where is the front currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Cool mcs and wave out near west Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 So fellas... pardon the laziness this month but due to my lack of computer access this month during camp. Where is the front currently? Surface front is clearing the coast over by Wallops. Anything today will come from the lagging upper air support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 No doubt. I use the term for any storms that aren't part of a discrete line, so perhaps I'm not using it correctly. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that I seem to recall that almost all the storms we got when I was growing up were part of lines of storms, rather than more disorganized cells. And it sounds like others feel the same way. Perhaps Ellinwood's post gives a good reason for that. I think people have pretty selective memories of past weather so I dunno without having any hard facts. People honestly believe there is a reason for the DC split.. and that Norman OK can't get hit by tornadoes even though it's in one of the hottest climo spots in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 The switch over to a +AMO regime in the late 90s is probably a culprit, and we've also had a -PDO during the last three summers. Those two combined would enhance ridging over the Plains, Midwest and Southeast, keeping the upper-level disturbances and their associated dynamics further north. Fits with the observed storm patterns. For the last 3 years now it seems like PA gets slammed every stinking day. Must be the wettest place on Earth by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Nice looking cell just north of the M/D line..........yet again...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Nice looking cell just north of the M/D line..........yet again...... Would love to see some rainfall totals from up there compared to places around here these past months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Would love to see some rainfall totals from up there compared to places around here these past months. PA: meters BWI-north: feet DC-BWI: inches DC-south: microns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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