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New England Early August Discussion, banter, obs


Baroclinic Zone

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Looks like more humidity and storms Tues/Wed and again Fri next week.

I'd be willing to bet the Euro is overdoing that troughing around day 10.

Euro breaks the heat on day 5. Not day 10. It sweeps across the Plains first and then works itself across the entire country, almost down to Texas, before sweeping east and affecting all of us.

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No it doesn't. Next week is still above normal until days 9-10 if it's even correct.

Yes it does. The trough sweeps into the northern half of the west first on day 5 and pushes south and then east by days 7-8 and continues to push east across the whole country by day 10. Chances are increasing greatly of this occurring as the operational and ensembles continue to show it and with it getting closer and closer.

It also has full support by the euro ensembles.

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Yes it does. The trough sweeps into the northern half of the west first on day 5 and pushes south and then east by days 7-8 and continues to push east across the whole country by day 10. Chances are increasing greatly of this occurring as the operational and ensembles continue to show it and with it getting closer and closer.

It also has full support by the euro ensembles.

like a crazy women ...you can't intimitade or change the rev kev's mind with logic

but in his defense is this the amazing trough for this time of year?

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS240.gif

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Euro ensembles are not as aggressive as the op, but it does support the first cool shot of the season moving into the GL.

The ensembles have a similar cold anomaly but do not push it as far south as the operational, which push it almost down to Texas.

But you cant ask for a more similar look between the operational and ensemble for a day 5-10 period.

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The ensembles have a similar cold anomaly but do not push it as far south as the operational, which push it almost down to Texas.

But you cant ask for a more similar look between the operational and ensemble for a day 5-10 period.

i think the appropriate response was your right scott.

since were in SNE here wtf is your definition of similiar? 6-9 C 850 temps when the trough is here D10 and the ENS with 850 temps 12-13C D10 can't ask for a more "similiar look"?

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Yes it does. The trough sweeps into the northern half of the west first on day 5 and pushes south and then east by days 7-8 and continues to push east across the whole country by day 10. Chances are increasing greatly of this occurring as the operational and ensembles continue to show it and with it getting closer and closer.

It also has full support by the euro ensembles.

:lol:

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The ensembles have a similar cold anomaly but do not push it as far south as the operational, which push it almost down to Texas.

But you cant ask for a more similar look between the operational and ensemble for a day 5-10 period.

Yeah the ensembles are usually never aggressive as the op this far out, agreed. The signal is there for at least the GL. I do think some of this moves into New England.

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i think the appropriate response was your right scott.

since were in SNE here wtf is your definition of similiar? 6-9 C 850 temps when the trough is here D10 and the ENS with 850 temps 12-13C D10 can't ask for a more "similiar look"?

Im sorry, but what?

Me and Coastal are both agreeing that the ensembles are a little less aggressive. Didn't mean to come out sounding like I was disagreeing with him and I'm sure Scott understands that.

The synoptic setup is similar is all I was saying.

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By the way nice job by Kevin regarding dews, 70 dews all the way up into manchester nh, north of the pike. There was some question how far north the front and humidity would get early this week, KFS did well. Euro seems off, tropics too, something is up with that model this year.

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Im sorry, but what?

Me and Coastal are both agreeing that the ensembles are a little less aggressive. Didn't mean to come out sounding like I was disagreeing with him and I'm sure Scott understands that.

The synoptic setup is similar is all I was saying.

I understood what you meant. I think some people are thinking 60s with cold air CU developing when we say this..lol. To me, I do think we get a taste of cooler and drier air...how much so remains in question.

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wow ORH back up to +5.1, the new BDR of sne.

Yeah last winter was around +6 here which is almost exactly average for BDR in winter...a +5 would actually still be colder than BDR's climo, but hopefully I do not have to experience that again any time soon.

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I understood what you meant. I think some people are thinking 60s with cold air CU developing when we say this..lol. To me, I do think we get a taste of cooler and drier air...how much so remains in question.

Confidence should be growing for the Great Lakes region and the plains for a major pattern change for that area. That area has had record heat all summer and the best model and ensembles in the world are both advertising big change for them.

We need 3-4 more days to see if it affects our area as well.

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Im sorry, but what?

Me and Coastal are both agreeing that the ensembles are a little less aggressive. Didn't mean to come out sounding like I was disagreeing with him and I'm sure Scott understands that.

The synoptic setup is similar is all I was saying.

no prob. i should have toned it down.

i just like the NAO and would like it to keep drillin down ....that gives me some hope on the cold shot actually not withering away as we get closer

get rid of the death ridge and GOA low and i'll be happy to roll the dice for a while

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Yeah the ensembles are usually never aggressive as the op this far out, agreed. The signal is there for at least the GL. I do think some of this moves into New England.

Yeah...the op was quite a bit cooler than the ens over the upper midwest. I dont have the maps in front of me on my phone right now, but I believe I saw about an 8C diff up there after the fropa. I would've liked to have seen it closer to a 4C diff.
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Yeah...the op was quite a bit cooler than the ens over the upper midwest. I dont have the maps in front of me on my phone right now, but I believe I saw about an 8C diff up there after the fropa. I would've liked to have seen it closer to a 4C diff.

pretty much why i said ?? on can't get a more similiar look??

glad someone sees that as a difference even when comparing OP to ENS. In fairness no one was arguing the ENS are ever as aggressive as the OP.

rev must be lovin these dew points today

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Yeah...the op was quite a bit cooler than the ens over the upper midwest. I dont have the maps in front of me on my phone right now, but I believe I saw about an 8C diff up there after the fropa. I would've liked to have seen it closer to a 4C diff.

The overall anomalies for that period aren't terribly different though. The ensembles are just not as aggressive.

Euro:

00zECMWF6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

Ensembles:

00zECMWFENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

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Yeah last winter was around +6 here which is almost exactly average for BDR in winter...a +5 would actually still be colder than BDR's climo, but hopefully I do not have to experience that again any time soon.

lol.

I am pretty sure you don't have to worry Will.

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The hemispheric pattern on the ensembles is definitely favoring cooler weather from about Aug 20th and beyond...but that is pretty far out there. We'll be on the east side of that trough with muggier air before it reaches us. N plains are definitely going to be cooling off though big time.

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Certainly have had hotter summers before, but the humidity has been impressive not seeing the 3-7 day breaks we often get, and when it does get humid its crazy humid mid to even tickling upper 70s kind of stuff here. Sub Trop like summer for sure, the way it feels.

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Yeah...the op was quite a bit cooler than the ens over the upper midwest. I dont have the maps in front of me on my phone right now, but I believe I saw about an 8C diff up there after the fropa. I would've liked to have seen it closer to a 4C diff.

It sort of had that look where it lifts out ovetr the Northeast, but high pressure built down which makes me think we'll see some cooler air. How cool, that's up for debate.

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