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New England Early August Discussion, banter, obs


Baroclinic Zone

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so, if I'm reading this right, sounds like they're calling for reaonsabnly good wx tomorrow morning, setting the state for storms later on? Wasn't the earlier idea that the morning would be crappy and improve somewhat in the afternoon?

SATURDAY...

INTO THE MORNING...ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE ONGOING ALONG S/SE NEW

ENGLAND. ATTENTION FOCUSES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WHERE A

TROPICAL AIRMASS RESIDES...AND WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ANTICIPATE

DESTABILIZING OF THE LOCAL ATMOS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF

SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING

COLD FRNT. LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL /STILL WITHIN THE WARM TONGUE

OF AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LVL LOW OVER THE ERN GRT LKS...

BETTER COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE WELL W/.

WITH PWATS ADVERTISED UP TO 2 INCHES...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE

THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR RESULTING

IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. EXPECT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH

MUGGY CONDITIONS.

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12z euro really mutes the idea of a NE cool down . has trough curving NE into E Great lakes and keeps us on warm side perpetually

in other news 530-540 heights continually move thru alaska and the GOA till 2020

Yeah...looks more like last night's ens now, but even the 12z ens run came in a bit warmer.
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Yeah...looks more like last night's ens now, but even the 12z ens run came in a bit warmer.

Instead of a piece of the monster Arctic PV coming down, it looks as if it just reforms into an ULL around Hudson Bay/Foxe Basin and thus doesn't inject the same magnitude of cold air into the CONUS. Even with a -NAO block, in this pattern we just get a weak trough over the Great Lakes with a muggy, warm southerly flow ahead of it. I don't see any high heat, but the idea of a major cooldown may be slipping, at least this far east.

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Instead of a piece of the monster Arctic PV coming down, it looks as if it just reforms into an ULL around Hudson Bay/Foxe Basin and thus doesn't inject the same magnitude of cold air into the CONUS. Even with a -NAO block, in this pattern we just get a weak trough over the Great Lakes with a muggy, warm southerly flow ahead of it. I don't see any high heat, but the idea of a major cooldown may be slipping, at least this far east.

Yeah many of us were discussing this happening..though a few weenies came in here this morning calling for a nationwide cool down..lol

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Feels like a swamp azz morning here in Southington, CT where I am staying.

Too bad, going to a family GTG in the hills of Bethlehem, CT today and it's a pretty place when there is nice wx.

We'll see somewhat of a change at least with a trough in the east and the idea of a stalled front nearby with low pressure and rain. It does cool off eventually...but again...I don't see cool Canadian air quite yet. Maybe GL and NNE.

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Yeah instead it's cool east winds and rain from a cutoff to our south.

Ok..where have I heard that before? There's not going to be cool east winds..It's a southerly flow with the low over the GL..just like we have now. As long as that Bermuda high is there..we aren;t going to have any fronts stall to our south with cold east winds..esp with 75-80 degree water temps

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JB on FB said....

"Post on ..... tonight shows nino 1.2 has flipped to cold which means back of summer is broken in the plains and east."

Ok..where have I heard that before? There's not going to be cool east winds..It's a southerly flow with the low over the GL..just like we have now. As long as that Bermuda high is there..we aren;t going to have any fronts stall to our south with cold east winds..esp with 75-80 degree water temps

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Ok..where have I heard that before? There's not going to be cool east winds..It's a southerly flow with the low over the GL..just like we have now. As long as that Bermuda high is there..we aren;t going to have any fronts stall to our south with cold east winds..esp with 75-80 degree water temps

I know...tongue in cheek my friend. I do like the ensembles with again..stalled front and low followed by some cooler weather I think. We may bounce back in some shape or form after the 20th, but don't forget climo gets cooler so like I said 2 weeks ago...the days of 95+ temps are likely done. If you want to get your rocks off over 80F temps and high dews...be my guest.

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I know...tongue in cheek my friend. I do like the ensembles with again..stalled front and low followed by some cooler weather I think. We may bounce back in some shape or form after the 20th, but don't forget climo gets cooler so like I said 2 weeks ago...the days of 95+ temps are likely done. If you want to get your rocks off over 80F temps and high dews...be my guest.

That's all i was saying..high dews and wet pattern..just like we've had the last 2 weeks overall. High heat is over..but much above normal with high humidity.
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