smokeybandit Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Only problem with much needed rain coming from the southwest...it kills DirecTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 I wish we could bottle today's weather. Gorgeous out this way today. Nice breeze, partly cloudy, reasonable humidity, and high temp 84 / 60. Nice evening outside on the front porch watching a great sunset. Already down to 71 / 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 73 for a high today even with the sun out most of the day. When it was cloudy it felt chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Nice quick hitter there. Quarter of an inch in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Pretty sure that's the front on radar west of dc with showers forming behind it. Dews are coming down west of that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Cells popping now on loudoun/FFX border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 It's actually kinda clear and cool here. I can see the shower just west nicely in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 What a nightmare of a drive home from Jersey this evening. Drove over the Delaware Memorial Bridge as that big cell was passing through Chester County, PA. Nice light show. Then got to Baltimore in time for a deluge. And by the time we got to the Beltway and 270, we got stuck in the Beltway construction. Nearly a dead stop for miles. Disaster. It seems wet here, so I guess we got in on the very southern end of those storms. Definitely glad for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Temps around 70, DPs in the upper 50s. Fall can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Day 3 "see text" from SPC it seems. LWX was talking both discrete and linear modes. SPC says ultimately slight risk will probably be needed. Cloud cover concerns for now (as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 54 this morning, not a cloud in the sky. Kind of brisk drinking my coffee on the deck. The week ahead looks to stay around 80 in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 68 out and very clear blue sunny skies. I can see Sugarloaf which had been in a haze this past week. Hoping to take advantage of a great day outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Today is amazing. Too bad summer can't be like this here. I hope we are done with the upper 90s - but I'm sure summer will try to do us in once or twice more. The sky has that nice blue color of fall today. September here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Day 3 "see text" from SPC it seems. LWX was talking both discrete and linear modes. SPC says ultimately slight risk will probably be needed. Cloud cover concerns for now (as usual). yeah another little trough coming thru the southern lakes. it looked better yesterday than today imo but we'll see. the nam still isnt entirely on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Windchill down to 82 bonechilling degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Day 3 see text, some concerns with cloud cover, but a slight risk seems likely on Day 2 seems like some supercells with hail and maybe tornadoes are possible east of the surface low across most of the Mid Altantic, interesting day, and Thursday and Friday seems a bit interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Day 3 see text, some concerns with cloud cover, but a slight risk seems likely on Day 2 seems like some supercells with hail and maybe tornadoes are possible east of the surface low across most of the Mid Altantic, interesting day, and Thursday and Friday seems a bit interesting You really think tornadoes? Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 You really think tornadoes? Hmmmm there appears to be enough spin in the atmosphere to support a few tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 You really think tornadoes? Hmmmm That guy thinks every event will bring supercells and tornadoes. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 That guy thinks every event will bring supercells and tornadoes. Lol HAHA, not really, i think there could be a few supercells, and maybe a tornado or two, well read the SPC day 3, perhaps supercells, pointing out the facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 HAHA, not really, i think there could be a few supercells, and maybe a tornado or two, well read the SPC day 3, perhaps supercells, pointing out the facts I see what you are saying but just remember supercells do not mean tornadoes. A storm can be a supercell without tornadoes. I don't think they specifically mention tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 there appears to be enough spin in the atmosphere to support a few tornadoes It takes more than "spin in the atmosphere" to support tornadoes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 there appears to be enough spin in the atmosphere to support a few tornadoes You calling mod risk again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 Tuesday's setup appears to be weaker than Friday in some areas, most importantly with regards to the speed shear and upper-level dynamics. The cold front is going to lag behind the convection, leaving the mountains and the lee trough as the only lifting mechanisms in the area. Morning convection will also be an issue, but maybe not as much as it was last Friday. The mid-level lapse rates appear to be better than what we saw on Friday, so it does have something going for it in addition to the nice veering wind profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Slight risk possible. ...EASTERN CONUS... BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN STATES...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. EXPECTATIONS OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT/ ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES PROVIDES CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES POTENTIALLY INCLUDING MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY ASIDE...PRIMARY DAY 3 UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE DEGREE/SPATIAL PEAK OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION. PENDING SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE...PRELIMINARY THINKING IS THAT PORTIONS OF PA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN NY AND THE ADJACENT DELMARVA/NORTHEAST SEABOARD COULD ULTIMATELY WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK...AND THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I feel like we've had the same news a few times since this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I feel like we've had the same news a few times since this morning Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 CIPS Warm Season Analog system spits out July 31, 2009 as a possible fit among a few other severe events as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 NAM and GFS Hodos are nice, Cape us there. We shall see. I think it will be better than Friday and that is not hard since Friday sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Day 2 from SPC... Well.... ..NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN STATES...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO DIURNALLY INTENSIFY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR A DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE DELMARVA VICINITY INTO EASTERN PA/SOUTHEAST NY VICINITIES. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUD COVER/POSSIBLE EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION MAY HINDER THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH AT LEAST POCKETS OF MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG SEEMS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF PA TO THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEATING IS ANTICIPATED. EXPECTATIONS OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT/ WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH ANY SUCH SUPERCELL/POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL FOCUSED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/NEAR THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS/SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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