Ian Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Well even if you are away chasing in tornado alley, we still welcome your thoughts for the Mid Atlantic. They were mostly "ugh, why can't we get a 15% out here". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Gotcha. It is always startling that misconceptions like these even start up at all. Marketing spin... But one could argue that for those downstream of a tornado on the ground the lead-time would improve as a result of the additional confidence the forecaster has that one is actually occurring/has occurred. "History of producing" is often cited in warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Marketing spin... But one could argue that for those downstream of a tornado on the ground the lead-time would improve as a result of the additional confidence the forecaster has that one is actually occurring/has occurred. "History of producing" is often cited in warnings. Exactly. SVS updates are about the only "forecasting" applications for the TDS. And that downstream lead time/confirmation is certainly a powerful application. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 At least the low is closing off and still deepening relatively far east. A closed low that's ejecting east and opening up is always a disappointment. We will have to watch this situation even in SNE. 75+ SSTs is a plus this time of year compared to a spring ULL situation. That's more or less what I had in mind when I meant interesting. You're gonna have low LCLs and if the WF gets far enough north, possibly low to mid 70s TDs. Not to mention shear. Besides...nobody should expect a lock for something severe...we're just talking about some aspects of this event. This may be more of a Delmarva and NJ deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 They were mostly "ugh, why can't we get a 15% out here". LOL. Do you plan to go to tornado alley each year? If we can rapidly switch to La Nina again after this winter, it would certainly bring you better luck. That's more or less what I had in mind when I meant interesting. You're gonna have low LCLs and if the WF gets far enough north, possibly low to mid 70s TDs. Not to mention shear. Besides...nobody should expect a lock for something severe...we're just talking about some aspects of this event. This may be more of a Delmarva and NJ deal. Can't wait for a PHL south tornado watch that barely produces while I'm struggling to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 LOL. Do you plan to go to tornado alley each year? If we can rapidly switch to La Nina again after this winter, it would certainly bring you better luck. Can't wait for a PHL south tornado watch that barely produces while I'm struggling to destabilize. GFS was a little unstable here on Saturday. Obviously, put that in the FWIW category when it's only Monday. Some other closed low scenarios produced a few tors. Notably this one. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us0724.php This isn't quite a peer reviewed paper, but it gets into some of the specifics. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/uwaosjournal/Volume9/AOS453/Hunter_Straus.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 LOL. Do you plan to go to tornado alley each year? If we can rapidly switch to La Nina again after this winter, it would certainly bring you better luck. I'd like to but it'll depend on work etc. Right now I have a job with lots of leave.. not sure that'll always be the case. Next yr might be up in the air for now. May also try a spot chase (fly out and back over a few days just to chase one setup). Some post el nino yrs have been great lately.. 03 and 10 in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1239 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012 ...DOWNBURST WINDS DETERMINED AS CAUSE OF DAMAGE NEAR SIDNEY... A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM HAS PRELIMINARILY DETERMINED THAT THE DAMAGE TRACK CAUSED BY A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE SIDNEY NY AREA ON SUNDAY WAS A RESULT OF DOWNBURST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN UP TO 85 MPH. ALTHOUGH PHOTOGRAPHS...AND VIDEO IMAGERY TAKEN DURING THE TIME OF THE STORM YESTERDAY INDICATED A LOWERING OF THE STORM CLOUD AND SOME ROTATION...THE DAMAGE ON THE GROUND WAS ONLY CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF STRAIGHT LINE DOWNBURST WINDS. THE TEAM CONTINUES TO SURVEY LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF SIDNEY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL HAVE A DETAILED REPORT LATER TODAY. Umm... I really am surprised by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Jeez you wouldn't have guessed based on that video. Is it possible for the thing to have maybe briefly touched down and perhaps the stronger part of the tornado caused the damage? Not all tornadoes have equal winds on opposite sides. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Saturday or Sunday might be interesting around here. Probably some heavy rains, but If we can get a little mid level drying...could be a few SVR thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Jeez you wouldn't have guessed based on that video. Is it possible for the thing to have maybe briefly touched down and perhaps the stronger part of the tornado caused the damage? Not all tornadoes have equal winds on opposite sides. Interesting. A quick moving tornado can often "drag" debris all in a similar direction as well. I'm surprised, baffled really. Somebody clearly looked at the data and agreed with the tornado reports and tagged it with the volume scan time and location based off the TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 A quick moving tornado can often "drag" debris all in a similar direction as well. I'm surprised, baffled really. Somebody clearly looked at the data and agreed with the tornado reports and tagged it with the volume scan time and location based off the TDS. Yeah true. Can the NWS based on the volume scan and that video still claim it may have been a possible tornado despite the damage pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Yeah true. Can the NWS based on the volume scan and that video still claim it may have been a possible tornado despite the damage pattern? They certainly can, but it appears that they've made their decision based on that PNS. They can be confirmed based off phone calls to EMs even. That video just seems so compelling to me, coupled with the radar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Thursday could be a decent tstm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Thursday could be a decent tstm day. NAH..E winds and onshore flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 NAH..E winds and onshore flow Wrong day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Thursday could be a decent tstm day. Yeah Thursday doesn't look all too bad. Looks like we'll at least have some weak height falls occurring between 18z-3z along with some slight cooling aloft. NAM does have moderate instability in place (although at this stage that doesn't mean much but certainly notable). While shear isn't overly impressive there is speed shear present, especially in the 600-300mb layer and the NAM does have some weak sfc waves moving through along a boundary...something to watch for increased llvl shear and veering winds. Mainly unidirectional flow though suggests we could probably see a few line segments and inverted-v profiles with good moisture present just above this feature right up to around 700mb along with some pretty steep llvl lapse rates...all of this would suggest a good wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Saturday coud rock as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I wonder if Friday afternoon will feature periods of heavy rainfall with perhaps some embedded storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Despite the shaky video, you can easily see the rotation in the clouds as well as what looks like dust/debris being lofted near the ground. Quite a stark difference from that "funnel" reported a week or so ago on the North Shore. Looks like incidental rotation not really associated with an updraft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Still looks like Saturday may be interesting as the WF tries to move north, but solar heating may be a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Thursday looks like a good severe wx day..Slight risk..and then warm front blows north on Friday setting us up for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Thursday looks like a good severe wx day..Slight risk..and then warm front blows north on Friday setting us up for Saturday I'm not sure how Thursday works out with a developing low to the south. They'll be some storms around, but not sure about lots of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I'm not sure how Thursday works out with a developing low to the south. They'll be some storms around, but not sure about lots of severe. I like the looks of Thursday with decent shear,high dews and decent Cape..Biggest threat should be wind gusts. Looks like even tomorrow there will be storms scattered about interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I like the looks of Thursday with decent shear,high dews and decent Cape..Biggest threat should be wind gusts. Looks like even tomorrow there will be storms scattered about interior Models are all over the place. GFS has little shear while the NAM as lots, especially north of I-90. I they'll be some storms, just not sure how widespread yet. CAPE probably will be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Event the evolution of this ULL is up ion the air. GFS still more progressive than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Models are all over the place. GFS has little shear while the NAM as lots, especially north of I-90. I they'll be some storms, just not sure how widespread yet. CAPE probably will be decent. Either way.. a return to last weekends's wx looks imminent for 3-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Either way.. a return to last weekends's wx looks imminent for 3-5 days The combo of heat and temps? No way...not even close. Even those dews may be modified with E-SE winds, especially away from the south coast. Maybe later Saturday and part of Sunday will feature the most humid weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The combo of heat and temps? No way...not even close. Even those dews may be modified with E-SE winds, especially away from the south coast. Maybe later Saturday and part of Sunday will feature the most humid weather. We'll agree to disagree. i think all of us have 70+ dews Thurs- Sun straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 We'll agree to disagree. i think all of us have 70+ dews Thurs- Sun straight That's different, but that is not last weekend when we had 91/74. I don't think all of us see those dews straight...especially near here and north. It just depends on where the WF is, but who really cares. It still will be muggy and probably rainy which will hold temps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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