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New England Severe weather thread number ...I think XI ?


OSUmetstud

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Gotcha. It is always startling that misconceptions like these even start up at all.

Marketing spin...

But one could argue that for those downstream of a tornado on the ground the lead-time would improve as a result of the additional confidence the forecaster has that one is actually occurring/has occurred. "History of producing" is often cited in warnings.

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Marketing spin...

But one could argue that for those downstream of a tornado on the ground the lead-time would improve as a result of the additional confidence the forecaster has that one is actually occurring/has occurred. "History of producing" is often cited in warnings.

Exactly. SVS updates are about the only "forecasting" applications for the TDS. And that downstream lead time/confirmation is certainly a powerful application.

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At least the low is closing off and still deepening relatively far east. A closed low that's ejecting east and opening up is always a disappointment. We will have to watch this situation even in SNE. 75+ SSTs is a plus this time of year compared to a spring ULL situation.

That's more or less what I had in mind when I meant interesting. You're gonna have low LCLs and if the WF gets far enough north, possibly low to mid 70s TDs. Not to mention shear. Besides...nobody should expect a lock for something severe...we're just talking about some aspects of this event. This may be more of a Delmarva and NJ deal.

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They were mostly "ugh, why can't we get a 15% out here". :P

LOL. Do you plan to go to tornado alley each year? If we can rapidly switch to La Nina again after this winter, it would certainly bring you better luck.

That's more or less what I had in mind when I meant interesting. You're gonna have low LCLs and if the WF gets far enough north, possibly low to mid 70s TDs. Not to mention shear. Besides...nobody should expect a lock for something severe...we're just talking about some aspects of this event. This may be more of a Delmarva and NJ deal.

Can't wait for a PHL south tornado watch that barely produces while I'm struggling to destabilize. :P

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LOL. Do you plan to go to tornado alley each year? If we can rapidly switch to La Nina again after this winter, it would certainly bring you better luck.

Can't wait for a PHL south tornado watch that barely produces while I'm struggling to destabilize. :P

GFS was a little unstable here on Saturday. Obviously, put that in the FWIW category when it's only Monday.

Some other closed low scenarios produced a few tors. Notably this one.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us0724.php

This isn't quite a peer reviewed paper, but it gets into some of the specifics.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/uwaosjournal/Volume9/AOS453/Hunter_Straus.pdf

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LOL. Do you plan to go to tornado alley each year? If we can rapidly switch to La Nina again after this winter, it would certainly bring you better luck.

I'd like to but it'll depend on work etc. Right now I have a job with lots of leave.. not sure that'll always be the case. Next yr might be up in the air for now. May also try a spot chase (fly out and back over a few days just to chase one setup). Some post el nino yrs have been great lately.. 03 and 10 in particular.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

1239 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...DOWNBURST WINDS DETERMINED AS CAUSE OF DAMAGE NEAR SIDNEY...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM HAS PRELIMINARILY

DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE TRACK CAUSED BY A STORM MOVING THROUGH

THE SIDNEY NY AREA ON SUNDAY WAS A RESULT OF DOWNBURST WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN UP TO 85 MPH.

ALTHOUGH PHOTOGRAPHS...AND VIDEO IMAGERY TAKEN DURING THE TIME OF

THE STORM YESTERDAY INDICATED A LOWERING OF THE STORM CLOUD AND

SOME ROTATION...THE DAMAGE ON THE GROUND WAS ONLY CONSISTENT WITH

THAT OF STRAIGHT LINE DOWNBURST WINDS.

THE TEAM CONTINUES TO SURVEY LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF SIDNEY AT

THIS TIME...AND WILL HAVE A DETAILED REPORT LATER TODAY.

Umm... :huh:

I really am surprised by this.

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Jeez you wouldn't have guessed based on that video. Is it possible for the thing to have maybe briefly touched down and perhaps the stronger part of the tornado caused the damage? Not all tornadoes have equal winds on opposite sides. Interesting.

A quick moving tornado can often "drag" debris all in a similar direction as well.

I'm surprised, baffled really. Somebody clearly looked at the data and agreed with the tornado reports and tagged it with the volume scan time and location based off the TDS.

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A quick moving tornado can often "drag" debris all in a similar direction as well.

I'm surprised, baffled really. Somebody clearly looked at the data and agreed with the tornado reports and tagged it with the volume scan time and location based off the TDS.

Yeah true. Can the NWS based on the volume scan and that video still claim it may have been a possible tornado despite the damage pattern?

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Yeah true. Can the NWS based on the volume scan and that video still claim it may have been a possible tornado despite the damage pattern?

They certainly can, but it appears that they've made their decision based on that PNS.

They can be confirmed based off phone calls to EMs even. That video just seems so compelling to me, coupled with the radar data.

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Thursday could be a decent tstm day.

Yeah Thursday doesn't look all too bad. Looks like we'll at least have some weak height falls occurring between 18z-3z along with some slight cooling aloft. NAM does have moderate instability in place (although at this stage that doesn't mean much but certainly notable). While shear isn't overly impressive there is speed shear present, especially in the 600-300mb layer and the NAM does have some weak sfc waves moving through along a boundary...something to watch for increased llvl shear and veering winds. Mainly unidirectional flow though suggests we could probably see a few line segments and inverted-v profiles with good moisture present just above this feature right up to around 700mb along with some pretty steep llvl lapse rates...all of this would suggest a good wind threat.

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Despite the shaky video, you can easily see the rotation in the clouds as well as what looks like dust/debris being lofted near the ground.

Quite a stark difference from that "funnel" reported a week or so ago on the North Shore.

Looks like incidental rotation not really associated with an updraft

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I'm not sure how Thursday works out with a developing low to the south. They'll be some storms around, but not sure about lots of severe.

I like the looks of Thursday with decent shear,high dews and decent Cape..Biggest threat should be wind gusts.

Looks like even tomorrow there will be storms scattered about interior

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I like the looks of Thursday with decent shear,high dews and decent Cape..Biggest threat should be wind gusts.

Looks like even tomorrow there will be storms scattered about interior

Models are all over the place. GFS has little shear while the NAM as lots, especially north of I-90. I they'll be some storms, just not sure how widespread yet. CAPE probably will be decent.

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Either way.. a return to last weekends's wx looks imminent for 3-5 days

The combo of heat and temps? No way...not even close. Even those dews may be modified with E-SE winds, especially away from the south coast. Maybe later Saturday and part of Sunday will feature the most humid weather.

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We'll agree to disagree. i think all of us have 70+ dews Thurs- Sun straight

That's different, but that is not last weekend when we had 91/74. I don't think all of us see those dews straight...especially near here and north. It just depends on where the WF is, but who really cares. It still will be muggy and probably rainy which will hold temps down.

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