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August 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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Although heat can occur after Labor Day, September rarely has prolonged heat in North Carolina. For instance, in the Triad, the last 90 degree temperature occurred on Sept 2 last year; Sept 25 in 2010; Aug 27 in 2009; Aug 19 in 2008; OCTOBER 9 in 2007; and Aug 30 in 2006. For Charlotte, the last 90 degree days occurred on Sept 14 in 2011; Sept 25 in 2010; Aug 27 in 2009; Sept 6 in 2008; October 9 in 2007; and Aug 30 in 2006. Right now, there are no 90's in the longrange Triad forecast for the rest of August, although the reliability of such forecasts is not high.

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The NAM 4K model really nailed the rain that has blossomed over the NC foothills and W piedmont this evening. Here's the sim radar from the 06Z run this morning for 9 PM tonight:

hires_ref_se_20.png

And, here's the most recent radar out of GSP:

GSP_0.png

I didn't give it much thought this morning when I viewed this, and all afternoon was just partly cloudy. But the rain showed up right on schedule around 8:30, and so far I've gotten 0.36 inch out of it. Not bad!

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Geesh - this lush and green "severe drought" I've been in has brought the need for gutters to my attention. I wish we could spread this out to areas with actual drought problems - I'm looking at upwards of 11"-12" of rain since the beginning of July (and I believe I'm missing a few inches from when I was out of town on two different occasions).

This was around 8:00 PM earlier this evening (my front yard):

http://youtu.be/f3jLwYRhqP4?hd=1

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This shaping up to be a glorious August in the Mnts. Day after day of upper 70s for highs & Low to upper 50s for lows. So far 13 of 21 days the high temp. in Asheville has been below normal.

Yep this month has been darn near perfect in the weathr category. Just beautiful weather at every turn. Had a low this morning of 53 degrees. I can feel Fall in the air!

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TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT:

1000-850 MB THICKNESSES INCREASE ROUGHLY 5-10 METERS ON FRIDAY...

SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NE ACROSS THE AREA...AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD

PERSIST...AT LEAST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE

HIGHS SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE LOWER/MID

80S...COOLEST EAST/WARMEST WEST. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS TO ADVECT

SOUTHWARD INTO MOST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS THE SFC-H85 LOW

PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN OBX...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY

COOLER...IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES FRI/FRI NIGHT:

EXPECT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST ON THE

EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK/STALLED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL

NC/VA...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BETTER UPSLOPE

COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OVER

CENTRAL NC. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. -VINCENT

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Is there a chance of severe weather in NC tomorrow? WRAL weather just posted this on their facebook page with a pic of radar out of GA. "Watching something in Georgia that's making me think tomorrow could look rather ugly!" And that's all they said.

Robert alluded to this a couple hours ago on Facebook

"Surprising development in GA/Carolinas now with such a deep trough, there may be a weak upper low forming in eastern GA. The short range models keep an impressive shear zone in place, with good showers/storm coverage, especially eastern sections of GA and central to eastern Carolinas next 2 days."

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just got woke up by a bright flash and huge boom - realized it was thunder and checked radar and bam lol. looks like some biggies around ne ga. coming from the east/northeast and they tend to be a bit stronger than those from the more usual west to east. my dog is not happy at the moment :lol:

Edited to add: great light show last night and got .94" :) feels great out this morning

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Missed out on my daily .1 yesterday, receiving only thunder as the rain went by a few miles west. Hope this afternoon will pop me a shower, and I don't much care if it thunders. I see 'em forming on radar, and headed this way....but so often that don't mean squat, lol.

Holding out hope for the hurricane! I've been thinking right over Destin as a weak Cat 2, but don't care if it goes into Daytona, or Mobile as long as if finds it's way to my yard on the way out. It's got a big rain shield, so hope it has a lot of rain packed into it. A foot or so would be very welcome here :) Trying to build volume a tenth at a time, is achingly slow. T

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Missed out on my daily .1 yesterday, receiving only thunder as the rain went by a few miles west. Hope this afternoon will pop me a shower, and I don't much care if it thunders. I see 'em forming on radar, and headed this way....but so often that don't mean squat, lol.

Holding out hope for the hurricane! I've been thinking right over Destin as a weak Cat 2, but don't care if it goes into Daytona, or Mobile as long as if finds it's way to my yard on the way out. It's got a big rain shield, so hope it has a lot of rain packed into it. A foot or so would be very welcome here :) Trying to build volume a tenth at a time, is achingly slow. T

I agree with you Tony :hug: I'd love to see the smaller rivers and ponds full again.

CAE has done well once again this month in the rainfall dept, as we are sitting at 9.38" so far and that's +5.32 above normal. I believe that will be the 3rd time this year where CAE has had above normal rainfall. :wub:

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I agree with you Tony :hug: I'd love to see the smaller rivers and ponds full again.

CAE has done well once again this month in the rainfall dept, as we are sitting at 9.38" so far and that's +5.32 above normal. I believe that will be the 3rd time this year where CAE has had above normal rainfall. :wub:

Nice rains with a bit of thunder, first in a long time!

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Missed out on my daily .1 yesterday, receiving only thunder as the rain went by a few miles west. Hope this afternoon will pop me a shower, and I don't much care if it thunders. I see 'em forming on radar, and headed this way....but so often that don't mean squat, lol.

Holding out hope for the hurricane! I've been thinking right over Destin as a weak Cat 2, but don't care if it goes into Daytona, or Mobile as long as if finds it's way to my yard on the way out. It's got a big rain shield, so hope it has a lot of rain packed into it. A foot or so would be very welcome here :) Trying to build volume a tenth at a time, is achingly slow. T

Tony,

Please bring the mojo on this storm. Reel it on in for us and you will be a legend.

.20" last night was a nice surprise around here. I'm at 4.55" for the month but including that .20" from last night, I've only received .36" in 9 days. I welcome what's left of Isaac into my backyard.

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Hey, man, I'm working on it :) This my second day without anything, and it already feels stressed outside, so I know how you are feeling. The storm is big, and I can't help but believe it will get us some rain if it makes it into the gulf. And even it it goes into Miss, they usually curve back, so you guys should get some even with a miss, even if I don't. May'retta always seems to score somehow, rain or snow, so I'd be happy enough in your shoes. One of the top 5 heaviest rains I ever saw was in Marietta, so I always think of you as rain city :) T

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I don't know why since it was 60 degrees but it sure felt colder that. In fact it felt cool enough to have to put a sweeter on this morning (before sunrise...been up since 5:30). First time since this past winter/spring. Sure gets me in the mood for fall.

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Didn't get anything like Roanoke Rapids, but I went to bed last night with 0.25" and was happy to have it. I woke up this morning with a 24 hour total of 1.62". When I saw that I didn't believe it. I was sure that something had bumped the rain guage last night, but I checked out the hourly reports and it looked legit. I checked out WRAL and saw the 8 hour radar history and the reports of flooding.

Man it was kind of a crazy rain week. They had predicted a rainy last weekend and dry later in the week. We got a disappointing 0.24" on Sunday, 0.11" on Monday and nothing Tuesday or Wednesday. Then a kind of random throw-away system seemed to pop out of nowhere yesterday and dumped 1.3". Funny how that works out sometimes.

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ROANOKE RAPIDS -- A foot of rain pounded Roanoke Rapids on Saturday, washing out streets, forcing more than 50 evacuations and shutting down Interstate 95 for several hours.

No injuries were reported in the flooding, which sent roughly 52 people to an emergency shelter for much of Saturday. By sundown, the shelter had closed with the last four people relocated to temporary housing, but water flowed 2 feet deep over parts of the Halifax County town.

The flood found its way into the basement of Halifax Community Hospital.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/08/25/2291864/flooding-hits-halifax-county-from.html

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