weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 For a minute i thought everyone was talking about this coming Saturday..not something 10 days away Thursday through Saturday is not for any appreciable severe. Maybe some isolated severe but heavy rains/flash flooding is the main threat these next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 While not exciting by any means, I'd watch Saturday for a few strong segments if we can get some sun. GFS is still sort of unstable with decent mid level winds coming in. It's actually real quick with the fropa too. Basically, it doesn't look great...but depending on sun and front position..could spark up a few strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 While not exciting by any means, I'd watch Saturday for a few strong segments if we can get some sun. GFS is still sort of unstable with decent mid level winds coming in. It's actually real quick with the fropa too. Basically, it doesn't look great...but depending on sun and front position..could spark up a few strong storms. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Meh Probably will be for most, but I could see a couple of decent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 While not exciting by any means, I'd watch Saturday for a few strong segments if we can get some sun. GFS is still sort of unstable with decent mid level winds coming in. It's actually real quick with the fropa too. Basically, it doesn't look great...but depending on sun and front position..could spark up a few strong storms. Saturday seems like a good setup for a potential forced line right along the cold front. With this being the potential for a forced line instability wouldn't be as important for generating the convection, however, if we want to see some embedded strong to severe convection we'll certainly need to see some sunlight. I'm just not sure how much sun we will see...the flow throughout the entire column is either southerly or southwesterly and the column is quite saturated. There is pretty much no CIN and with good lift/forcing around we'll be generating clouds/precip quite easily. Lapse rates are also pretty awful. The instability we develop is mainly going to be due to the fact that dewpoints at the surface will be into the lower 70's and the Cape profile is going to be rather shallow. What is interesting, however, is the fact there is good directional shear in the 0-2km level with good speed shear here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Still think some folks see some nice storms tomorrow arond interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I normally lurk in the mid atlantic thread...weather enthusiast but limited knowledge of how it all comes together. I rarely post but I am from NW RI originally and we will be having our annual clamboil on sat....lots of people, all outdoors. I don't think severe will be an issue but am worried about rain...and not just misting. Anyone w more knowledge than I willing to comment on if we should have a plan B? Sunday? Too soon to tell? No more than light rain? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I normally lurk in the mid atlantic thread...weather enthusiast but limited knowledge of how it all comes together. I rarely post but I am from NW RI originally and we will be having our annual clamboil on sat....lots of people, all outdoors. I don't think severe will be an issue but am worried about rain...and not just misting. Anyone w more knowledge than I willing to comment on if we should have a plan B? Sunday? Too soon to tell? No more than light rain? Thank you If there would be any way that you could move your plans to Sunday without being any sort of issue I would go ahead and do that. Doing this at least you won't have to worry about any rain or t'storms and the weather should be much nicer as well as drier and much more pleasant. I know for myself at work Friday we are doing a "carnival" for the activity so we have tons of games and activities planned for outside, as well as a bounce house and I'm real worried about rain and perhaps t'storms. I'm actually SHOCKED my director hasn't bombarded me with questions about the weather for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I normally lurk in the mid atlantic thread...weather enthusiast but limited knowledge of how it all comes together. I rarely post but I am from NW RI originally and we will be having our annual clamboil on sat....lots of people, all outdoors. I don't think severe will be an issue but am worried about rain...and not just misting. Anyone w more knowledge than I willing to comment on if we should have a plan B? Sunday? Too soon to tell? No more than light rain? Thank you Any true weenie will be looking at radar and discussions for Sat. (and tomorrow). My take is there's no serious excitement/chat/discussion, because the setup is run-of-the-mill. There could be a couple good storms, but they will be localized. There's no "holy sh** look at this setup". But it could rain. Sunday looks like a good day for an outdoor party, Saturday could be iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Friday would have some pretty interesting potential if we had a stronger mid-level flow in place (boy doesn't that sound familiar!). Regardless though at least parts of PA/NY could have an elevated risk for severe weather with a threat for tornadoes and the SPC SREF actually is honking it's horn at this. This is a setup that actually could even favor SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I still think Saturday offers the chance of a few strong storms around. Today is more for Berks and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I still think Saturday offers the chance of a few strong storms around. Today is more for Berks and NNE. Scott--maybe I'm just wishcasting since I'm having company on Saturday. But, it looks to me as if conditions may improve in GC as Saturday goes along. Not expecting sun, mind you, but I think the heavier showers will come through Friday night through Saturday morning (just in time for my race) with the afternoon not that bad, though no sun. What say you for GC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Scott--maybe I'm just wishcasting since I'm having company on Saturday. But, it looks to me as if conditions may improve in GC as Saturday goes along. Not expecting sun, mind you, but I think the heavier showers will come through Friday night through Saturday morning (just in time for my race) with the afternoon not that bad, though no sun. What say you for GC? Eh, I think you run the risk all day to be honest. I see some signs that the trough sharpens up and the cold front slows down. That doesn't mean you won't see some breaks of sun...you just might, but I think the risk of shwrs/tstms is quite prevalent for now. I don't see a wash out for now...but I think the front still stays west of you until the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Eh, I think you run the risk all day to be honest. I see some signs that the trough sharpens up and the cold front slows down. That doesn't mean you won't see some breaks of sun...you just might, but I think the risk of shwrs/tstms is quite prevalent for now. I don't see a wash out for now...but I think the front still stays west of you until the evening. Thanks, Scott. I take hope in your comment about not seeing a wash out. Of course, you caveat that with a "for now". I'll keep my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Thanks, Scott. I take hope in your comment about not seeing a wash out. Of course, you caveat that with a "for now". I'll keep my fingers crossed. The atmosphere will be juiced so the expression "when it rains...it pours" will apply..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Eh, I think you run the risk all day to be honest. I see some signs that the trough sharpens up and the cold front slows down. That doesn't mean you won't see some breaks of sun...you just might, but I think the risk of shwrs/tstms is quite prevalent for now. I don't see a wash out for now...but I think the front still stays west of you until the evening. What do you see for tomorrow? With the warm front in the area and increasing moisture I could see periods of rain on and off for much of the afternoon with the only breaks occurring to our south and west where the better severe threat lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 What do you see for tomorrow? With the warm front in the area and increasing moisture I could see periods of rain on and off for much of the afternoon with the only breaks occurring to our south and west where the better severe threat lies. I don't really see much from the CT river on east. I think it will be more across ern NY state into the Berks and NNE again. I suppose some stuff may develop to our south as the WF approaches and rain with a few tstms develop late day? Otherwise it's probably mostly cloudy with better weather maybe in eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I don't really see much from the CT river on east. I think it will be more across ern NY state into the Berks and NNE again. I suppose some stuff may develop to our south as the WF approaches and rain with a few tstms develop late day? Otherwise it's probably mostly cloudy with better weather maybe in eastern SNE. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 This afternoon and evening look fun for those west of 495 and nw of 95.Could be a loud evening/overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 This afternoon and evening look fun for those west of 495 and nw of 95.Could be a loud evening/overnight I think it's more like north of I-90 and west of 495. Really looks like NBD for most today aside from Berks and maybe srn VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I think it's more like north of I-90 and west of 495. Really looks like NBD for most today aside from Berks and maybe srn VT and NH. Initially i think it's there..but late afternoon the action shifts east..WRF looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Initially i think it's there..but late afternoon the action shifts east..WRF looks decent Possibly, I wouldn't be shocked if you got something...I just don't think it's all that likely. Better chance for ChrisM to be a weenie again out in NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Possibly, I wouldn't be shocked if you got something...I just don't think it's all that likely. Better chance for ChrisM to be a weenie again out in NW CT. Yeah I think he def sees something..Looks active all the way into the middle of next week..hopefully a few severe days tomorrow/Sat and then again next Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 GFS slows the front down into Sunday which I can buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Any milddowns or warmdowns over the next 2 weeks on Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Any milddowns or warmdowns over the next 2 weeks on Euro ens? No big heat dome either. Aside from maybe a few days of upper 80s to near 90...I don't see big heat at all. Again, looks like rain chances over the east as the trough remains with times of swampy air...but also maybe onshore flow like we've seen. August pretty much going as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 No big heat dome either. Aside from maybe a few days of upper 80s to near 90...I don't see big heat at all. Again, looks like rain chances over the east as the trough remains with times of swampy air...but also maybe onshore flow like we've seen. August pretty much going as planned. Well when have we had onshore flow? Onshore flow to me means cool, fog, and misery. We haven't had any of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Well when have we had onshore flow? Onshore flow to me means cool, fog, and misery. We haven't had any of that That's not true this time of year. It may mean times like tomorrow or into Saturday where fronts stall and waves try to move up the coast. Next week is one of them. So while it may be humid at times, temps for the most part won't be ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Southerly flow is onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Possibly, I wouldn't be shocked if you got something...I just don't think it's all that likely. Better chance for ChrisM to be a weenie again out in NW CT. I have never weenied out even once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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