CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 You cant possibly sit there and proclaim that the upcoming pattern is more of the same from the previous months...something is clearly switching on us. -3SD -NAO on the euro emsembles. That's gonna shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 -3SD -NAO on the euro emsembles. That's gonna shake things up. may that hold from now until april... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 The airmass sucks. For those pinning all there hopes for high dews on getting an EF3 in their neighborhood....good luck to that..lol. I'll take the odds on that and rather have more comfortable air. At least we busted the drought conditions over most of the area with this airmass. Since that change in pattern near the end of the July to more moist flow, all sites are either at or above normal on the summer now for rainfall. We still have a deficit going back to last winter (since winter was bone dry), but at least it hasn't built upon itself in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 At least we busted the drought conditions over most of the area with this airmass. Since that change in pattern near the end of the July to more moist flow, all sites are either at or above normal on the summer now for rainfall. We still have a deficit going back to last winter (since winter was bone dry), but at least it hasn't built upon itself in the summer. We went from the worst drought of our lives, to highest dews of our lives according to some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 JB advertising a big flip akin to 2002 on his site.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 may that hold from now until april... One can only hope. Summers have been -NAO prone recently. Why, I do not know...some say heat flux from the arctic...but I have a hard time seeing how that heat flux can build strong ridging at times overhead. Maybe it's part of it...I really don't know. You could argue the decadal cycle too I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 At least we busted the drought conditions over most of the area with this airmass. Since that change in pattern near the end of the July to more moist flow, all sites are either at or above normal on the summer now for rainfall. We still have a deficit going back to last winter (since winter was bone dry), but at least it hasn't built upon itself in the summer. Yeah i thought this summer would be bad,also coming off the dry winter. It got pretty bad down here during mid july, yet scooter was talking about a wetter pattern taking shape..he was correct...lawns are back to green here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 JB advertising a big flip akin to 2002 on his site.... For the autumn? Winter? 2002 was a cold autumn but not until October/November. September 2002 was a huge torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 It doesn't feel too bad here today. Also it's mostly cloudy so that helps. I was in CT/MA, but I think yesterday was a pretty nice day here also. Isn't today a bit of relief Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 For the autumn? Winter? 2002 was a cold autumn but not until October/November. September 2002 was a huge torch. Both Joe's over there are going for something like 02-03 77-78 for the winter...shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, but that's what they are barking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 -3SD -NAO on the euro emsembles. That's gonna shake things up. That certainly helps, though as you can see most of the summer has featured a strongly -NAO. I think the real driver is the flip in the Pacific/West coast pattern to more of an el nino look. Also, that ridiculous polar vortex we have in the arctic breaks down and sends the first real meaningful below average air into North America for as long as I can remember at this point lol...hence the pattern has a later fall wavelength look to it with a +PNA/-NAO fully correlating to what you would expect in the cool season... I'm wondering if we revert back to the earlier summer pattern at times for later August/September, or if we are pulling a general cold turkey switch in the pattern moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 A couple good canes came of the Carib. toward the Yucatan and Gulf in September 2002. For the autumn? Winter? 2002 was a cold autumn but not until October/November. September 2002 was a huge torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 That certainly helps, though as you can see most of the summer has featured a strongly -NAO. I think the real driver is the flip in the Pacific/West coast pattern to more of an el nino look. Also, that ridiculous polar vortex we have in the arctic breaks down and sends the first real meaningful below average air into North America for as long as I can remember at this point lol...hence the pattern has a later fall wavelength look to it with a +PNA/-NAO fully correlating to what you would expect in the cool season... I'm wondering if we revert back to the earlier summer pattern at times for later August/September, or if we are pulling a general cold turkey switch in the pattern moving forward. The nice MJO wave is certainly helping, that may be a decent looking wave moving into P1. The EC takes the wave and bring it to the COD before coming back out in p6.Earlier models had it back into P5 which probably would have brought the heat back. So I guess the risk is more warmth for sure, but the MJO as usual isn't a clear forecast right now.With Nino coming on..maybe it's not so warm...I really can't say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 That GOA vortex is migrating west toward the Aleutions. That would certainly be a good thing heading into winter. If we set up a vortex south or SSW of the Aleutions come December, we will have a very high chance of a cold/snowy winter. There's still a lot of time though before that point. The further west placement is one of the reasons for the models showing cooler air down into the CONUS. Also the first hint of wavlengths beginning to lengthen again...a process that won't really become noticeable for another 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 The nice MJO wave is certainly helping, that may be a decent looking wave moving into P1. The EC takes the wave and bring it to the COD before coming back out in p6.Earlier models had it back into P5 which probably would have brought the heat back. So I guess the risk is more warmth for sure, but the MJO as usual isn't a clear forecast right now.With Nino coming on..maybe it's not so warm...I really can't say. Very true with regards to the MJO, neglected to mention that. Phase 8-1 is well correlated this time of year to a cool down in the Plains..This cool down is more on the widespread/anomalous side though. Unfortunately the euro MJO forecasts havent updated on cpc since the 6th, so I'm not sure what to make of where that wave is heading...that's also the last day the glaam was updated, so real big help lol...SOI also supports the nino tendencies here. I guess it wouldnt completely surprise me, following 2 years of la nina with a clear atmospheric hang over through this July, if our change to a more el nino atmospheric pattern was very abrupt. In the end though I would agree with you that there should probably be some waves of warmth returning, just nothing nearly as anomalously warm as the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Both Joe's over there are going for something like 02-03 77-78 for the winter...shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, but that's what they are barking I don't think the current state of the PDO is going to allow for a 2002-esque flip and subsequent Pacific pattern (ditto '77-'78)...but its hard to say for sure. The ECMWF seasonal had a PAC pattern very similar to '02-'03 but I don't believe it yet. 2009 had a horrific vortex over AK in November but it broke down and the pattern flipped remarkably in December...however, with a more potent Nino, it was probably easier to force the change. If we got that again this year, I wouldn't feel good about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 That certainly helps, though as you can see most of the summer has featured a strongly -NAO. I think the real driver is the flip in the Pacific/West coast pattern to more of an el nino look. Also, that ridiculous polar vortex we have in the arctic breaks down and sends the first real meaningful below average air into North America for as long as I can remember at this point lol...hence the pattern has a later fall wavelength look to it with a +PNA/-NAO fully correlating to what you would expect in the cool season... I'm wondering if we revert back to the earlier summer pattern at times for later August/September, or if we are pulling a general cold turkey switch in the pattern moving forward. The only real change I see besides the obvious height reversal in the eastern CONUS is across the NP into Siberia where anomalies have reversed. This ends up mimicking a cool season setup to some degree. However, the Pacific is still the same. Since late July, the pattern has been a state of progression and now is beginning to head back to retrogression. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/500hgt_5dintvl.gif If the ECMWF ensemble anomalies for the WPO region were to be realized in the cold season, the upcoming cold shot wouldn't be all that anomalous IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Dews keep on dropping here... down to 59F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 The nice MJO wave is certainly helping, that may be a decent looking wave moving into P1. The EC takes the wave and bring it to the COD before coming back out in p6.Earlier models had it back into P5 which probably would have brought the heat back. So I guess the risk is more warmth for sure, but the MJO as usual isn't a clear forecast right now.With Nino coming on..maybe it's not so warm...I really can't say. I don't think the true MJO wave is in phase 8-1 and that possibly kelvin wave activity is obscuring the signal and internal Walker Cell dynamics of the developing El Nino. It is quite possible that the true MJO is further east already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 I don't think the true MJO wave is in phase 8-1 and that possibly kelvin wave activity is obscuring the signal and internal Walker Cell dynamics of the developing El Nino. It is quite possible that the true MJO is further east already. Yeah I guess it's possible with the best OLR near the Philippines and then further east in the EPAC. One thing I do notice is that the main vortex and coldest air is over in Russia now and looks to retro towards Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 We made it through the 6 AM sunrise and 8 PM sunset "barrier" today at ALB. Now under 14 hours of daylight and slipping at 2:30 minutes per day. So any heat/humidity is certainly on borrowed time. Dews keep on dropping here... down to 59F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 The only real change I see besides the obvious height reversal in the eastern CONUS is across the NP into Siberia where anomalies have reversed. This ends up mimicking a cool season setup to some degree. However, the Pacific is still the same. Since late July, the pattern has been a state of progression and now is beginning to head back to retrogression. http://www.cpc.ncep....hgt_5dintvl.gif If the ECMWF ensemble anomalies for the WPO region were to be realized in the cold season, the upcoming cold shot wouldn't be all that anomalous IMO. Yeah I guess you are right, there arent really any major changes going on with the heights out west since ~ the 20th..I was making a wrong assumption there. From an upcoming sensible weather standpoint though, it just seems like things are changing drastically. Aside from the obvious cooler changes ongoing for the Plains/Midwest through the 6-10 day, we have 90s-100s on the way for Seattle-Portland at the end of the week...with aboves out west continuing..Also, it is expected to reach the 90s in London this week, a huge change from the cool weather theyve had alll summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Sitting on a back porch in Falmouth right now and it is just delightful! 76/64 and clear with nowhere to be but with the family for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Low 60s, but it feels a hell of a lot better. I do think we'll see some relief next week. The long range is changing a bit. The 570 thickness contour which has been a permanent fixture struggles to get here. So while it may be a little above normal in the 11-15 day, the back is slowly cracking on this. I'm done with this airmass, it's a waste of a summertime enjoyment. After this week, it looks like we get a well deserved break in some shape or form. Might not be always refreshing, but it will be a break. A day 8-10 euro op cool down or any cool down for the matter should be taken with a grain of salt if the ensembles are meh about it...which they were. At least this time around, the hemispheric pattern is changing. Sure it might not be pure Canadian air here, but it probably will be a break from this swamp of recently. September can still be very warm and humid so it doesn't always mean we cool because we head into late August. I can't wait to rid this puke airmass. If I wanted to live in A/C, I would move to FL. Scootie ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 That GOA vortex is migrating west toward the Aleutions. That would certainly be a good thing heading into winter. If we set up a vortex south or SSW of the Aleutions come December, we will have a very high chance of a cold/snowy winter. There's still a lot of time though before that point. The further west placement is one of the reasons for the models showing cooler air down into the CONUS. Also the first hint of wavlengths beginning to lengthen again...a process that won't really become noticeable for another 4-6 weeks. Yep. I started noticing this a week or 2 ago and my optimism rose. Not the same enso state but this summer evolution is starting to remind me of 1995 from late July onward. I am starting to feel mighty good about the upcoming winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 If we can just keep that deep trough in the Midwest into Late Sept and the blocking to our NE, we have a pretty good shot at getting a tropical system in here at some point. Euro shows the tropics really coming to life over the next 6 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 If we can just keep that deep trough in the Midwest into Late Sept and the blocking to our NE, we have a pretty good shot at getting a tropical system in here at some point. Euro shows the tropics really coming to life over the next 6 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 86 sunny ciao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 86 sunny ciao! Not quite as hot as your avatar Joe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Well next week looks like a break in some shape or form. Will be welcomed, even if the whole week isn't that refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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