CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 your climate is just awful Yes, nothing like getting a break from the swamp now and then. Awful...how do we do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 March looks epic on the CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Guess dews over 75 are comfortable when you hide from them all day in AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I see days just like yesterday for Fri- Sunday 80's to low 90's and 75-77 dews. Wed- Fri look like 80-83/ 70 No way low 90s. Not with that flow. Even 80s will struggle if the euro is right with all that rain. Perhaps Sunday verbatim, but it's all about the WF. Friday likely will not be a candidate for temps that warm combined with dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 March looks epic on the CFS Yea for a spring month. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 No way low 90s. Not with that flow. Even 80s will struggle if the euro is right with all that rain. Perhaps Sunday verbatim, but it's all about the WF. Friday likely will not be a candidate for temps that warm combined with dews. Well I'm planning on everything shifting north as has happened every time this summer. I think the warm front ends up where it was this past weekend. Models already starting the north shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 cfs forecast from last aug... too cold even when it was forecasting warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 cfs forecast from last aug... too cold even when it was forecasting warmth Its generally a crappy model. I think it was forecasting a torch before '10-'11 winter also...though to be fair, the ECMWF forecast looked horrendous too before 2010-2011 and it turned out completely wrong obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 cfs forecast from last aug... too cold even when it was forecasting warmth Great Jan call, looks spot on for this year. Turn up your heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Well I'm planning on everything shifting north as has happened every time this summer. I think the warm front ends up where it was this past weekend. Models already starting the north shift Not really. Euro op is actually cooler. Besides, you're missing the point. It has nothing to do how far north it will get. Two things may happen. One, the low occludes and the WF actually hangs up south. Two, once it does move north...it's a tropical rain plume possible with breaks of sun. Doesn't matter how far north the storm is. Saturday aftn or Sunday may feature some breaks, but 90 looks impossible...esp Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Its generally a crappy model. I think it was forecasting a torch before '10-'11 winter also...though to be fair, the ECMWF forecast looked horrendous too before 2010-2011 and it turned out completely wrong obviously. Don S loves it, Forky used the best bad example he could find. The monthly CFS 2 has been dead nuts for a year straight. Embrace the cold this year. Guess if you are looking old and home bound, temps below 30 and yards full of snow suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Well I'm planning on everything shifting north as has happened every time this summer. I think the warm front ends up where it was this past weekend. Models already starting the north shift Yeah...I guess that's how we kept missing out on the brunt of the heat waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 The one thing Kevin likes, is that unlike June..waters are much warmer, so you don't get the marine cooled air like you would even 6 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yeah...I guess that's how we kept missing out on the brunt of the heat waves. That worked out well in the final 2 weeks of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yeah...I guess that's how we kept missing out on the brunt of the heat waves. New North trend application for summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Don S loves it, Forky used the best bad example he could find. The monthly CFS 2 has been dead nuts for a year straight. Embrace the cold this year. Guess if you are looking old and home bound, temps below 30 and yards full of snow suck. CFS has its moments, but its too extreme a model. The newer version is scoring better thus far, but we'll have to reserve judgment on it until we see it for a couple of winters and enso cycles. Bottom line is that all of the LR models have issues...even the most skilled Euro SIPS has had some terrible busts in the recent past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Not really. Euro op is actually cooler. Besides, you're missing the point. It has nothing to do how far north it will get. Two things may happen. One, the low occludes and the WF actually hangs up south. Two, once it does move north...it's a tropical rain plume possible with breaks of sun. Doesn't matter how far north the storm is. Saturday aftn or Sunday may feature some breaks, but 90 looks impossible...esp Saturday. Me thinks the storm occludes and the front stalls to the S of us and finally lifts through with heavy tropical downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yeah...I guess that's how we kept missing out on the brunt of the heat waves. LOL..it's been an above normal humid summer. BDL has like 20+ days over 90..No cool anywehre..Just less hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 it hit 90 here on a stiff SE wind saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 CFS has its moments, but its too extreme a model. The newer version is scoring better thus far, but we'll have to reserve judgment on it until we see it for a couple of winters and enso cycles. Bottom line is that all of the LR models have issues...even the most skilled Euro SIPS has had some terrible busts in the recent past. Just bustin. Have not seen anything close to accurate in August from any source. Such a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 LOL..it's been an above normal humid summer. BDL has like 20+ days over 90..No cool anywehre..Just less hot I didn't say it was a cool summer. Its been a solidly above normal summer. But your idea of everything ending up further north was obviously wrong or we would have been getting that epic heat to our SW all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 87/59 another solid above normal day, just beautiful out here, those departures Bob posted this morning are nuts......I wonder what the new normals will be when my kids are my age. The field goal posts keep getting shuffled, now its only dews of 70 or above that are oppressive, and if its not mid 90s its just seasonal. Climate change is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 it hit 90 here on a stiff SE wind saturday The water temp at NYC harbor is 79, Boston Harbor 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 87/59 another solid above normal day, just beautiful out here, those departures Bob posted this morning are nuts......I wonder what the new normals will be when my kids are my age. The field goal posts keep getting shuffled, now its only dews of 70 or above that are oppressive, and if its not mid 90s its just seasonal. Climate change is here. Yea it was here in the 1930 s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 87/59 another solid above normal day, just beautiful out here, those departures Bob posted this morning are nuts......I wonder what the new normals will be when my kids are my age. The field goal posts keep getting shuffled, now its only dews of 70 or above that are oppressive, and if its not mid 90s its just seasonal. Climate change is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 The water temp at NYC harbor is 79, Boston Harbor 69 EWR runs too warm anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yea it was here in the 1930 s too. Just let them run with it. They're the ones that look foolish. Still waiting on +3 or better for a summer month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Lol. Reading it again, it was a triple bunner for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Just let them run with it. They're the ones that look foolish. Still waiting on +3 or better for a summer month. At what location? BDR was a +3 for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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