New England Early August Discussion, banter, obs

[powderfreak]

If anyone is curious I just looked at the numbers for my area's ASOS departures from normal and so far August has been an all out torch even if daytime highs haven't been that hot. Here are the current departures for this area (remember this area averaged near normal or below for July):

BTV...+4.8F

MVL...+4.8F

MPV...+3.9F

1V4...+2.3F

Average here at Morrisville-Stowe for today is listed as 78/54 at the ASOS (730ft asl). We haven't even been coming close to that low temperature due to the increased humidity. Although we are only 13 days into August, its the overnight lows that are killing us right now and daytime highs haven't been too much above normal. Here's the overnight low temperature distribution between July and August this summer for this area, KMVL:

Month...Lows in the 40s...Lows in the 50s...Lows in the 60s

August...........0........................5.........................8

July................7........................18.......................6

So even less than halfway through this month, we've already had more days with overnight mins in the 60s than the entire month of July. Last month averaged near normal with several stretches of below normal temperatures (and 7 mins in the 40s), whereas this month we have only had 1 below normal day and 12 above normal days.

Its obvious that the humidity that SNE was seeing in July that led to positive departures, has finally moved northward as we were spared that in July with very dry air and large 30-40F+ diurnal temperature swings. Now we are barely seeing 20F diurnal swings with the increased humidity...and likewise we are now seeing similar departures to what SNE had through the first half of July.

[moneypitmike]

We made it through the 6 AM sunrise and 8 PM sunset "barrier" today at ALB. Now under 14 hours of daylight and slipping at 2:30 minutes per day.

So any heat/humidity is certainly on borrowed time.

Noticed yesterday that the sunrise at KPIT was at 6:11. That's about 11-12 minutes later than the official sunrise at BAF (the nearest site longitudinally). Extra 'darkness' courtesy of the hills looming to my east.

Sitting on a back porch in Falmouth right now and it is just delightful!

76/64 and clear with nowhere to be but with the family for days and days.

Nice. We'll be heading to Falmouth two weekends from now. Enjoy.

[Damage In Tolland]

Humid

[CoastalWx]

Humid

Change is coming,

[Damage In Tolland]

Change is coming,

For a short 1-3 day period..Then you can see on the ensembles how it reverts right back to what we've had..although maybe with more of a wsw flow instead of southerly. So yes,,theres about 1-3 days early next week where it milds down and dries out..but after that it comes right back for an extended spell

[MainePhotog]

If anyone is curious I just looked at the numbers for my area's ASOS departures from normal and so far August has been an all out torch even if daytime highs haven't been that hot. Here are the current departures for this area (remember this area averaged near normal or below for July):

BTV...+4.8F

MVL...+4.8F

MPV...+3.9F

1V4...+2.3F

Average here at Morrisville-Stowe for today is listed as 78/54 at the ASOS (730ft asl). We haven't even been coming close to that low temperature due to the increased humidity. Although we are only 13 days into August, its the overnight lows that are killing us right now and daytime highs haven't been too much above normal. Here's the overnight low temperature distribution between July and August this summer for this area, KMVL:

Month...Lows in the 40s...Lows in the 50s...Lows in the 60s

August...........0........................5.........................8

July................7........................18.......................6

So even less than halfway through this month, we've already had more days with overnight mins in the 60s than the entire month of July. Last month averaged near normal with several stretches of below normal temperatures (and 7 mins in the 40s), whereas this month we have only had 1 below normal day and 12 above normal days.

Its obvious that the humidity that SNE was seeing in July that led to positive departures, has finally moved northward as we were spared that in July with very dry air and large 30-40F+ diurnal temperature swings. Now we are barely seeing 20F diurnal swings with the increased humidity...and likewise we are now seeing similar departures to what SNE had through the first half of July.

My station records are showing +3.60°F for August so far. This stretch of humid weather has been the worst since I have lived here in Maine. We do get sea breezes, which will lower temps, but they are humid sea breezes.

[CoastalWx]

For a short 1-3 day period..Then you can see on the ensembles how it reverts right back to what we've had..although maybe with more of a wsw flow instead of southerly. So yes,,theres about 1-3 days early next week where it milds down and dries out..but after that it comes right back for an extended spell

It won't be as bad as we bad. Obviously we'll go back and forth...we always seem to do this time of year. Your 1-3 day and then return ti swamp seems a little aggressive, but obviously they'll be a little warm swamp to come. Get off the high dew horse because severe chances are waning.

[Damage In Tolland]

It won't be as bad as we had. Obviously we'll go back and forth...we always seem to do this time of year. Your 1-3 day and then return ti swamp seems a little aggressive, but obviously they'll be a little warm swamp to come. Get off the high dew horse because severe chances are waning.

We have tomorrow and Fri/Sat for severe..and then that's probably about it

[CoastalWx]

I wonder what the color change in GC is. 30%? I notice since MPM's partner in crime is gone...the God's country fables are less and less.

[CapturedNature]

We made it through the 6 AM sunrise and 8 PM sunset "barrier" today at ALB. Now under 14 hours of daylight and slipping at 2:30 minutes per day.

So any heat/humidity is certainly on borrowed time.

Noticed yesterday that the sunrise at KPIT was at 6:11. That's about 11-12 minutes later than the official sunrise at BAF (the nearest site longitudinally). Extra 'darkness' courtesy of the hills looming to my east.

We have tomorrow and Fri/Sat for severe..and then that's probably about it

One nice thing about this time of year is that we start ticking off the "lasts" and "firsts" as we approach autumn and winter. I look forward to the "last" 80° day and the "first" frost. Time is ticking....

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some of my birch trees are 20% yellow and shedding leaves

Few acorns

[CapturedNature]

I wonder what the color change in GC is. 30%? I notice since MPM's partner in crime is gone...the God's country fables are less and less.

LOL...When I was driving around yesterday I saw a sickly maple tree with some color on it. I'm sure there's a few more in the "higher terrain"/bogs.

[CoastalWx]

LOL...When I was driving around yesterday I saw a sickly maple tree with some color on it. I'm sure there's a few more in the "higher terrain"/bogs.

I've seen a few, but those are the typical ones that have issues.

[CoastalWx]

We have tomorrow and Fri/Sat for severe..and then that's probably about it

Actually there is an ULL that moves west and prevents the good cool air from coming into SNE, however it's good and bad because the front probably will hang just east of us and give clouds or showers from time to time. I think you are right in that we never get the good cool dry air along with sun..might have to deal with clouds perhaps to go along with it.

[CT Rain]

Off to Boston for the night to see Springsteen at Fenway!!

It's going to be tough leaving the CT River Valley

[Allenson]

I wonder what the color change in GC is. 30%? I notice since MPM's partner in crime is gone...the God's country fables are less and less.

LOL, no fall color here by any means... But, the trees are starting to have that late summer tired look. The leaves don't have that fresh green look anymore but instead, a more tired green

[HM]

From an upcoming sensible weather standpoint though, it just seems like things are changing drastically. Aside from the obvious cooler changes ongoing for the Plains/Midwest through the 6-10 day, we have 90s-100s on the way for Seattle-Portland at the end of the week...with aboves out west continuing..Also, it is expected to reach the 90s in London this week, a huge change from the cool weather theyve had alll summer.

Sensible weather-wise, no doubt things are changing. Is it possible we go right back to the widespread warmth for September?

[Logan11]

You know where to go for the latest GC foliage report. It was 55/55 this morning in the glen.

I was 57 out here on the fields....not bad.

I wonder what the color change in GC is. 30%? I notice since MPM's partner in crime is gone...the God's country fables are less and less.

[Flying MXZ]

You know where to go for the latest GC foliage report. It was 55/55 this morning in the glen.

I was 57 out here on the fields....not bad.

Yea, 55 here. Glad I don't have the deal with the humidity like Tolland does.

[MaineJayhawk]

I wonder what the color change in GC is. 30%? I notice since MPM's partner in crime is gone...the God's country fables are less and less.

I haven't seen anything at elevation in the Whites, but as Allenson noted they definitely have that late-season look. Won't be much longer.

[Damage In Tolland]

Actually there is an ULL that moves west and prevents the good cool air from coming into SNE, however it's good and bad because the front probably will hang just east of us and give clouds or showers from time to time. I think you are right in that we never get the good cool dry air along with sun..might have to deal with clouds perhaps to go along with it.

Yeah maybe days of like 77/65 or something before retorch later in month and sadly all of Sept. Maybe we'll sneak a cane up the coast if the deep midwest trough holds

[Logan11]

Yeah I had a taste of the CT humidity over the weekend and it was nasty.

Yea, 55 here. Glad I don't have the deal with the humidity like Tolland does.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah maybe days of like 77/65 or something before retorch later in month and sadly all of Sept. Maybe we'll sneak a cane up the coast if the deep midwest trough holds

Weeklies are mild in September fwiw. Forget the cane pipedream. If it happens, it's like winning the powerball. Luck.

[NJwinter23]

Sensible weather-wise, no doubt things are changing. Is it possible we go right back to the widespread warmth for September?

I guess it is very possible man. In fact, the latest euro weeklies do just that with weeks 3 and 4 turning hot again across the Midwest/east (8/27 to 9/9).

For a while now I was siding towards the same general aboves pattern winning out especially over the drought regions, with risks towards a cooler east developing..Though in light of everything we just discussed in previous pages (the impending cool shot for the plains/East, etc...), I was reconsidering some thoughts for September over all, do I'm not very confident at this point.

Would you say we are more inclined in a year like this (where we've had a lingering nina atmosphere in a developing el nino following multi-year nina) to see the pattern flip abruptly, rather than more of a back and forth step down process?

[HM]

I guess it is very possible man. In fact, the latest euro weeklies do just that with weeks 3 and 4 turning hot again across the Midwest/east (8/27 to 9/9).

For a while now I was siding towards the same general aboves pattern winning out especially over the drought regions, with strong risks towards a cooler east developing..Though in light of everything we just discussed in previous pages (the impending cool shot for the plains/East, etc...), I was reconsidering some thoughts for September over all, do I'm not very confident at this point.

Would you say we are more inclined in a year like this (where we've had a lingering nina atmosphere in a developing el nino following multi-year nina) to see the pattern flip abruptly, rather than more of a back and forth step down process?

Not necessarily. The pattern will be a function of time of year and state of progression/retrogression. The times when progression ceases and retrogression starts will usually be the times of most blocking and possibly developing a western ridge. This will give off the impression of a gradual stepping down process possibly.

As far as this winter, I don't see something nearly as extreme as 06-07 flip wise. I can't wait to watch the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley get good winter storms. lol

[HM]

I remember back in August of 2002 some pretty nasty heat around this time before the pattern reversed to cold and wet late month. I think Philadelphia was consistently hitting 100 or better for a while. The 2002 comparisons are a little much in that regard.

[NJwinter23]

Not necessarily. The pattern will be a function of time of year and state of progression/retrogression. The times when progression ceases and retrogression starts will usually be the times of most blocking and possibly developing a western ridge. This will give off the impression of a gradual stepping down process possibly.

As far as this winter, I don't see something nearly as extreme as 06-07 flip wise. I can't wait to watch the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley get good winter storms. lol

Gotcha. For what its worth, the weeklies at 500 do show the Aleutian low shifting west in the means with time, leading to the downstream pattern described in weeks 3 and 4.

06-07 was absolutely wild. From one of the warmest (the warmest?) Decembers/winter months to the 2nd coldest winter month since 1994 in February. Oh and a pair of 3-6" sleet events .

I'm personally feeling encouraged early on about the upcoming winter being interesting at times and at least close to average.. Im' not sure if that is warranted at this stage, and I could just be thinking about how terrible last winter was and realizing that it's only up from here.

[HM]

Gotcha. For what its worth, the weeklies at 500 do show the Aleutian low shifting west in the means with time, leading to the downstream pattern described in weeks 3 and 4.

06-07 was absolutely wild. From one of the warmest (the warmest?) Decembers/winter months to the 2nd coldest winter month since 1994 in February. Oh and a pair of 3-6" sleet events .

I'm personally feeling encouraged early on about the upcoming winter being interesting at times and at least close to average.. Im' not sure if that is warranted at this stage, and I could just be thinking about how terrible last winter was and realizing that it's only up from here.

There's a lot to be excited about, all perception of following a crappy winter aside. But the forecasters going for a 77-78 or 02-03 styled winter are simply bullshting. There is no indication in the ocean currents, solar cycle, stratosphere or ENSO setup that these years should be thrown around as analogs yet.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Another delightful day in Falmouth. Sunny, light breeze, 76/63. Off to South Cape Beach for the day.

Nice. We'll be heading to Falmouth two weekends from now. Enjoy.

I grew up coming down here summers (N. Falmouth) so let me know if you're looking for anything in particular although I think Phil/CCWeather would be an even more knowlegeable source of info.

[CoastalWx]

I remember back in August of 2002 some pretty nasty heat around this time before the pattern reversed to cold and wet late month. I think Philadelphia was consistently hitting 100 or better for a while. The 2002 comparisons are a little much in that regard.

Yes BOS hit 101 too during that time.