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New England Severe weather thread number ...I think XI ?


OSUmetstud

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Yeah I probably wasn't clear. Each index has a physical meaning and can be good proxies for figuring out what's going on. Whether it's instability or moisture content etc. My point was it's important not to get too wrapped up in a million different indicies. Take a step back, look at the pattern, keep looking at models, soundings, etc. CAPE is great... except if you're capped. And if you're capped the sig tor parameter and all those other composite indicies mean squat.

Forecasting convection is difficult, and while indicies can be great proxies, you have to be careful not to be lead astray.

Today was a perfect lesson... CAPE was highest south of the Pike but for several reasons storms were able to hold their own north of the Pike.

Well said. Man it's too bad we couldn't utilize that CAPE. Would have been spectacular cells. At the same time the areas that got hit hard today....I didn't think it looked so meh as the morning AFD described....especially after the Albany 12z sounding. We both mentioned how nice it looked.

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We're going to see some major rain makers tomorrow. Flash flooding should be the main threat tomorrow given how juicy the airmass is. With a very nice LLJ developing and working into the region enhancing llvl convergence along/ahead of the front we'll see lots of convection develop, however, the mid-levels are still looking pretty awful so getting severe or sig severe doesn't seem likely.

Could see some severe tomorrow night across northern New England though as mlvl flow and vertical shear increase as trough/front approaches. Despite loss of heating dynamics could work some fun.

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We're going to see some major rain makers tomorrow. Flash flooding should be the main threat tomorrow given how juicy the airmass is. With a very nice LLJ developing and working into the region enhancing llvl convergence along/ahead of the front we'll see lots of convection develop, however, the mid-levels are still looking pretty awful so getting severe or sig severe doesn't seem likely.

Agreed

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:weenie:

But yeah... it's an intriguing setup lol

I could see lots of cloud debris though on Friday with such a deep southerly flow and lapse rates would be quite poor but maybe dynamics could help generate some sort of line.

If anything though Saturday would probably be the more fun day as that ULL slides over us giving us a cold pool setup.

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school hit by lightning in franklin county...

http://www.wwlp.com/...ightning-strike

Wow. That's part of my daughter's school dsitrcit. Perhaps some of those students will be joining her this year. Last year, they had the kids of Hawlemont (Hawley/Charlemont) for half the year as they recovered from Irene.

Since the 9 towns in the disctrict made for a total of a graduating class of 72 people this year, I think we can take them.

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Wow. That's part of my daughter's school dsitrcit. Perhaps some of those students will be joining her this year. Last year, they had the kids of Hawlemont (Hawley/Charlemont) for half the year as they recovered from Irene.

Since the 9 towns in the disctrict made for a total of a graduating class of 72 people this year, I think we can take them.

9 towns? Holy crap.

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No wx related posts from Scooter always is a sign his area out of threat zone

Eh, I posted about yesterday even when it was out of my area...although I did have to worry about it for aviation purposes....and it worked out well. It looks like western SNE could get some stuff later on, but I don't see anything impressive.

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You think we stay dry most if not all day?

We may see activity develop into Litchfield county and the Berks again after 20Z or so. Models are developing some sct stuff in this area so it is possible we may see some activity there. If I were you, I wouldn't expect much during the day, unless some renegade stuff fires up during the day

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