CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Yeah they really did. Very impressed. Mesoscale models and the globals. It's too bad the mid levels dry out so much near the pike. That seabreeze front remains in place, but TCU were struggling when I left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The 15z SREF mean has substantially bumped up instability tomorrow compared to the meager 9z run. ~1500 j/kg of MLCAPE. Not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 It's too bad the mid levels dry out so much near the pike. That seabreeze front remains in place, but TCU were struggling when I left. Yeah without any shear or surface convergence the storms are quickly becoming downdraft dominant thanks to siggy dry air entrainment.. essentially cutting off updrafts. Dry mid levels is ok when you have a lifting mechanism or something the focus convection but not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 The 15z SREF mean has substantially bumped up instability tomorrow compared to the meager 9z run. ~1500 j/kg of MLCAPE. Not terrible. yeah the new sref looks slightly better...shear improved slightly also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The 15z SREF mean has substantially bumped up instability tomorrow compared to the meager 9z run. ~1500 j/kg of MLCAPE. Not terrible. I think we'll see widespread storms tomorrow, not necessarily here but off to our west. Once the LLJ develops and strengthens that will really help with the llvl convergence. Storms will just really struggle to maintain strength or develop vertically with the awful mlvl shear and poor lapse rates. Stronger instability will obviously work to try and offset this and would probably help to get a little more in the way of severe reports...I would think it would be strong winds, especially if we can get those llvl lapse rates quite steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Yeah without any shear or surface convergence the storms are quickly becoming downdraft dominant thanks to siggy dry air entrainment.. essentially cutting off updrafts. Dry mid levels is ok when you have a lifting mechanism or something the focus convection but not today. Well the seabreeze front on radar just south of BOS was a great mechanism, but I think the mid levels we're just a bit too dry and the best forcing was north. Most of the time, such a front would fire storms but not today. Best KI was north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I think we'll see widespread storms tomorrow, not necessarily here but off to our west. Once the LLJ develops and strengthens that will really help with the llvl convergence. Storms will just really struggle to maintain strength or develop vertically with the awful mlvl shear and poor lapse rates. Stronger instability will obviously work to try and offset this and would probably help to get a little more in the way of severe reports...I would think it would be strong winds, especially if we can get those llvl lapse rates quite steep. I think we'll see a number of storms around here. Soundings are juiced, we have synoptic scale lift, a prefrontal trough and we are unstable. The PWATS would have Andy pee all over his TANDY tomorrow... well over 2". Severe looks meh as we've been talking about (it never really looked good here) but if higher instability than progged develops we'll have to look out given developing LLJ and enlongating/curved hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Well the seabreeze front on radar just south of BOS was a great mechanism, but I think the mid levels we're just a bit too dry and the best forcing was north. Most of the time, such a front would fire storms but not today. Best KI was north too. Yup... agreed. Just didn't really come together today AWT. The area we both outlined this morning worked out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Kind of a neat situation going on around here today with the terrain helping to induce convection. As the southerly flow is parallel to the Greens and Berkshires, this allowed for some valley breeze convergence to take place along the crest, providing the extra lift necessary to get some pretty good rainers going in the Savoy, Florida, Charlemont area. I was watching a succession of cumulus towers grow into cumulonimbus as they moved from south to north just to my east over the crest. There was definitely some training going on to my NE leading to the 6"+ radar estimated rainfall totals. The outflow boundary from all of this convection moved through here from the NE and knocked the temperature down. Some towers have been shooting up around me including a shower down around West Stockbridge that produced a quick clap of thunder about 45 minutes ago. That has since died, but I'm watching to see if anything else fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 That area near Westford getting nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I'm hearing unconfirmed reports of roads washed out in W. Franklin Co. Lightning hit Rowe Elementary school and subsequent fire has destroyed it! http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/08/firefighters_battle_blaze_at_r.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Geez how much rain has fallen near 495 nw of bos. Is this florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here's the updated story: http://www.wwlp.com/dpp/news/local/franklin/school-on-fire-after-lightning-strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I think we'll see a number of storms around here. Soundings are juiced, we have synoptic scale lift, a prefrontal trough and we are unstable. The PWATS would have Andy pee all over his TANDY tomorrow... well over 2". Severe looks meh as we've been talking about (it never really looked good here) but if higher instability than progged develops we'll have to look out given developing LLJ and enlongating/curved hodographs. Tomorrow night could be fun for some. Depending on level of instability in place after dark I could see some dynamically driven convection developing right along the front aided by the nose of the really strong MLJ along with strong forcing associated with the s/w rotating through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Well the seabreeze front on radar just south of BOS was a great mechanism, but I think the mid levels we're just a bit too dry and the best forcing was north. Most of the time, such a front would fire storms but not today. Best KI was north too. Right where the KI had been 34-36 all day is right where the convection got going and organized into a cluster there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Here's the updated story: http://www.wwlp.com/...ightning-strike That sucks. Wow. Barely anything here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Right where the KI had been 34-36 all day is right where the convection got going and organized into a cluster there. KI is one of my favorite indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Several days ago, didn't this thread include a few comments about over-analyzing slight shifts in select convective parameters being modeled? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Tomorrow looks like another awful day for convection in SNE..Possible we come out of this heatwave totally dry. Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 KI is one of my favorite indices. Yeah, it's pretty useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Several days ago, didn't this thread include a few comments about over-analyzing slight shifts in select convective parameters being modeled? lol I don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Awesome sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EVENING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS VERMONT, HOWEVER THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT, WITH HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AREAS THAT ARE HIT REPEATEDLY OR WHERE STORMS BECOME STATIONARY ARE AT RISK OF FLOODING. THE STORMS WILL FORM IN WARM UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE STORMS BY A FEW HOURS, AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY AND EXIT EASTERN VERMONT BY MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Several days ago, didn't this thread include a few comments about over-analyzing slight shifts in select convective parameters being modeled? lol Yeah I probably wasn't clear. Each index has a physical meaning and can be good proxies for figuring out what's going on. Whether it's instability or moisture content etc. My point was it's important not to get too wrapped up in a million different indicies. Take a step back, look at the pattern, keep looking at models, soundings, etc. CAPE is great... except if you're capped. And if you're capped the sig tor parameter and all those other composite indicies mean squat. Forecasting convection is difficult, and while indicies can be great proxies, you have to be careful not to be lead astray. Today was a perfect lesson... CAPE was highest south of the Pike but for several reasons storms were able to hold their own north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Tomorrow looks like another awful day for convection in SNE..Possible we come out of this heatwave totally dry. Ugly LOL you had over 2 inches while you were gone this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Kind of looks like a "meh" day for SVR but hopefully something to track. More likely just some heavy downpours as they lose steam the deeper into New England they get from New York. ...OH NEWD INTO VT... AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT...FROM FAR WRN NY INTO ERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS PA AND NY. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...WITH MOIST PROFILES AND EXPANDING CLOUDINESS. ALSO...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6 C. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT FAVOR ROTATION...BUT WITH WEAK UPDRAFTS...AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE EXPECTED. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES. THE BEST WIND PROFILES WILL BE OVER NRN AND WRN NY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBS THERE FOR MAINLY WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Tomorrow looks like another awful day for convection in SNE..Possible we come out of this heatwave totally dry. Ugly Doesn't look good for severe but it does look good for heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 LOL you had over 2 inches while you were gone this week. No I didn't. I had under 1.65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Doesn't look good for severe but it does look good for heavy rain. Late afternoon? I need time to do a ton of yard work starting like 9-10:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Late afternoon? I need time to do a ton of yard work starting like 9-10:00 May actually start pretty early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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