mattie g Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I see a ray of sun! I heard that the sun destabilizes the atmosphere and makes derechoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I see a ray of sun! Ray, a drop of golden sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Ray, a drop of golden sun! It will be interesting to see sun obs today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I am out of town so therefore it will storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Appears to be a decent amount of sun to the south and west of the area. I'm still socked in over here on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 It will be interesting to see sun obs today! Currently I am under what I believe are nimbostratus clouds with slight breaks where blue sky is peaking through. No rays of sun at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Out this way we are dealing with the morning round. I can see the future already...fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 13zSPC: 5/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I am out of town so therefore it will storm. Rose Hill has already gotten some nice rains this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 SUN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 SUN! I have about 10% clear spots but sun is not currently aligned with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Actually make that at least 15% some clear spots are hiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Are new Englanders awaiting another landphoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 SUN! Confirmed. Likely EF-10 tornado this pm as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I have about 10% clear spots but sun is not currently aligned with them. I'd say 70/30 clouds/sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Clearing out shouldn't be much of a problem looking upstream. Interesting day coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 O/U on cya tor warnings ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Full sun out here. I don't know if that means anything for the Severemaggedon you guys are hoping for or not. As for me, just hoping for a thunderstorm and more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 O/U on cya tor warnings ... 4 4 different storms with warnings or four warnings total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 4 different storms with warnings or four warnings total Total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I'm relocating to my tornado bunker. I'll check in with ya'll tomorrow. Be safe and whatever you do, please remember to secure your grill covers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Total O/U of four is actually a pretty good line, but I'll take the under. I'm just not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 12z NAM/SREF don't look as good as 0z IMO. Maybe in part due to this morning crap. Though I honestly like my spot without moving. Maybe we'll get a good view of something at least... if we don't just end up with a bunch of multicells. If mobile hard not to want to head just east of the hills and wait for some orographic stuff which might be frontrunners. DC and just east looks about as good as anywhere though by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 LWX Updated Disco: CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...DIFF HTG...AND TRRN BASED CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LTST THINKING IS THIS MAY HPPN IN THE ELY AFTN. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN AS THE MESOLOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST TIME TO SEE SVR WX WILL BE MID AFTN INTO EVNG. SINCE THERE/S LESS CLDCVR THAN PREV THOUGHT...AND A 90 TEMP/70 DEWPT WUD YIELD ALMOST 3000 J/KG SBCAPE /BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z LWX RAOB/...AM BCMG MORE CERTAIN THAT TSTMS WL BE REALIZED...A FEW OF WHICH SHUD BECOME SVR. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISO TORNADO THREAT EXISTS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FCST HODOGRAPHS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND SRN MD INDICATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TORNADOES BY LATE AFTN AS STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS BACK SELY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MESOLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 CAPE's up to 1500-2000+ in some spots already... models are catching up to that and progging widespread values of 2000-3000(+) J/kg across most of MD/DC/NoVA for this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 CAPE's up to 1500-2000+ in some spots already... models are catching up to that and progging widespread values of 2000-3000(+) J/kg across most of MD/DC/NoVA for this afternoon/evening. We gonna die! Sun here!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 We gonna die! Sun here!!!!!! it's gonna get hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 This is impressive - how often do we end up with MORE sun than expected? We'll still find a way to fail, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 This is impressive - how often do we end up with MORE sun than expected? We'll still find a way to fail, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 *snip* FWIW mr. wxrisk is saying he does not see the tornado threat at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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