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August 2012 Obs/Disc


Ellinwood

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Another day of cloud OBS on Tuesday.....

From LWX:

IF CLD BRKS OCCUR...MDT INSTBY MAY DVLP IN LOCALIZED AREAS AND

WILL PROMOTE GREATER UPDRAFT INTENSITY. ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT WILL

FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DP LYR SHEAR FOR STORM

ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR FOR ROTATION. AS A

RESULT...MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WOULD BE PSBL FOR ANY

LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO HEAT.

ANY SUCH TSTMS ALSO WOULD BE THE MOST LKLY CANDIDATES TO PRODUCE

SVR WX. ALTHOUGH DMGG WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE MOST LKLY THREATS

FROM ANY VIGOROUS TSTMS...PATTERN HAS SIMILAR FEATURES TO A LOCAL

COMPOSITE PATTERN KNOWN FOR BEING FAVORABLE FOR MESOCYCLONIC

TORNADOES. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LVL INFLOW COULD BE

FAVORABLE FOR DVLPMT OF WEAK TORNADOES...SPCLY LATE TUE AFTN IN

THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

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My grass is semi-brown and haven't mowed it since late June. It would be all brown too if I didn't water it occasionally. As I have said before, thunderstorms hate me.

It's definitely luck of the draw. Had we not gotten lucky last Thursday, we'd be brown by now as we got nothing Friday or Saturday. We've gotten more luck this year than in the past in that we haven't gone very long between rains over here. They usually haven't been more than a quarter to half inch, but if you get them every 6 or 7 days, it can really help during July and August.

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It's definitely luck of the draw. Had we not gotten lucky last Thursday, we'd be brown by now as we got nothing Friday or Saturday. We've gotten more luck this year than in the past in that we haven't gone very long between rains over here. They usually haven't been more than a quarter to half inch, but if you get them every 6 or 7 days, it can really help during July and August.

Yeah, it's been real hit or miss. I've had over 8 inches since the beginning of July, while others are closer to 1-2 inches.

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Racked up another 90 at DCA. While drier, it is still hot.

Looks like Friday is our best chance at tying the 95+ record. After that, we get a cool-down and climo starts to really do its job.

I think we'll get our 95+ on Friday... latest GFS+Euro Ops have a small +20C contour in northern/central VA... that's close enough for DCA to snag a 95 with a westerly wind (or at least it has been this year).

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