CT Rain Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I think NY / PA look great and I am thinking this will be a moderate risk day for them with the potential for tornadoes (esp. if we get the degree of SRH 0-1km and LLJ the models currently are showing). While I agree that the timing sucks for the folks in the coastal plain, I do think this looks like a classic SLT risk day. Anything that can get going ahead of the cold front along the prefrontal trough could certainly go severe. Agreed. With heights falling all day we should being to remove any CIN relatively quickly in the day. Classic pre frontal trough to the lee of the Apps should provide enough convergence to start things up. The NAM does have 850mb winds >30 knots across all of CT/W Mass and N NJ by 21z Sunday so we'll be looking at some large hodographs. 500mb winds are a bit too weak though... seem to be displaced a bit too far to the NW right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Whooo another significant threat in just a little over a week for the NE states . Let's hope this one doesn't end with everyone at each others throats *cringe*. One of these has got to pan out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Agreed. With heights falling all day we should being to remove any CIN relatively quickly in the day. Classic pre frontal trough to the lee of the Apps should provide enough convergence to start things up. The NAM does have 850mb winds >30 knots across all of CT/W Mass and N NJ by 21z Sunday so we'll be looking at some large hodographs. 500mb winds are a bit too weak though... seem to be displaced a bit too far to the NW right now. 5 h temps? height falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 5 h temps? height falls? Siggy height falls for the time of year. 18z NAM is funny. Strong (for August) LLJ across NY/PA/W SNE but 500mb winds still pretty meh over us. I'd like to see the mid tropospheric flow stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I like the due s sfc flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 This appears to have a much greater tornado potential for areas from East OH into PA/NY into W MA, VT, NH then our event last Thursday , I think we could end up with a day 3 30% Slight later on, and end up getting a moderate risk out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 This appears to have a much greater tornado potential for areas from East OH into PA/NY into W MA, VT, NH then our event last Thursday , I think we could end up with a day 3 30% Slight later on, and end up getting a moderate risk out of this Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Agree its super early, but one would think the hudson valley could be a prime area with locally backing winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Hmmm. I'd like to see better CAPE before breaking out the heavy wording yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 its super early, but one would think the hudson valley could be a prime area with locally backing winds. Could be but at this point the best signal is west over N PA and central NY I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Sunday I will be just to the SW of Apalachin,NY......perfect spot ?? On the lake with my Wiz-approved 40 in hand. Suds and flying trees !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 W PA to SW NY, is a hot spot, not the hudson valley in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 00z NAM with 200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH across much of NY/PA on Sunday, pretty decent for being ~3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 W PA to SW NY, is a hot spot, not the hudson valley in this set up I still think the best area is NE of the Buffalo area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO OH/TN VALLEYS... ...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OH/TN VALLEYS... THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY TO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EARLY DAY TSTMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS COULD BE FACTORS...AN INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS OTHERWISE SEEMS PROBABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ WILL ACCOUNT FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD...BUT SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SEVERAL ORGANIZED SYSTEMS/CLUSTERS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A WEAKER SHEAR BUT MORE UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AND PERHAPS OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I think places like SYR/ART/ROC look pretty good for Sunday. I'm not excited south and east of ALB right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I think places like SYR/ART/ROC look pretty good for Sunday. I'm not excited south and east of ALB right now. I like these days coming up though. High CAPE low shear stuff. Probably collapsing core micros and Ginx rains. I mean, nothing widespread or anything..but can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I like these days coming up though. High CAPE low shear stuff. Probably collapsing core micros and Ginx rains. I mean, nothing widespread or anything..but can be fun. I'm a little meh on today. Heights rise pretty substantially ahead of the Great Lakes s/w. Subsidence may put the lid on convection today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I'm a little meh on today. Heights rise pretty substantially ahead of the Great Lakes s/w. Subsidence may put the lid on convection today. Yeah today is probably more scattered, but I was thinking tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 That Albany sounding is better than I expected this morning. However, those conditions may lift more northeast than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I don't know...maybe today is a little more interesting than we think in areas maybe north of the pike or near I-90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 That Albany sounding is better than I expected this morning. However, those conditions may lift more northeast than east. Look at OKX. Impressive. almost 3000 j/kg of sbcape if you modify it to 90/73. BUF and IAD not bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I don't know...maybe today is a little more interesting than we think in areas maybe north of the pike or near I-90? Yeah could be. Soundings are impressive without much CINH to be honest. I never like the synoptic look though when heights rise pretty substantially through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Looks like I'll be coming home to a severe outbreak for us over the weekend. Only good thing about going home tomorriw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Look at OKX. Impressive. almost 3000 j/kg of sbcape if you modify it to 90/73. BUF and IAD not bad either. OKX has a KI of 16. Seems like some mid level dry air. Weird to see such high dews with that low of a KI. It will probably moisten a bit as updrafts try to moisten the atmosphere there. But, I wonder if that is an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 mid-levels aren't too bad just west of us...that pocket of air was out over the eastern lakes yesterday and advecting eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 mid-levels aren't too bad just west of us...that pocket of air was out over the eastern lakes yesterday and advecting eastward. I was expecting a horrible looking OKX sounding based on Taunton's AFD, but it looked better than half of our forecasted severe outbreaks..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 nam forecast soundings for this afternoon are pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 nam forecast soundings for this afternoon are pretty decent. Yeah not bad at all. The NAM keeps enough CIN at the coast to preclude storm development but inland it definitely removes the CIN with a good deal of CAPE. Weak vertical shear means nothing widespread but microbursts certainly possible. With 500mb subsidence/ridging I'm not sure how widespread storms will be. Look at 6z NAM for tomorrow... very respectable CAPE!!!! Big fat CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Yeah not bad at all. The NAM keeps enough CIN at the coast to preclude storm development but inland it definitely removes the CIN with a good deal of CAPE. Weak vertical shear means nothing widespread but microbursts certainly possible. With 500mb subsidence/ridging I'm not sure how widespread storms will be. Look at 6z NAM for tomorrow... very respectable CAPE!!!! Big fat CAPE. Yeah I was looking at Tippy FOUS and fell off my seat when I saw the LI of -10. Might be a little much, but swamp azz dews will add to the CAPE no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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