HM Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 closed lows are a pain.. spc seemed overly boring tho. segments/batches/low topped sups all seem possible with the airmass/shear. I like the profiles across the Mid Atlantic Friday but the wind speeds are poor on the models right now. The curse of the disjointed upper low! If we can get the winds to increase aloft, I think isolated tornadoes would become a bigger threat for sure. I agree with you that segments with low topped supercells can easily form with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onel0126 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It might not rain much but if it does it could be a lot. Sounds like a Dos XXs beer commercial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It is awesome that we can go, "hey DCA's TDWR is down, I guess I'll have to go check out that shower on one of the 4 other radars" Seems it's still down. Anyone know when it's supposed to be back up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Seems it's still down. Anyone know when it's supposed to be back up? Evidently whoever is in charge is reading this thread. Just popped back up 20 minutes ago. Little showers around, including at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Evidently whoever is in charge is reading this thread. Just popped back up 20 minutes ago. Little showers around, including at my house Ask ask ye shall receive! Cell out near Manassas will hopefully stay together and give us a little wetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Evidently whoever is in charge is reading this thread. Just popped back up 20 minutes ago. Little showers around, including at my house rain and thunder W of the beltway/Rt 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 There is a heavy downpour right now in Herndon. There is no thunder or lightning, just heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 pouring in merrifield now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 For the past 6 weeks it seems like every storm dries up and fires somewhere else at it approaches my hood. I can drive a few miles in either direction and be in much better shape. I feel like Matti g, missing on everything. Dry still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 For the past 6 weeks it seems like every storm dries up and fires somewhere else at it approaches my hood. I can drive a few miles in either direction and be in much better shape. I feel like Matti g, missing on everything. Dry still! That's why they call them "scattered" showers. Sooner or later, the law of averages will catch up with you and reverse the trend. I've watched a few good'uns this summer just barely miss MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Burke split. Again. Edit: Confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Burke split. Again. Edit: Confirmation. It will backbuild and pivot and derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It will backbuild and pivot and derecho Will there be a gRaViTy WaVe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 This is just one big tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I see we broke DCAs TDWR again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I see we broke DCAs TDWR again. I was just about to mention it. Supposedly only out until 00Z. There's a cell over Fairfax City - within touching distance. So close, yet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I see we broke DCAs TDWR again. Stop breaking it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Big shift in day 2 SPC outlook lol - no slight for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I recieved .44 with the downpour between 12:30 and 1:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Big shift in day 2 SPC outlook lol - no slight for us. Tomorrow is sketchy.. Might be a svr warn or two but nothing widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 SPC SREF maps look pretty decent for Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Kmlwx, they sure do look decent!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 LWX hitting Friday FRIDAY...SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE STORMS. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL I-95 AND WEST...WITH A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHING...SHEAR LOOKS TO ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. LINES/LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. BEST TIMING FOR BALT-WASH CORRIDOR CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY EVENING. THEREFORE CATEGORICAL POPS WERE HELD ONTO EAST OF I-95 AFTER 00Z FRIDAY FOR THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAT PREVIOUS...SO THE TIMING IS NOT TOO CONFIDENT AS OF THIS TIME. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY THREE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN THREAT. CONSIDERING LOW SHEAR AND GULF MOISTURE PLUME FLASH FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...FOLLOWED BY HAIL IN THE TALL/SKINNY CAPE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS MUCH TOO LOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT. MAX TEMPS MID 80S WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND THE PRECIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 91 at dca -- woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 the low level shear is iffy but i dunno if i agree with them throwing it totally under the bus. we'll see when they issue a tornado warning or two on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 the low level shear is iffy but i dunno if i agree with them throwing it totally under the bus. we'll see when they issue a tornado warning or two on friday. Did seem odd to dismiss it like that... 18z NAM isn't too shabby for Friday afternoon in the DC area: Mid-level shear certainly isn't impressive, but it's not impossible for tornadoes in this kind of environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Probably wishful thinking but it looks like something is trying to flare up over NW-ern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 CTP: A SVR WEATHER THREAT SHOULD ALSO UNFOLD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR. SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF CWA EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DMGG WIND THREAT AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS IN CLOUD-BREAKS AND CONTRIBUTES TO POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANOTHER SCENARIO TO CONSIDER IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW E OF THE APPLCHNS...WHICH MAY ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The new 00z NAM and 21z SREF are painting a pretty decent picture FRI PM for a good chunk of PA. The SIG TOR probs came up on the SREF and the NAM is now developing an appreciable LLJ (30-35kts) in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The new 00z NAM and 21z SREF are painting a pretty decent picture FRI PM for a good chunk of PA. The SIG TOR probs came up on the SREF and the NAM is now developing an appreciable LLJ (30-35kts) in PA. yeah i was just kinda drooling at that. i think the primary risk zone is perhaps n md into c pa for now. im not confident the area highlighted by sref is not too far north, particularly if there is a secondary lee low of some sort which does seem possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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