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New England Early August Discussion, banter, obs


Baroclinic Zone

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Footsteps are growing louder for a change in airmasses across the GL and northeast I think. Might not last long, but this is the first "cool shot" into the CONUS in quote a long time. Here in SNE, the cool air may run out of gas somewhat....but I expect somewhat of a cooler and drier shot of air.

Maybe some of the 1st signs of a seasonal change, This heat can't go on forever

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BOX says ride the GFS..no relief in sight

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCTD TSTORMS TUE THRU WED NGT...FLOODING PSBL

* DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION PSBL THURS...QUIET THURS NGT

* FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A CONSTANT STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE

MODEL DIAGNOSTICS...

EVALUATING H5 MASS FIELDS...THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES WITH A

FAVORABLE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THRU WHICH A SERIES OF

SHRTWV DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF MUGGY WX WITH SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PDS OF RELIEF. REFLECTING ON THE

PREV WEEK FCSTS...THE GFS HANDLED THE LONGEVITY OF THIS PAST WEEKEND

SYS MORESO THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. IT WAS THE GFS THAT INITIALLY

PROPOSED SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE A STALLING H5 CLOSED LOW SYS ACROSS

THE GRT LKS DURING THE LATER HALF OF LAST WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING

WEEKEND. WHILE THE GFS HAS EXHIBITED SHORT-TERM FAILURES...ITS

LONG-TERM EVALUATION IS WORTHY OF NOTE. THERE ARE STILL CHALLENGES

WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MASS FIELDS AMONGST MDL SOLNS RESULTING IN

VARIATIONS IN SFC FEATURES...BUT AS HPC HAS NOTED...A BLEND OF

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MDL SOLNS PROVIDES A FAVORABLE CONSENSUS

OF THE LONG-TERM FCST.

IN EVALUATING THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC FCST SUITE...THE 13/0Z GFS

HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY IN PROGRESSION OF FEATURES THRU THE WEEK

COMPARED TO THE 12/12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. ALTHO NOTABLE DIFFERENCES...

THE GENERAL TREND IS THERE TO WARRANT A CONSENSUS BLEND. ACTUALLY

LIKE THE 13/0Z GFS FOR NEXT WEEKEND STALLING THE TROPICAL MOIST FLOW

ALONG THE SE SHORELINE. THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED MUCH THE PAST

MONTH...SO WHY NOT EVALUATE MDL SOLNS WITH A LEVEL OF PERSISTENCE?

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70/62

sunny

windows wide open, letting the fresh summer air in, okx says 86 today for my locale I say 88-89 either way with normals back down to the low 80s its yet another above normal day.

Looks damn sticky later this week, and if the the euro is advertising a front getting hung up in sne, I think we know where it will actually be, at least I hope peeps have learned there lesson.

Make today the ;best day of your life, do something nice, volunteer your time, hold the door open..............shake a vets hand, make a difference!

Top 2 summer day today?

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Enjoy the crappy weekend that comes with it on your connecticut beach

As expected and forecast this prediction was a HUGE failure here. 0.00 inches of rain during daylight hours here, nothing but brilliant blue sunshine all weekend...........sorry:(

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Well yeah I suppose mid 60's are a relief over the low- mid 70's.. But it's certainly not dry or comfortable in that regard

Low 60s, but it feels a hell of a lot better. I do think we'll see some relief next week. The long range is changing a bit. The 570 thickness contour which has been a permanent fixture struggles to get here. So while it may be a little above normal in the 11-15 day, the back is slowly cracking on this.

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Low 60s, but it feels a hell of a lot better. I do think we'll see some relief next week. The long range is changing a bit. The 570 thickness contour which has been a permanent fixture struggles to get here. So while it may be a little above normal in the 11-15 day, the back is slowly cracking on this.

Oh yeah i could see sometime later next week..finally get a couple dry near normal days in here..but the next 7-10 look like what we've been seeing.

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Oh yeah i could see sometime later next week..finally get a couple dry near normal days in here..but the next 7-10 look like what we've been seeing.

I'm done with this airmass, it's a waste of a summertime enjoyment. After this week, it looks like we get a well deserved break in some shape or form. Might not be always refreshing, but it will be a break.

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