The NEW summer 2012 BANTER thread.

[Analog96]

Sure but my point is is that years ago it was pretty much the same up until about exit 50, even almost 60 years ago. A lot of the south shore communities were already built and the north shore is still very similar to what it was back then. In other words no big changes have happened to a large part of the island, at least when compared to 50 years ago. Before that is a different story.

But when you're talking about climate, you have to talk about next to the area as well. Roosevelt Field Mall, for example, is right on the edge of "northern" Nassau. Things like that weren't there 50 years ago. Old Country Road, which is currently a long strip mall, plus 2 real malls, plus 1 less than a block north of there, was basically a country road 50 years ago.

[Sundog]

The biggest changes have happened in the middle part of Suffolk, where new communities have popped up and existin town have grown. Otherwise anything past exit, say, 65-67 is still a lot of farmland or small towns and anything before exit 50 is the way it was 50 years ago.

[Diego]

Which is small to begin with...

453 square miles?

[Sundog]

But when you're talking about climate, you have to talk about next to the area as well. Roosevelt Field Mall, for example, is right on the edge of "northern" Nassau. Things like that weren't there 50 years ago. Old Country Road, which is currently a long strip mall, plus 2 real malls, plus 1 less than a block north of there, was basically a country road 50 years ago.

Like I said its not exactly the same. There were farms in Queens up until the 1960s and a couple small ones continued even after that. That doesn't mean that in 1960 Queens looked dramatically different. It looks almost the same as now.

[Diego]

I don't think I ever argued temps have been static; but that's besides the point. The problem with the AGW advocate is that he is, in truth, a living paradox. Although he puts forth a wonderfully progressive worldview...he is, at heart, a closet reactionary...absolutely terrified at the prospect of the slightest change in his environment. This inherent contradiction is based on the false notion that he himself is the very center of the universe and that absolutely nothing can take place without his consent. It is a notion rooted in arrogance because it fails to grant proper deference and respect to things that are much more powerful than him, i.e. Nature, which will likewise be here long after he is gone...

No doubt, politics plays a big role, i.e. Al ..ore. But the evidence is still there.

[nzucker]

Rural stations have been shown to be warming at a similar rate to urban ones...here is one study from China:

[Diego]

But when you're talking about climate, you have to talk about next to the area as well. Roosevelt Field Mall, for example, is right on the edge of "northern" Nassau. Things like that weren't there 50 years ago. Old Country Road, which is currently a long strip mall, plus 2 real malls, plus 1 less than a block north of there, was basically a country road 50 years ago.

Excerpt from Wiki.

As an airfield, the land served as the take-off site of many famous aviators such as Amelia Earhart and Wiley Post. Charles Lindbergh's solo translatlantic flight took off from Roosevelt Field in 1927. The field was originally named Curtiss Field and was renamed in honor of Theodore Roosevelt's son Quentin, who died in World War I. After the airfield was closed in 1951, the site was developed by New York's William Zeckendorf and designed by I.M. Pei.

Ground was broken on the $35 million project in April 1955. The center opened with a single level and was an open-air center. It included F.W. Woolworth 5 & 10 store, Walgreen Drug, Food Fair supermarket, Buster Brown Shoes, a public auditorium, movie theater, and an outdoor ice rink. The original anchor of the mall was a 2-level 343,000 ft² (31,900 m²) Macy's which opened on August 22, 1956.

In 1962, a 250,000 ft² (2,320 m²) Gimbels store opened (today, the structure houses Dick's Sporting Goods and Bloomingdale's Furniture). With the addition, the complex held over 1,000,000 ft² (92,900 m²). A major extension was completed in 1964. Macy's had a 85,000 ft² (7,900 m²) third level added. In 1968, The Century Roosevelt Cinema began operation. At that time, the mall was enclosed.

In 1972, a second major expansion was completed which added a 3-level, 260,000 ft² (24,200 m²) J.C. Penney,which was later completely renovated in 2010, and a 2-level 31,400 ft² (2,900 m²) Alexander's. La Petite Mall, a Tudor-style expansion was built in 1974 that architecturally reinforced the novelty of shopping indoors.

An upper level of stores and food court was established in 1993 after a major renovation which started in 1991. When Alexander's went bankrupt in 1992, Abraham & Straus gutted the building and extensively renovated it, opening in 1992. The Abraham & Straus location at Roosevelt Field only lasted until 1995, when the chain became defunct. The store was slightly renovated, and re-opened as a Bloomingdale's in 1998. The Bloomingdale's store at Roosevelt Field had a major renovation, which was finished by the summer of 2009. The Gimbels anchor was a Stern's between 1987 and 2001.

After Stern's closed, the spot was taken over by Galyan's, which opened in 2003 (later bought out by Dick's Sporting Goods in 2004). Dick's Sporting Goods occupied the eastern section and Bloomingdale's Furniture Gallery, which opened in 2004 and occupies the western half. A new, 3-story Nordstrom and a 2-story wing leading to the new Nordstrom opened in August 1997. Simon Property Group took ownership of the mall when they had acquired Corporate Property Investors in 1998.

In March 2012, it was announced that a new 100,000-square-foot building anchored by luxury department store Neiman Marcus will be added to Roosevelt Field. Estimated to be completed in 2015, this expansion will create room for even more shops leading up to the luxury department store, and will also be accompanied by a new parking structure, according to the mall's owner and developer, Simon Property Group. “Neiman Marcus will be an impressive complement to our existing roster of more than 270 retailers and will further enhance our ability to provide shoppers with the highest quality and selection of goods that they have come to expect and enjoy at Roosevelt Field," David Simon, chairman and chief executive of Simon Property Group, said in a statement.

This expansion will also feature construction of a new food pavilion with enhanced dining options and outdoor seating that will replace the existing food court. New restaurants including The Capital Grille and Havana Central will be built around the mall's property. Skinny Pizza and Seasons 52 have since opened

The expansion will be privately funded and will not involve any taxpayer money, according to Richard Sokolov, president and chief operating officer of Simon Property Group.

[Sundog]

I don't think I ever argued temps have been static; but that's besides the point. The problem with the AGW advocate is that he is, in truth, a living paradox. Although he puts forth a wonderfully progressive worldview...he is, at heart, a closet reactionary...absolutely terrified at the prospect of the slightest change in his environment. This inherent contradiction is based on the false notion that he himself is the very center of the universe and that absolutely nothing can take place without his consent. It is a notion rooted in arrogance because it fails to grant proper deference and respect to things that are much more powerful than him, i.e. Nature, which will likewise be here long after he is gone...

What I think:

-AGW is the biggest contributor to our warming planet. That doesn't mean there aren't other cyclical factors.

-We absolutely CAN screw with nature. I wish it was otherwise. Deforestation, garbage, an over 50% rise in CO2 levels planet wide, the destruction of the ozone layer (and the subsequent leveling off of said destruction, again more evidence that we have profound effects on nature) are just a few examples.

- Nature will rebound eventually as it always does but removing all human activities for that recovery to begin is pretty unlikely if you ask me.

- I have no problem with change. It's inevitable. Usually the people that have a problem with change are the people denying that humans can possibly have an impact on the world's climate.

- I love snow like you wouldn't believe. That doesn't mean I'm going to sit here and pretend that our location's ability to receive snowfall isn't decreasing during the long term. Key words: long term.

[Sickman]

If only there were some place on this board to discuss climate change...

[Analog96]

Excerpt from Wiki.

As an airfield, the land served as the take-off site of many famous aviators such as Amelia Earhart and Wiley Post. Charles Lindbergh's solo translatlantic flight took off from Roosevelt Field in 1927. The field was originally named Curtiss Field and was renamed in honor of Theodore Roosevelt's son Quentin, who died in World War I. After the airfield was closed in 1951, the site was developed by New York's William Zeckendorf and designed by I.M. Pei.

Ground was broken on the $35 million project in April 1955. The center opened with a single level and was an open-air center. It included F.W. Woolworth 5 & 10 store, Walgreen Drug, Food Fair supermarket, Buster Brown Shoes, a public auditorium, movie theater, and an outdoor ice rink. The original anchor of the mall was a 2-level 343,000 ft² (31,900 m²) Macy's which opened on August 22, 1956.

In 1962, a 250,000 ft² (2,320 m²) Gimbels store opened (today, the structure houses Dick's Sporting Goods and Bloomingdale's Furniture). With the addition, the complex held over 1,000,000 ft² (92,900 m²). A major extension was completed in 1964. Macy's had a 85,000 ft² (7,900 m²) third level added. In 1968, The Century Roosevelt Cinema began operation. At that time, the mall was enclosed.

In 1972, a second major expansion was completed which added a 3-level, 260,000 ft² (24,200 m²) J.C. Penney,which was later completely renovated in 2010, and a 2-level 31,400 ft² (2,900 m²) Alexander's. La Petite Mall, a Tudor-style expansion was built in 1974 that architecturally reinforced the novelty of shopping indoors.

An upper level of stores and food court was established in 1993 after a major renovation which started in 1991. When Alexander's went bankrupt in 1992, Abraham & Straus gutted the building and extensively renovated it, opening in 1992. The Abraham & Straus location at Roosevelt Field only lasted until 1995, when the chain became defunct. The store was slightly renovated, and re-opened as a Bloomingdale's in 1998. The Bloomingdale's store at Roosevelt Field had a major renovation, which was finished by the summer of 2009. The Gimbels anchor was a Stern's between 1987 and 2001.

After Stern's closed, the spot was taken over by Galyan's, which opened in 2003 (later bought out by Dick's Sporting Goods in 2004). Dick's Sporting Goods occupied the eastern section and Bloomingdale's Furniture Gallery, which opened in 2004 and occupies the western half. A new, 3-story Nordstrom and a 2-story wing leading to the new Nordstrom opened in August 1997. Simon Property Group took ownership of the mall when they had acquired Corporate Property Investors in 1998.

In March 2012, it was announced that a new 100,000-square-foot building anchored by luxury department store Neiman Marcus will be added to Roosevelt Field. Estimated to be completed in 2015, this expansion will create room for even more shops leading up to the luxury department store, and will also be accompanied by a new parking structure, according to the mall's owner and developer, Simon Property Group. “Neiman Marcus will be an impressive complement to our existing roster of more than 270 retailers and will further enhance our ability to provide shoppers with the highest quality and selection of goods that they have come to expect and enjoy at Roosevelt Field," David Simon, chairman and chief executive of Simon Property Group, said in a statement.

This expansion will also feature construction of a new food pavilion with enhanced dining options and outdoor seating that will replace the existing food court. New restaurants including The Capital Grille and Havana Central will be built around the mall's property. Skinny Pizza and Seasons 52 have since opened

The expansion will be privately funded and will not involve any taxpayer money, according to Richard Sokolov, president and chief operating officer of Simon Property Group.

You want to compare the heat emitted from the type of propeller plabes they had at Roosevelt Field to jet airplanes?

[Sundog]

If only there were some place on this board to discuss climate change...

The beauty of discussing it in here is we can go off on tangents or steer the combo somewhere completely unrelated and there's no problem at all

[Sundog]

You want to compare the heat emitted from the type of propeller plabes they had at Roosevelt Field to jet airplanes?

You tell me Nassau is small and now you're worried about one mall and it's effects on climate?

[Analog96]

You tell me Nassau is small and now you're worried about one mall and it's effects on climate?

you are having a lot of problems reading tonight... I was referring to the whole area between Mineola and the Suffolk line along Old Country Road, and its effects on LOCAL climate. Does that make it more clear for you?

[Guest Pamela]

- I love snow like you wouldn't believe. That doesn't mean I'm going to sit here and pretend that our location's ability to receive snowfall isn't decreasing during the long term. Key words: long term.

There is an old saying... "He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass."...Laurence Tribe, I think...though he may have borrowed it...the future is very uncertain, IMO...things people positively guaranteed are now laughed at years after the fact...time will ultimately tell...but I think it is a good idea to avoid speaking of the future with absolute certainty...because, truth be told...no one can be absolutely sure.

[Analog96]

There is an old saying... "He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass."...Laurence Tribe, I think...though he may have borrowed it...the future is very uncertain, IMO...things people positively guaranteed are now laughed at years after the fact...time will ultimately tell...but I think it is a good idea to avoid speaking of the future with absolute certainty...because, truth be told...no one can be absolutely sure.

If people's predictions from 50 years ago came true, we'd most likely have the moon colonized and be driving around flying cars. Also Russia would have knocked down the World Trade Center and not Al Qaeda.

[Sickman]

The beauty of discussing it in here is we can go off on tangents or steer the combo somewhere completely unrelated and there's no problem at all

As a stand-alone tangent, fine... I just don't want to wake up tomorrow and see 500 more posts on the same AGW tangent.

[Guest Pamela]

you are having a lot of problems reading tonight... I was referring to the whole area between Mineola and the Suffolk line along Old Country Road, and its effects on LOCAL climate. Does that make it more clear for you?

Having lived in each (Nassau and Suffolk) over the last 41 years...I probably am more familiar with the area than any of the three of you...but I don't want to get involved in this hard-to-define argument...

[Sundog]

Years ago, anwywhere east of the Nassau/Suffolk line (with the exception of maybe Islip, Brentwood, and Riverhead), was basically all farmland. Now, it's basically urban all the way out on the LIE to Riverhead. You have to get East of there to really get into farmland.

This is the post I was originally answering. With the exception of central Suffolk, a lot of Long Island doesn't look all that different from 50 years ago. Aerial shots back this up.

[Analog96]

This is the post I was originally answering. With the exception of central Suffolk, a lot of Long Island doesn't look all that different from 50 years ago. Aerial shots back this up.

neither one of us is old enough to say that for certainty, aerial shots have limited capabilities for sure, but from talking to people who are old enough, they say it does "look" different.

[Guest Pamela]

Having lived in each (Nassau and Suffolk) over the last 41 years...I probably am more familiar with the area than any of the three of you...but I don't want to get involved in this hard-to-define argument...

Ah, what the heck...there is a long term co-op in Mineola...it is inside the NYC heat island...at least per review of the data...from 1980 - 1990...a station called Westbury was set up 4 or so miles east of Mineola...the Westbury data showed it was outside the heat island...by a lot.

Here is some crap I wrote over at Eastern on Nassau weather and that station...

I write quite a bit about Long Island weather and climate because I've lived on the Island for nearly 39 years, having moved here in October 1971. I resided in Plainview, which is in east central Nassau County from 1971-1994 and in Port Jefferson, which is on the North Shore of central Suffolk County from 1994 to the present.

I only took an interest in weather as recently as December 12, 1982. I happened on TWC that Sunday morning for the first time and saw John Hope giving an energetic presentation on how an in progress snowstorm "was hugging the coast" a little more than expected. Picked up about 5 to 6 inches of snow that December day on Long Island and have been a weather fan ever since. That storm was best known as the cause of the infamous "Snowplow" game up at Foxboro when a Patriots employee cleared the field for the New England kicker to boot home the winning field goal against the Dolphins. Shula fumed.

Anyway, having observed the weather in Plainview from that day in 1982 until I moved out east in December 1994, I became quite accustomed to the ups and downs any snow fan in the NYC / Long Island area experiences. In retrospect, the disappointments outweighed the exhilirating moments more often that not during those winters, as snowfall was pretty unimpressive in this area during that span. But something that disappointed me even more was that up until today, I had been unable to access the climatological data for what was without question the most reliable and representative cooperative weather station in Nassau County during the 1980's. The name of the station was Westbury, and though it was in operation for only 10.5 years (1/1/1980 - 6/30/1990), it provided a virtually gap free picture of the weather in Nassau County during those years. Besides being gap free, it is located very close to the geographical center of the county, about half way between North and South Shores and roughly midway between the Queens and Suffolk lines. Even better, a quick inspection of the temperature data shows that it was far enough east to be outside the NYC heat island, consistently recording temperatures well below those in NYC. Lastly, the station was only about 3 miles WSW of where I lived in Plainview, so I now have a definitive climate record of the area where my interest in the subject was sparked and I spent so many years. Westbury's elevation was 90 feet and mine in Plainview was 160 feet, so there was not much of an altitude difference. As I mentioned at another time, many of my old records I kept in Plainview have been either lost or discarded. Locating the Westbury data was better than finding all my old Plainview paperwork; their climate record was far more complete than mine ever was. So without further ado, here are some of the interesting climate stats from far and away Nassau County's most reliable and representative station during the 1980's:

Westbury Annual Snowfall:

1980-81: 22.7"

1981-82: 27.5"

1982-83: 31.4"

1983-84: 30.4"

1984-85: 28.8"

1985-86: 16.5"

1986-87: 33.4"

1987-88: 24.4"

1988-89: 15.8"

1989-90: 23.5"

Mean: 25.44"

Westbury Notable Snowstorms:

1/7/81: 6.9"

3/5/81: 10.4"

1/14/82: 8.1"

4/6/82: 8.8"

12/12/82: 5.7"

2/12/83: 16.5"

1/11/84: 4.7"

1/18/84: 5.7"

3/9/84: 7.0"

12/27/84: 6.8"

1/17/85: 5.5"

2/6/85: 4.9"

2/8/86: 4.0"

2/11/86: 4.1"

1/23/87: 8.2"

1/26/87: 4.6"

2/23/87: 4.8"

1/4/88: 7.1"

1/9/88: 6.8"

12/13/88: 3.7"

1/6/89: 6.2"

11/23/89: 7.2"

2/25/90: 4.4"

Mean Annual Snowfall (1980-81 - 1989-90)

Westbury: 25.44"

Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX: 25.41"

LaGuardia Airport: 21.66"

John F Kennedy Airport: 20.28"

Central Park: 19.74"

Since I've moved out to Port Jeferson, I've often commented on how snowy the 2001 - 2010 period had been at the nearby Brookhaven Lab / Upton OKX. But the above record clearly shows that during the 1980's Westbury and Upton OKX, were in a virtual dead heat for mean annual snowfall.

November and April Snow Events At Westbury:

11/17/80: 0.2"

4/6/82: 8.8"

4/19/83: 1.4"

11/19/86: 1.7"

11/11/87: 1.1"

11/23/89: 7.2"

4/7/90: 2.6"

It also got quite cold in Westbury during the 1980's. On 10 separate days the mercury dipped to zero Farenheit or below:

12/25/80: -1

1/9/81: 0

1/12/81: -1

1/17/82: -5

1/18/82: -7

1/21/84: -3

1/22/84: -5

1/21/85: -4

1/11/88: 0

1/15/88: -1

I'm quite happy I was finally able to obtain access to this climatological data. It paints an extremely clear picture of Nassau County weather during the 1980's. I only regret that observations ceased on 6/30/1990. It would have been interesting to see what kind of data would have been recorded in Westbury during the tumultuous last 20 years.

[Sundog]

neither one of us is old enough to say that for certainty, aerial shots have limited capabilities for sure, but from talking to people who are old enough, they say it does "look" different.

Dude historicaerials.com has the whole area with zooming ability, street overlay, and you can even pick from a set of years that are available for whatever location you're looking at. I suggest you check it out if you think aerials have limited capability.

Btw i bet those people will probably also tell you they used to get tons more snow than we do today, meanwhile we know what the truth is. Just like Bloomberg said after the Boxing Day blizzard that NYC doesn't get big snow storms anymore like they did many years ago, meanwhile the last ten years have been extraordinary. People remember whatever they want to remember.

[Guest Pamela]

Dude historicaerials.com has the whole area with zooming ability, street overlay, and you can even pick from a set of years that are available for whatever location you're looking at. I suggest you check it out if you think aerials have limited capability.

Btw i bet those people will probably also tell you they used to get tons more snow than we do today, meanwhile we know what the truth is. Just like Bloomberg said after the Boxing Day blizzard that NYC doesn't get big snow storms anymore like they did many years ago, meanwhile the last ten years have been extraordinary. People remember whatever they want to remember.

2000-2010 was the snowiest decade out here since record keeping began.

[Analog96]

Dude historicaerials.com has the whole area with zooming ability, street overlay, and you can even pick from a set of years that are available for whatever location you're looking at. I suggest you check it out if you think aerials have limited capability.

Btw i bet those people will probably also tell you they used to get tons more snow than we do today, meanwhile we know what the truth is. Just like Bloomberg said after the Boxing Day blizzard that NYC doesn't get big snow storms anymore like they did many years ago, meanwhile the last ten years have been extraordinary. People remember whatever they want to remember.

That snow argument is just stupid, BUT in a conversation with my father, I finally began to realize why old people think like that. He told me that 50 years ago in Elizabeth, the side streets never got plowed. It could take a week before you could really get through. Now, although the street does get more narrow, they're plowing at least every hour, and in a day or two, the street is relatively passable. So it's not really the amount of snow, but perhaps, due to more money in snow removal budgets and better plowing/salting, a foot of snow is less impact than it was 50 years ago.

[CooL]

- I love snow like you wouldn't believe. That doesn't mean I'm going to sit here and pretend that our location's ability to receive snowfall isn't decreasing during the long term. Key words: long term.

We'll all be long dead by the time NYC averages 10" or less of snow per year. What does it matter lol

[Momza]

There is an old saying... "He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass."...Laurence Tribe, I think...though he may have borrowed it...the future is very uncertain, IMO...things people positively guaranteed are now laughed at years after the fact...time will ultimately tell...but I think it is a good idea to avoid speaking of the future with absolute certainty...because, truth be told...no one can be absolutely sure.

Do not underestimate the power of The Crystal Ball"........

[MJO812]

NAO dropping

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

[Sundog]

NAO dropping

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

I'd rather see it through the roof right now

[TheTrials]

I'd rather see it through the roof right now

NAO dropping

http://www.cpc.ncep....k/pna/nao.shtml

Yeah, because when it goes positive in October and stays positive through next February, people will regret the consecutive months of -NAO we have had since the end winter.

[ag3]

I'd rather see it through the roof right now

Agree. We've had blocking and a -nao for the whole summer and the next month at least. Waste.

[BxEngine]

In the shade, with this breeze....you can almost feel autumn coming.