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New England Early August Discussion, banter, obs


Baroclinic Zone

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Will it or will not be humid Wednesday-Sunday? That is what you have your panties bunched oiver. Most of us are thinking it's humid and are you saying it will be refreshing?

Not in the least bit. You are saying 80s with 70s dews and I was correcting you. You are blowing everything north and I'm just not sure I see constant srly winds with 85/75 from Wednesday right through Sunday. If the euro ensembles are right, Wednesday and Thursday are the warmest day...maybe Sunday. I think we may seabreeze here Thursday. Friday and Saturday may not be the nicest days, but we aren't talking 65/55 by any means.

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Not in the least bit. You are saying 80s with 70s dews and I was correcting you. You are blowing everything north and I'm just not sure I see constant srly winds with 85/75 from Wednesday right through Sunday. If the euro ensembles are right, Wednesday and Thursday are the warmest day...maybe Sunday. I think we may seabreeze here Thursday. Friday and Saturday may not be the nicest days, but we aren't talking 65/55 by any means.

Where are you forecasting the dewpoints Thurs-Sunday south of pike?

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I think this entire month is going to be humid with moderate to heavy swamp ass. I don;t see any days with dews below 63-65 for at least the next 2-3 weeks in most of SNE..at least south of pike..esp now that we've all had quite a bit of rain

No..I think this dry air being forecast in some circles is going to be incorrect. Drier..yes..not in the 50;s for most. Maybe BDL downslopes their way to a 58-59..but in the suburbs and hills where most folks live it will just be normal humid..and then we go back above 70 Thursday thru all of next weekend

:axe:

One day later... 50s widespread for dew points.

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Just did a check on last year's history at KPIT. August 8 was the last day that I hit 80* (at least until Sept 14 when my station was struck by lightning). BOX is forecasting 80's thruogh Thursday, so I guess I'll have them at least through the 9th this year. Hopefully the 70's they have following will come to fruition--especially for Saturday's race.

As I was looking at the historical record, I scratched my head for a moment when I saw a high/low of 34/28 on October 29th. Then I remembered the wonderful 24" of snow I got. Good times!

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Where are you forecasting the dewpoints Thurs-Sunday south of pike?

LOL, that's such a weird question. It depends on the WF, but I don't see dews lower than low to mid 60s. If that front moves north, it's soup city. That might be reserved for Saturday or possible Sunday depending on how things set up. Euro ensembles are pretty adamant on a CAD type signal until Saturday night fwiw. I never said cool dry air, and it won't be. However, it may not be very warm if we have what the euro ensembles show.

It's possible the ensembles might trend north, but I don't see any issues with the solution right now...especially since the GFS seems to be creeping towards it. We have some time to tweak this.

Wednesday and Thursday do look muggy for sure.

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I notice he did not make one post about his home dewpoint, which means even the vegetation filled Davis had dews in the 50s.

I've been at work all day driving around in a live truck so only have been checking in periodically on my phone. I don't even know what the argument is about. Seems like this is what transpired. Correct me if wrong.

  • most oppressive summer in recent memory (wrong)
  • warmest SSTs on record (wrong)
  • SNE being a hurricane magnet because of warm SSTs (wrong)
  • Warm front blowing north to CYUL (wrong)
  • extreme humidity Thursday-Sunday (wrong)

Did I miss anything?

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I've been at work all day driving around in a live truck so only have been checking in periodically on my phone. I don't even know what the argument is about. Seems like this is what transpired. Correct me if wrong.

  • most oppressive summer in recent memory (wrong)
  • warmest SSTs on record (wrong)
  • SNE being a hurricane magnet because of warm SSTs (wrong)
  • Warm front blowing north to CYUL (wrong)
  • extreme humidity Thursday-Sunday (wrong)

Did I miss anything?

That's about it.

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i have one tomato plant with 14 large tomatoes growing on it. they have been loving this wx

Banner year for tomatoes, I have tons of cherry tom's that are as sweet as sugar, and have a ton of beefeater's that are just now turning red and of course will be ready to eat as I head south for vacation, at least the family can stop by and pick and enjoy them.

Banner year for herbs as well.

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i have one tomato plant with 14 large tomatoes growing on it. they have been loving this wx

Are they ripening? Everyone I talk to around here (W. Ma.) has tons of fruit on their plants but nothing is ripening. I blame it on plenty of moisture in early June and then dry conditions slowing things to a crawl.

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That's about it.

This is like the verification shenanigans. Everything has to be taken to the extreme.

Has it been warmer and more humid than normal this summer... yes. Warmest and most humid in memory? no. Not really close either.

Will the warm front struggle moving north? Yes. Will it lift through most of SNE eventually? yes.

Can SSTs help a hurricane? I guess they'll make a small contribution but it's really baroclinic processes up here that dictate storm strength once leaving HSE. Give me a cat 5 near HSE with a closed low digging in the Apps. 78 SST off ACY or 76 will make no noticeable difference.

Will warm SSTs help increase the humidity? A bit...and indirectly help push warm front north... but it certainly won't be the main factor.

Everything isn't always an extreme... but we love to take things out of context then say people were wrong lol.

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Who has been arguing? i certainly haven't? In case anyone has noticed..I have totally changed the way I've posted on here. When was the last time i posted an AWT or anything like that. Though i've seen mets do it even yetserday.

Scooter has been the only one lately who has been confrontational...Maybe Joe too.

LOL it was fine. I just got a chuckle out of everytime I logged on a new :weenie: topic being thrown out and quickly shot down. We made it through a lot of weenieisms today.

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LOL it was fine. I just got a chuckle out of everytime I logged on a new :weenie: topic being thrown out and quickly shot down. We made it through a lot of weenieisms today.

I even made a post today about not arguing..and immed. that post got attacked. i can't win. i was trying to offer up an honest disco/opinion and still got nude pigpiled by mets

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Who has been arguing? i certainly haven't? In case anyone has noticed..I have totally changed the way I've posted on here. When was the last time i posted an AWT or anything like that. Though i've seen mets do it even yetserday.

Scooter has been the only one lately who has been confrontational...Maybe Joe too.

I'm as gentle as can be...and gently correcting your posts.

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About warm fronts/closed lows ending up farther north than progged by models this summer

Well of course we had some fun with that because it wasn't entirely true. But, what did happen is that some of these cooler intrusions of air modeled 2 weeks out modified a bit as we got closer. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that's what you meant...but I wouldn't say it was because it trended north.

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