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New England Severe weather thread number ...I think XI ?


OSUmetstud

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seems like some destructive interference at the last minute may spare the campus from anything too significant. Developments to the south may have cut us off. I'm actually not mad because it's raining so hard (1.59"/hr on the Davis) that we couldn't really see a thing anyway, and there's a bunch of campers in a field here.

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Hopefully just to clear the field for lightning, although if that's the case it probably should've happened good 10 minutes+ beforehand.

Follow up...

There's a multi-day organic farmers conference ongoing with a whole bunch of tents set up. Probably like a mini Woodstock out there. They wanted people to take cover at the height of it and were having trouble getting the message out so they blew the siren.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0103 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101803Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN

INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS A BIT

MARGINAL...BUT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...A DISTINCT CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED

40-50 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY

FLOW EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CYCLONE...CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AREA AT AROUND 25-30 KT. A CLUSTER OF

VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...SUPPORTED BY LIFT OF

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN

EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS ABOVE 70/ WHICH EXTENDS IN A

CORRIDOR NEAR...BUT SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF ATLANTIC

COASTAL AREAS.

AS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATES TOWARD EASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS/THE CAPE COD AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 21-22Z...THE

CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...HEAVY RAINFALL

APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH

SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE

QUESTION. THIS THREAT LARGELY HINGES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE

SOUTHERLY LEVEL-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED NEAR SURFACE VERTICAL

SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY APPEAR SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT

MODEST STRENGTHENING AT WINDS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF

RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/10/2012

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 41527273 42157222 42457148 42007015 41607011 40737291

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