wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 0z NAM Bufkit files just came in... Just WOW at the directional shear. Amazing Helicity, low LCL's and marginal instability. Combined a EHI of 2.48! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 sref/nam are certainly more bullish at this pt than for the last event. im a little tweaked by the timing though as it seems kinda late. not sure we'll hold discretes that long. ideal case maybe a line with a few ahead? dreaming i suppose. now i just need a tor to pass in a good framing location near a monument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 sref/nam are certainly more bullish at this pt than for the last event. im a little tweaked by the timing though as it seems kinda late. not sure we'll hold discretes that long. ideal case maybe a line with a few ahead? dreaming i suppose. now i just need a tor to pass in a good framing location near a monument. The Wash Monument was already damaged by the earthquake...why not finish it off with a tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I love that hodograph look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 they really like the 0z-3z timeframe.. the ehi band rolls east prior but maximizes around then. 0-1k is pretty high particularly across northern md. maybe a storm will track in about the same place as the one we got fri and drop something. skeptical on that timing.. but bump it forward a bit? im guessing there must be some evening llj influence in there but have not looked that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Expecting a storm or MCS tomorrow. Maybe some hail, not a strong LLJ so I doubt any Tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 00z ARW from LWX for 00z tomorrow evening... this is much more bullish than it was for last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Expecting a storm or MCS tomorrow. Maybe some hail, not a strong LLJ so I doubt any Tornados. Given the models are at least somewhat correct, that is not a environment conducive for an MCS. Way to much backing in the low levels. Hail sure, normal chance. Your right not a strong LLJ but any storm around 0z sure will be corkscrewing with the kind of Hodo the NAM is showing. PS. The plurality of Tornado is Tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Looks like the WRF-NMM4N 00z run from LWX tries for some afternoon stuff (3pm or so) then a QLCS/squall line thing I think around 8pm or so, whch would come into I-95 corridor around 9-10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 FWIW, I see 2/5/15 for the New Day 1 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 FWIW, I see 2/5/15 for the New Day 1 OTLK Guessing thats your forecast since its not out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Guessing thats your forecast since its not out lol Nah, SPC lets me see it ahead of time... duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Hmmm 5/5/15 (5 TOR for N and C MD/DC/extreme NE VA and DE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 0600 SPC disco ..MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE ONGOING CLOUD COVER -- AND PERHAPS EARLY-PERIOD PRECIPITATION -- SHOULD HINDER HEATING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...SOME AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS -- AIDED BY A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...THE NAM -- AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 4 KM WRF AND THE GFS -- SUGGEST A WEAK LOW INVOF THE NRN VA/MD AREA. THIS LOW -- AND THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF IT -- COULD FOCUS AN AREA OF STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MODERATE AT BEST...THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD YIELD A SMALL ZONE OF ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH BROADER THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE A LESSER THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK THREAT ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO THE MD/NRN VA/DE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I had a feeling it would be 5/15/5! Edit: Thought about saying aloud it but SPC usually goes conservative at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I had a feeling it would be 5/15/5! TOR watch? Should be interesting to see how much sun we get tomorrow for destabilization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 TOR watch? Should be interesting to see how much sun we get tomorrow for destabilization For gosh sakes don't jinx this yet Yoda! It's the first time in awhile where I've had the time and money (and weather) to have the chance to pull off anything more than a local chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 wow... FDK at same time is similar, but a lil weaker... MTN same as BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 LWX morning disco AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE THE ERN CONUS TDA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS WILL PROGRESS EWD TDA. DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WEST OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL DRAW WARM...MOIST AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TDA. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM IS MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ERY THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVNGT WEST OF I-95 IN RESPONSE TO MID-LVL PVA AND LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PROMOTED SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG/ FOR ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL. PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE DC AND BALTIMORE METRO DURING THE ERY MRNG HRS BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS MRNG AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NE. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD FROM MID MRNG TO LATE MRNG. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VLY THIS AFTN. FCST MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE SFC TROUGH BY THIS AFTN. THE 00Z NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS A WAVE OF LOPRES DEVELOPS OVER NRN VA AND CENTRAL MD THIS AFTN. BACKED SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A MOIST AIRMASS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE ERY TO MID AFTN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN AS A MESOLOW DEVELOPS. THE BEST TIME TO SEE SVR WX WILL BE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE SINCE ERY-DAY CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DELAY DESTABILIZATION. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS THIS AFTN DUE TO THE MRNG CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FCST HODOGRAPHS SHOW THE SETUP FOR TORNADOES WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND SRN MD AS WINDS BACK TO SELY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 I was a bit surprised to see the 5% tornado risk pop up in the 6z update considering the weak speed shear, but with surface winds out of the SE/ESE curving up to the WSW along with 1500-2000+ CAPE I could see the justification for it. Haven't seen directional shear that good (with severe potential) in our region in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 0.12" I'll take it, of course, but these little events aren't doing much for the year to date dryness. Really need a soaker at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Ef5s for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Fitting that Annapolis is having a disaster preparedness event this morning. The event they are using for their test run....tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Ef5s for me Good luck today. I wish the wind speeds were higher for you guys. You planning on chasing today (sorry if you already talked about your plans earlier in the thread)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Good luck today. I wish the wind speeds were higher for you guys. You planning on chasing today (sorry if you already talked about your plans earlier in the thread)? Naa, gotta work. It might be tempting tho.. Maybe something will come to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Seems like a repeat of Friday with the cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Naa, gotta work. It might be tempting tho.. Maybe something will come to me. F work. lol The pictures of the last storm were stunning and the video Mark posted was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 F work. lol The pictures of the last storm were stunning and the video Mark posted was awesome. Yeah.. I was hoping for these contours last week. Damn weather. If it was next week I'd go as my boss will be in China. Thanks, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I see a ray of sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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