Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 FWIW mr. wxrisk is saying he does not see the tornado threat at all lol if you have a big dumb audience it's probably ok to go that way. it's conditional as usual around here. anytime you have troughing in that area with a warm air mass it's worth at least watching for a lee low. hard to say there is no threat looking at guidance and factoring in local knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 image Interestingly enough, I just checked the CIPS severe analogs and it does show a few tornadoes in the same spot in north-central MD. Looks like 4 reports out of a total of 15 events... low odds. EDIT: I went back to the 12z run for the analogs and it had quite a bit more activity in the MD/DC region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Interestingly enough, I just checked the CIPS severe analogs and it does show a few tornadoes in the same spot in north-central MD. Looks like 4 reports out of a total of 15 events... low odds. the 09 event had a similar trough setup but it was seemingly a good bit better based on NARR. little frontrunning vort crossed the area at primetime etc. this setup seems a bit more nebulous... however that same general corridor looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 LWX put severe mention in zones and point-and-click now. Also mentions damaging winds in specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Interestingly enough, I just checked the CIPS severe analogs and it does show a few tornadoes in the same spot in north-central MD. Looks like 4 reports out of a total of 15 events... low odds. EDIT: I went back to the 12z run for the analogs and it had quite a bit more activity in the MD/DC region Ok one of those little red dots is just too close to where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Total Conservative under. There is no definites about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I hate to see the lack of ML lapse rates in any event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 the 1630z day 1 is always slow to arrive when you want to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Still 5 tor in same spot at 1630z... still 15 wind and 15 hail as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 STORM SCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z WRF-ARW-NSSL AND THE NAM-KF CONTROL MEMBER OF THE 09Z SREF DO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES RESULTING IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION DURING THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO EXISTS IF DISCRETE CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE IN THIS FORECAST KINEMATIC REGIME. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM-WRF GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO TORNADO POTENTIAL INDICATED. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL NEAR A FAVORABLE CYCLOGENESIS REGION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A SMALL RELATIVELY HIGHER 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY TORNADO FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING FROM NRN DELMARVA INTO SRN PA/CAPE MAY AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 It's actually very comfortable outside today...to me anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 DCA: 86/65 IAD: 85/64 BWI: 83/69 me: 86.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Getting the chase equipment prepared. Plan on leaving for the Fredrick area and working east during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Some cells going up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Beautiful day and I hope with a happy ending!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Getting the chase equipment prepared. Plan on leaving for the Fredrick area and working east during the day. Not that it's that close to your target area, but useful nonetheless, the cell just north of Gettysburg has super cellular characteristics with some slight rotation on the backside of it. It's encouraging to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Nice to see some tcu having no trouble getting going on vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Not that it's that close to your target area, but useful nonetheless, the cell just north of Gettysburg has super cellular characteristics with some slight rotation on the backside of it. It's encouraging to see. little premature to call it supercell characteristics. bulk shear sucks still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 How long until we start guessing when the mesoscale discussion will come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 How long until we start guessing when the mesoscale discussion will come? Think my before 3 prediction will be right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 How long until we start guessing when the mesoscale discussion will come? I'd guess within 60-90 min or so for places west of us at least. The tornado threat if real probably doesn't ramp up till 6pm or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I'd guess within 60-90 min or so for places west of us at least. The tornado threat if real probably doesn't ramp up till 6pm or later. For some reason I just feel something interesting will happen today. We shall see if that meso low goes crazy later and gives us some sups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I'd guess within 60-90 min or so for places west of us at least. The tornado threat if real probably doesn't ramp up till 6pm or later. In that case I feel like there is a very low chance of tor's because LWX says we need discrete to develop ahead of this prefrontal stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 How about meso in.... now. lol No watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 In that case I feel like there is a very low chance of tor's because LWX says we need discrete to develop ahead of this prefrontal stuff... Could be.. well, yeah, I think the threat is pretty low. Honestly, I don't really like the hi-res model output of late... we might pull off a bubble in the DC area at least. I think whatever happens is iso to sct anyway.. don't anticipate a line of storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Welp - that's a downer of a mesoscale discussion. Next! lol Maybe they should just pull the slight risk with the 20z update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I'm tempted to meh but the focus has been late evening on the models so maybe we just need to wait a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Mehx2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Tornado warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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