CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 May have been a tornado touchdown in Guilford yesterday. There's an area not far from my parents that had some pretty substantial and localized wind damage with siding ripped off houses and a path of trees sheared off. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised (though NWS will never know) if the Guilford damage was tornadic and Glastonbury wasn't. Maybe on of those deals where the circulation hits land and frictional convergence tightens it up a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 scott or ryan or anyone , do ML lapse rates get better tommorrow in SNE as the last short wave makes it thru or still crap. box earlier said E SNE may be best spot for precip but was wondering if ML lapse rates improve tommorrow They still look rather crappy to me. Tough to tell about tomorrow. Best LLJ is again closer to the Cape and like this morning..we may see most rain and thunder there...although some models like the euro and SREFs are pretty wet over the area. Might be another weak low moving over the region or the Cape during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Might be a little LLJ surge or something firing cells south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 May have been a tornado touchdown in Guilford yesterday. There's an area not far from my parents that had some pretty substantial and localized wind damage with siding ripped off houses and a path of trees sheared off. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised (though NWS will never know) if the Guilford damage was tornadic and Glastonbury wasn't. Maybe on of those deals where the circulation hits land and frictional convergence tightens it up a bit? Yesterday right after it had weakened some right before Guilford, and Ryan posted he was relieved it suddenly tightened for a few frames. I would bet Ryan is right, that area is exactly where the tightening occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 thanks sir. KTAN dewpoint (75) and PVD the same...actually KHVN takes the cake w/ 76....BDR 75 as well ha PYM and EWB and KCEF (74) but lower in the (upper 60s) from 0rh to FIT , KBED, KLWM just particularly oppressive outside of NE SNE today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Don't think we will be hearing the words dry come out of Phils posts any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Somebody should tell OKX about Guilford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Yesterday right after it had weakened some right before Guilford, and Ryan posted he was relieved it suddenly tightened for a few frames. I would bet Ryan is right, that area is exactly where the tightening occurred. I bet we'll see the NWS confirm a tornado in Glastonbury when in reality Guilford had the touchdown and Glastonbury has straight line winds lol. But yeah I thought the Guilford damage had the best chance of being tornadic. It's possible there was some tighter rotation in South Glastonbury too but at least on radar with the lowest elevation slice at about 4,500 ft AGL we may not have seen it. What did impress me was the damaging wind potential on the east side of the MCV that radar displayed beautifully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Somebody should tell OKX about Guilford I did... they didn't really respond though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Nice disco from ALB..should be a fun aternoon for us FCA IS ENTERING RT ENTR RGN OF 300HPA JET...WITH DIV INCRG TDY. MORNING SOUNDING AND UA ANALYSIS SUG A RATHER ACTIVE AFTN. 700-850HPA LAPSE RATES ON NAM AND GFS 5-7C, SFC CAPE 1000-1500, MU CAPE 2000-3000 J/KG,SPC 1000-2000 AND INCRG. MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN LLVLS...LIKE WE REALLY NEED ANY MORE LLVL MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS UPPER 70S...MORNING ALY SOUNDING 1422 CAPE...FZL 13.8 KFT...WBZ 12.8KFT. CAPE PROFILE "FAT". PWAT IS 1.62, WHILE NOT MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN WET MICRO BURSTS. LOCAL WRF SHOWS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION VERY NICELY WITH CELLS ORGANIZING INTO A MULTICELLULAR LINE ALONG FNT 17UTC...AND BCMG NUMEROUS AS THEY TRACK NE INTO A BKN LINE. LOCAL WRF HAS HANDLED MOST OF PAST SVRL EVENTS QUITE WELL IN TERMS OF TIMING AND CONVECTIVE MODE CURRENT RADAR HAS SCT CELLS FORMING ALREADY IN ULSTER CO. SPC HAS AREA IN SEE TEST. SO THE CONVECTIVE GUN IS LOCKED AND LOADED...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING WILL WE GET TO PULL THE TRIGGER. IF IT TRIGGERS AM EXPECTING AN ACTIVE AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Mid level winds do increase a bit this aftn so those western cells may need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Mid level winds do increase a bit this aftn so those western cells may need to be watched. Yeah shear is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I did... they didn't really respond though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Dew of 74 here. Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 That BID supercell is nuts. I bet that thing dropped a waterspout and maybe came onshore as a TOR too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 That BID supercell is nuts. I bet that thing dropped a waterspout and maybe came onshore as a TOR too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Holy crap I didnt realize it got that tight for a minute...that's not bad at all. To o bad it sounds like no survey will be done which is kind of ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Funny how the two best cells this summer (in terms of rotation) occurred over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Holy crap I didnt realize it got that tight for a minute...that's not bad at all. To o bad it sounds like no survey will be done which is kind of ridiculous. Surveys for EF0s are sort of a waste of time imo. I don't blame them for not wanting to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Surveys for EF0s are sort of a waste of time imo. I don't blame them for not wanting to come. I thought for climo records and possible future reports it'd just be good to have but I spose you've got a point Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I thought for climo records and possible future reports it'd just be good to have but I spose you've got a point Haha. Yeah it would be nice but we have lots of things that go unsurveyed around here... a big part of it is our distance from NWS offices. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Well even an EF0 is still a tornado..would think for climo purposes it's a good idea, especially in a region that does not get them often. I know it's a PITA to get to that area from LI. Anyways, some of those cells in SE NY are kind of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Should see a slight risk upgrade with the late morning package THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NY STATE BETWEEN ALBANY AND NEW YORK CITY AND OVER LONG ISLAND. VIEWING THE MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC...HAVE VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH LI`S OF -5 ALREADY IN CT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN SOUTHERN CT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEITHER WEAK NOR STRONG. THE MAIN TWO FEATURES HOWEVER ARE THAT THE BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND THAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-55 KT THERE WITH 40-45 KT SPREADING INTO WESTERN MA/WESTERN CT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. IF ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH OR PERHAPS INTO THE SEVERE RANGE OF 58+ MPH. AGAIN... THIS IS MAINLY A THREAT FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH...1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES... WHICH MEANS THAT ANY STORMS COULD...LIKE YESTERDAY...PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN AREAS BUT INCREASE THEM TO LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 There's some Tip CU specials out there now..Big fat cauliflower ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 One interesting thing about the landphoon yesterday..there was no lightning and thunder with it. There was def lightning with the earlier cells and the ones to the east over SE Mass...but it was all mostly just hvy rain.around the core and out from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 How anyone cannot be on Twitter today just blows my mind..I talk to people and they have no clue what kind of info they can get or even what it is..They think it's just status updates..Social media is where it's at Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan Showers and thunderstorms popping up across the state. Some severe weather is possible today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 78.1/76 ..I mean if that's not perfect I don't know what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 One interesting thing about the landphoon yesterday..there was no lightning and thunder with it. There was def lightning with the earlier cells and the ones to the east over SE Mass...but it was all mostly just hvy rain.around the core and out from it Yeah the convection was all low topped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 How anyone cannot be on Twitter today just blows my mind..I talk to people and they have no clue what kind of info they can get or even what it is..They think it's just status updates..Social media is where it's at Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan Showers and thunderstorms popping up across the state. Some severe weather is possible today I'm on it, but I don't have the big pants tent that some do. I suppose this board is my version of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 One interesting thing about the landphoon yesterday..there was no lightning and thunder with it. There was def lightning with the earlier cells and the ones to the east over SE Mass...but it was all mostly just hvy rain.around the core and out from it Probably the warm core type stuff too..again..almost a tropical like feature. Also, I don't think we had the strong updrafts that we had in earlier convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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