Marion_NC_WX Posted August 5, 2012 Author Share Posted August 5, 2012 Looking at the 12z model suite, I'm starting to believe that areas of Alabama, Georgia and the Western half of the Carolinas are going to have a chance to rack up on rainfall totals through all of this week. There is a strong 850 vort max and surface circulation currently moving west in the Southern third of Georgia...that low will eventually stall over South Alabama for a couple days and then come northward generally near or along the I-85 cooridor eventually reaching North Georgia by Day 3-4. Look at the similarities between the GFS and European in that timeframe... Day 3 (Euro) GFS Day 4... The 5-Day QPF is a very good depiction of the track of our upper low during the upcoming work week and which areas may stand to benefit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 After a 9" on-the-nose rainfall total in July, August has begun with a bang. 3.09" has fallen already this month, 2.19" of which fell during Friday's deluge. Of that, a little less than 2" fell in an hour, causing major flash flooding across town. Several houses flooded, as did many downtown Erwin businesses. Many yards became rivers and lakes, and cars stalled in deep water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Band moving north, south of me, a line moving south, north of me. Looks like somewhere in Ga. these lines are going to meet with a splash! Got to love the potential tropical spice to things this time of year. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Band moving north, south of me, a line moving south, north of me. Looks like somewhere in Ga. these lines are going to meet with a splash! Got to love the potential tropical spice to things this time of year. T I don't know, from the look of the radar, it looks like everything is pretty much evaporating as usual as it nears north Georgia. Hopefully, a pop up storm can get me this evening, otherwise, another "increased chance of precip day" with nothing but sunny skies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Getting plastered. Over 2 inches and well on my way to 3+. The Shutout Ive endured the past month is finally over for MBY and corner of the world. I'll go out and get an accurate read on the rain gauge when it quits. oppurtunities looking good this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Looks like its about to go crazy from this band. Really windy and dark. Edit: Getting blasted by wind and rain here. I like Ex91l. Power just cut off for a while now back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Seeing these pics of all the rainfall just kills me. In the 10 years I have lived in Kernersville it has never been this dry. I mowed today for the first time in 4 weeks and had to wear a dust mask (first time ever). Mulch is 1" off the foundation, ground has 1/2" cracks, stone retaining walls are free standing since the dirt has receeded from the wall, grass is gone ( I mean down to the dirt gone) in many places. Any rain that falls in a storm will simply be runoff. I need a wet month just to jump start any growth at all before the fall. God Bless those folks in the midwest who are struggling to feed the rest of us. I feel bad complaining about my grass and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Getting plastered. Over 2 inches and well on my way to 3+. The Shutout Ive endured the past month is finally over for MBY and corner of the world. I'll go out and get an accurate read on the rain gauge when it quits. oppurtunities looking good this week. Missed it all here. I just finished mowing and I could see the storm that nailed you to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Flash flood warning for Haywood and Madison Counties. Very heavy rain currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 12z GFS paints a very reasonable August weather pattern for the southeast. Could fall come early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 12z GFS paints a very reasonable August weather pattern for the southeast. Could fall come early? That would be nice. Currently very heavy rainfall with offer an inch so far. Looks like more rain coming from TN. Temps very nice. Currently 69 degrees with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Whats up all? Down on vacation at Lake Keowee for the week in Seneca, SC. Hoping for some storms!! what's up friend? You are in my neck of the woods!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Missed it all here. I just finished mowing and I could see the storm that nailed you to the south. Ended up with 2.3. Just looked at the storm total radar Raleigh CWA and very isolated event. My fescue has been toasted and I haven't had to mow in 3 weeks, but yesterday I had to get up leaves (and it wasn't just a few). Been a rough 6-7 weeks here. Hopefully everyone else who's been missing out can get hit over the next few days. Sept/Oct can't get here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ended up with 2.3. Just looked at the storm total radar Raleigh CWA and very isolated event. My fescue has been toasted and I haven't had to mow in 3 weeks, but yesterday I had to get up leaves (and it wasn't just a few). Been a rough 6-7 weeks here. Hopefully everyone else who's been missing out can get hit over the next few days. Sept/Oct can't get here fast enough. I agree with the bolded I'm sitting here watching preseason football dreaming of cooler temps, color in the trees and cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 what's up friend? You are in my neck of the woods!! Oh yeah? Craving some good day time boomers around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Once again the 5 day QPF looks good, showing 2-4" over a large area of the SE. I'm taking it with a grain of salt until it actually falls, though. The last 2 'big' 5 day events I was looking forward to netted less than an inch each time, one of them under .25" during the 'widespread 3-5" totals expected". Today looked really promising for a while, the way the radar lit up with popcorn showers everywhere this morning, and we actually got hit by 3 of them, collecting several hundredths...then things shifted west or east, or washed out as they are prone to do with little steering currents, and once again we listened to someone elses thunder when things popped up 5 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 And still a big nada here in kvegas thanks to our rain shield. Rain to the west, a couple showers east, but still missed. High hopes for the week ahead...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 We ended up with about 2 inches were I live but closer to the boarder that got hit really hard. Major flooding on local creeks and rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 1.98" of rain fell tonight. Crazy, huh? Five to six inches dumped on the Town of Unicoi, causing major flash flooding. Several emergency shelters are open, and The Red Cross is assisting. Several roads and bridges have washed away, and many homes are flooded. Meanwhile, Johnson City experienced similar problems. Downtown Johnson City is notorious for flooding problems, and today proved to be no exception. The Mall at Johnson City also experienced flooding issues, particularly in the mall's parking lots and lower-level food court. Here's a full article: http://johnsoncitypress.com/News/article.php?id=101697 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looks like next weekend could be a very nice weekend temp wise. Cooling down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Looks like a little moisture is trying to come in off the coast into the Midlands of SC, but yesterday was quite a fail around here. Just to our north a hefty storm dropped some good rain. From the Lake, I could almost touch the rain it was so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 1.98" of rain fell tonight. Crazy, huh? Five to six inches dumped on the Town of Unicoi, causing major flash flooding. Several emergency shelters are open, and The Red Cross is assisting. Several roads and bridges have washed away, and many homes are flooded. Meanwhile, Johnson City experienced similar problems. Downtown Johnson City is notorious for flooding problems, and today proved to be no exception. The Mall at Johnson City also experienced flooding issues, particularly in the mall's parking lots and lower-level food court. Here's a full article: http://johnsoncitypr...e.php?id=101697 Impressive. You've been in the jackpot zone lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Rain chances lowered for today. That's the kind of trend I like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Rain chances lowered for today. That's the kind of trend I like to see. Typical for these parts...same with snow, same with severe. Systems look fantastic until the actual event arrives..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Impressive. You've been in the jackpot zone lately. Indeed. I've recorded 5.09" of rain thus far in August. The obvious benefit is a lush green lawn, heh. Right now, though, 1"/hr rates is enough to induce abnormal flooding, and heavier rain creates a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Nice spin currently located over Southwest Georgia is expected to slowly move north over the next 24-36 hours...that along with the front which is getting hung up across the Appalachians will be setting the table for a pretty good rain event starting late this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Models are showing a robust shortwave digging into the Great Lakes in the Thurs-Fri timeframe. This drags what looks to be the most significant cold front we've seen since May into the SE. Bottom line, chances for showers and storms increase late in the week as the front pushes into our perma-warm, humid air. All of the modeling have the front penetrating toward coastal areas. It's possible that this is overdone, but the ensemble support is there for a significant front to dig well into the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I have been fielding phone calls since late yesterday for water in basements and flooding issues. It sucks that a normal flood policy won't cover flooding, but that's how it goes. Several homes were washed from their foundations in the dry creek area of carter county (Elizabethton) last night. Swift water rescues were common. After having over 12 inches of rain last month our ground just can't handle it anymore. Even north JC (which doesn't have a problem with flooding, had SEVERAL areas of pretty severe flooding. This is a once in 100 year type flood event and deserving of its own thread, I just don't have the time to put it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I figured you got clobbered. .08" imby. Lol. wow, that is surprising. ended up with a total of about 3" - and you are not that far away. must have been lucky and got under some training imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 From Raleigh regarding late week... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN EARLY FRIDAY AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AS THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SEEM TO HANDLE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THE BEST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND MID DAY FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z GFS GENERATES 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 DEGREES C/KM...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW THROUGH APPROX 12Z SATURDAY. THE FRONT COULD THEN LINGER OVER THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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