CT Rain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Miller B? F4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yup this screams tornado. This storm reminds me of a late winter or early spring time storm, if your near the low center, that would be Illinois and Indiana, Thursday, on Friday, Western PA/East OH, and Saturday across New England into Mid Atlantic Coast, will have an enhanced risk of tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Haven't looked at much but though it looks wet and stormy I'm pretty meh on any svr potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Just home from work after a VERY long day...between Thurs-Sat we can't rule out some isolated severe weather, however, given the look at 500mb I see more in the way of periods of heavy rain with embedded thunder. Pretty deep trough setting up to our west with an increasing southerly/southwesterly flow throughout the troposphere along with multiple sources of lift and increasing moisture/theta-e scream heavy rain. In fact, it appears on Friday that the entire system closes off briefly which would cause the northward progression of the warm front to come to a screaming halt to our south placing the best isentropic lift from NYC on north. Could see some sort of MCS late Thursday night/Friday AM and perhaps several low-topped forced lines perhaps? Anyways though I think Thursday/Friday could be not necessarily washouts but fairly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Yup this screams tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 This storm reminds me of a late winter or early spring time storm, if your near the low center, that would be Illinois and Indiana, Thursday, on Friday, Western PA/East OH, and Saturday across New England into Mid Atlantic Coast, will have an enhanced risk of tornadoes ??? Not seeing the tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 ??? Not seeing the tornado threat. Well it's a possibility, according to the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 ERN NY state and western MA looks to have the best shot of tstms tomorrow, but some may move east by late aftn/early evening. Too bad the wind fields are a little disjointed, because Saturday could be unstable in SW CT. Mid level winds do increase there so perhaps a threat for a few strong gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Tomorrow still looks good for scattered severe in all of SNE. Saturday looking better for those south of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Tomorrow still looks good for scattered severe in all of SNE. Saturday looking better for those south of pike Tomrorow looks like the typical threats with tstms. I don't really see much severe, but could be some stronger storms and FFW possibly, especially west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 While I'm still pretty meh on the details... Saturday certainly has an interesting synoptic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 While I'm still pretty meh on the details... Saturday certainly has an interesting synoptic look. I still think there is the opportunity for maybe strong winds in CT...like western CT. GFS was kind of unstable there. It's too bad the LLJ sucks, but mid level winds increase very late day. Kind fo weird to see two mid level jets so close to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Still thi k we're dealing with the potential for flash flooding the next few days moreso than severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 While I'm still pretty meh on the details... Saturday certainly has an interesting synoptic look. Why no disco on tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Why no disco on tomorrow? Because it's NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Why no disco on tomorrow? it looks boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 it looks boring No storms for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 If Friday had better speeds modeled, it would be a good setup for isolated tornadoes down here in NJ. I like the profiles but the wind speeds are just down right crappy. The curse of the disjointed upper low! Saturday I don't like down this way, timing wise, but maybe you guys can get lucky. There certainly is better wind aloft Saturday in the mid levels but it may support more of a heavy rain thing than supercells. E NY / W MA/ W CT I suppose could develop enough buoyancy to take advantage of the MLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 If Friday had better speeds modeled, it would be a good setup for isolated tornadoes down here in NJ. I like the profiles but the wind speeds are just down right crappy. The curse of the disjointed upper low! Saturday I don't like down this way, timing wise, but maybe you guys can get lucky. There certainly is better wind aloft Saturday in the mid levels but it may support more of a heavy rain thing than supercells. E NY / W MA/ W CT I suppose could develop enough buoyancy to take advantage of the MLJ. Yeah it's possible but not very likely. We'll see. It has an interesting look now we just need to get some instability lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Yeah it's possible but not very likely. We'll see. It has an interesting look now we just need to get some instability lol. Let's fast forward to next weekend which has potential for an EML advection. I am not confident on any EML advection but the pattern is definitely there for one to come along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Let's fast forward to next weekend which has potential for an EML advection. I am not confident on any EML advection but the pattern is definitely there for one to come along. The operational Euro has been sending occasional Sonoran-type heat release events, but can't seem to maintain it consistently. The 12z yesterday compared to the 00z for today nicely illustrates this contention intra-modeled. The 00z brings torridity like no one's business from the southern Lakes to the MA (possibly up this way) from D7.5- ~ 10, while contrasting, the 12z does a typical operational Euro bias (for those ranges) of taking a rather innocuous D6 Manitoba mid/U/A feature and carving out a monster trough (likely way over done) into the eastern Lake and OV regions come D8 or so, deriving kinematics for doings seemingly out of no where. That is an off and on again bias in the operational Euro that I have noted since January of earlier this year for that matter (different discussion). The truth may in fact lay somewhere in between. Looking to the other guidance types and the support of either extreme is not really there, "perhaps" offering some confidence toward a muted solution - go figure: always smooth extremes in the extended. Duh. The Teleconnectors are not really that useful at the CPC these days as their initialization algorithms appear fubar, and have been for days; so there isn't really any way to be certain they're feeding their EOFs properly. The CDC (less useful in summer imo, because they use lower tropospheric wind flux/anomalies, which come along with increased stochastic character in the weaker gradient times of mid heat season), does show a longer range (like 2 weeks) tendency for the PNA to come to neutral, while the NAO lifts equally. Eh, some signal in there... Let's get the subtropical ridge tendencies + over on this side of the Hemisphere so one of these CV cyclones can long track. Interestingly the the GFS keeps pegging the current, albeit very impressive TW that is located some 1000 clicks over African transit still, as a fast moving long track TC. A cursory eval of the oper. UKMET and Euro from overnight does show they too have some entity in transit. I find this interesting that Africa is sending these healthy zygotes... The MJO and other tools developed for determining pan-probabilities are all kind of muting the Atlantic Basin for the next 20 or so days, yet these healthy waves trundling along. Maybe it's a matter of poor timing, and if the U/A velocity potentials were reversed we'd have multi-concern issues going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 The operational Euro has been sending occasional Sonoran-type heat release events, but can't seem to maintain it consistently. The 12z yesterday compared to the 00z for today nicely illustrates this contention intra-modeled. The 00z brings torridity like no one's business from the southern Lakes to the MA (possibly up this way) from D7.5- ~ 10, while contrasting, the 12z does a typical operational Euro bias (for those ranges) of taking a rather innocuous D6 Manitoba mid/U/A feature and carving out a monster trough (likely way over done) into the eastern Lake and OV regions come D8 or so, deriving kinematics for doings seemingly out of no where. That is an off and on again bias in the operational Euro that I have noted since January of earlier this year for that matter (different discussion). The truth may in fact lay somewhere in between. Looking to the other guidance types and the support of either extreme is not really there, "perhaps" offering some confidence toward a muted solution - go figure: always smooth extremes in the extended. Duh. The Teleconnectors are not really that useful at the CPC these days as their initialization algorithms appear fubar, and have been for days; so there isn't really any way to be certain they're feeding their EOFs properly. The CDC (less useful in summer imo, because they use lower tropospheric wind flux/anomalies, which come along with increased stochastic character in the weaker gradient times of mid heat season), does show a longer range (like 2 weeks) tendency for the PNA to come to neutral, while the NAO lifts equally. Eh, some signal in there... Let's get the subtropical ridge tendencies + over on this side of the Hemisphere so one of these CV cyclones can long track. Interestingly the the GFS keeps pegging the current, albeit very impressive TW that is located some 1000 clicks over African transit still, as a fast moving long track TC. A cursory eval of the oper. UKMET and Euro from overnight does show they too have some entity in transit. I find this interesting that Africa is sending these healthy zygotes... The MJO and other tools developed for determining pan-probabilities are all kind of muting the Atlantic Basin for the next 20 or so days, yet these healthy waves trundling along. Maybe it's a matter of poor timing, and if the U/A velocity potentials were reversed we'd have multi-concern issues going on. So are you saying you agree that late next week/weekend is threatening? I sure do think it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 So are you saying you agree that late next week/weekend is threatening? I sure do think it is... First real cool airmass overt the GL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 So are you saying you agree that late next week/weekend is threatening? I sure do think it is... LOL, succinct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 LOL, succinct The discussion is warranted and has to do with the philosophy in interpretation, dude - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 So are you saying you agree that late next week/weekend is threatening? I sure do think it is... 12z Euro says game on... Again, what that discourse was attempting to elucidate is that it's a lower confidence scenario - which of course does not mean "0" chance, either. Couple a pretty hot days there as a side story. Real hot actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I certainly agree with next weekends potential. Looks like we'll have a developing s/w trough developing in southern Canada just north of the upper Mid-west region working through the upper Mid-west and Great Lakes...the orientation of the trough is also more NW to SE as opposed as due north to south (like this weekend) and heavily digging. The placement of the west-coast ridge also favors westerly flow aloft and would certainly allow for EML advection at least into the upper Mid-west and perhaps the Northeast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 12z Euro says game on... Again, what that discourse was attempting to elucidate is that it's a lower confidence scenario - which of course does not mean "0" chance, either. Couple a pretty hot days there as a side story. Real hot actually. I like the building consensus among the NWP for this rather stormy scenario next weekend for sure. The thing that kept me at ease about the OP ECM the last few days was the ensembles suggesting that it was a more likely possibility (but tempered as you suggested). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I agree that the general threat is there. I will also say that the ensemble members are completely all over the place with regards to the journey and strength of that trough initially dropping into the Rockies at the beginning of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 For a minute i thought everyone was talking about this coming Saturday..not something 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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