andyhb Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 That tornado warned cell in Indiana today which produced 2.75" hail I believe was in a CAPE environment of around 1500J/KG...and yeah for an actual tornado, we'd probably need more, but not that much more. And yeah We live in the northeast. But at least some good parameters are near each other! Yeah maybe for you guys here, although the Henryville EF4 tornado on March 2nd was probably in somewhere in the vicinity of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE (although the shear was off the charts so that comparison is likely skewed to a degree). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Yeah maybe for you guys here, although the Henryville EF4 tornado on March 2nd was probably in somewhere in the vicinity of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE (although the shear was off the charts so that comparison is likely skewed to a degree). More than likely, and more than a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I mentioned it earlier in the Mid Atlantic forum but I think there could be a weird morning-midday threat for NJ. The only thing keeping me from getting excited about it is the weak wind fields; but, everything else is favorable. I think the GFS is trying to bring this back. Nice 700mb "jet streak" just to our west at 15z, and not a terrible sounding in C NJ, either. Would like to see a little more low-level turning, but it's not terrible. I should probably actually make posts in the NYC forum. But I enjoy the discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 This isn't terrible. And decent values get into CT at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 slight risk once again not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Slight Risk for today, well i think they will expand the tornado risk, and also they need to put the risk further west, and south, where the low goes, will take into East OH and Western PA, and into Ontario, so storms will fire in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Well if we can get some breaks of sun today and get those Cape values AOB 1500 J/KG there could certainly be a few interesting storms later this afternoon. mid-level lapse rates will likely preclude this from being a much more widespread event, however, an increasing mlvl flow along with rich llvl moisture could work to offset those weaker lapse rates some and allow for the potential of a few isolated severe storms. Can't rule out an isolated tornado either somewhere, especially if we get higher instability values to develop,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Slight Risk for today, well i think they will expand the tornado risk, and also they need to put the risk further west, and south, where the low goes, will take into East OH and Western PA, and into Ontario, so storms will fire in that area Therussellweatherman, why do you feel the need to go into just about every subforum, and hype your backyard? Especially after just recently getting banned. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Therussellweatherman, why do you feel the need to go into just about every subforum, and hype your backyard? Especially after just recently getting banned. Just curious. That's who this dude is I'll never forget his video from May 31st, 2008 about those ''supercells'' in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 That's who this dude is I'll never forget his video from May 31st, 2008 about those ''supercells'' in PA LOL Yup, he's on his third or fourth name since Eastern, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Today could be decent in wrn areas if we can get some sun. Tomrorow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 LOL Yup, he's on his third or fourth name since Eastern, I think. There's actually a good deal of blue sky here, hopefully we can keep that going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Today could be decent in wrn areas if we can get some sun. Tomrorow as well. Too bad those steeper mid-level lapse rates are moving out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 3z SREF probs actually looked pretty decent today. Scott, can you post the link to the 0z WRF? On mobile and don't have the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 3z SREF probs actually looked pretty decent today. Scott, can you post the link to the 0z WRF? On mobile and don't have the link. It didn't update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 There's actually a good deal of blue sky here, hopefully we can keep that going Cells are already quickly firing in E PA, moving north. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It didn't update. Damn. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Cells are already quickly firing in E PA, moving north. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing. Well I guess that shows the atmosphere is juiced at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 This front will stall and bring the chance of shwrs/tstms into Sunday for ern areas..especially the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Just got back from getting the golf cart and it's come rely cloudy out now :thumbs down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Wow...it's quite unstable out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sun is out..plenty of blue..let's see if we can spin up a few tor's and damaging gusts today. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sun is out..plenty of blue..let's see if we can spin up a few tor's and damaging gusts today. Looks good I'm impressed with SBcapes and MLcapes along with LI values this early...MLcapes and Ncapes may lower though once mlvl lapse rates weaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sun is out..plenty of blue..let's see if we can spin up a few tor's and damaging gusts today. Looks good Clouds moving in, but solar heating isn't really going to be a big factor...at least imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Clouds moving in, but solar heating isn't really going to be a big factor...at least imo. Next 2 days look fun for poss severe. Might see an upgrade withe the morning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Next 2 days look fun for poss severe. Might see an upgrade withe the morning update Well like we were saying...mid level winds looked good...but just need the solar heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 This could be very dangerous LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BACK EAST OF THE SFC LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A CONDITIONALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST IN THIS AREA WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Next 2 days look fun for poss severe. Might see an upgrade withe the morning update I could see 30% wind probs if it becomes more clear there will be an area of stronger instability and where this area of stronger instability will be. Maybe 5% TOR probs too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Well like we were saying...mid level winds looked good...but just need the solar heating. I like areas of differential heating for something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I could see 30% wind probs if it becomes more clear there will be an area of stronger instability and where this area of stronger instability will be. Maybe 5% TOR probs too? I think the threat if anything would be winds because I don't see a ton of directional shear. Best directional shear is actually north. But LCLs are low and might be a bit more of a threat if we get sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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