OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That implies some marine tainting here.....don't think so. This also implies that the GFS would be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 First fun clown map of the season! well it's showing the NW Connecticut screwjob that's been going on for the last year or so, so chances are it'll verify exactly like that. I think I got 22" of snow last year and my yearly average is 62" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wait, the ensemble was that intense?! Yep...I wouldn't be surprised if there was some even further west members in there given how close the ensemble mean is to the Op GFS. We know how it is...you can't have your cake and eat it too. Since the PV shifted so far west...it opens up the door for an earlier phase and even further west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yep...I wouldn't be surprised if there was some even further west members in there given how close the ensemble mean is to the Op GFS. We know how it is...you can't have your cake and eat it too. Since the PV shifted so far west...it opens up the door for an earlier phase and even further west track. it basically has 3 members that run it over or west of the cape (some way up into new england). a handful are completely OTS whiffs and a couple are scrapers/ENE specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think there is a decent shot that the EURO comes a little further west than some of us in ene would like.... i would not worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well it's showing the NW Connecticut screwjob that's been going on for the last year or so, so chances are it'll verify exactly like that. I think I got 22" of snow last year and my yearly average is 62" I'd feel ok if I were you at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12Z GFS at 108 hrs looks nice for the Pats game Sunday night - Snow Bowl Part 2! Break out the popcorn. I will be all set as long as Pete drives me to the game in his studded tire Jetta... otherwise it might be scary (fun once I get there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yep...I wouldn't be surprised if there was some even further west members in there given how close the ensemble mean is to the Op GFS. We know how it is...you can't have your cake and eat it too. Since the PV shifted so far west...it opens up the door for an earlier phase and even further west track. Still at D4.5 -5 and sub 990mb is impressive agreement considering all - wow. Exciting solution no kidding - euro do out shortly and am curious if it thows a whiplash bone back into something more exotic. It's mystifying the ECM would do that, if it does, considering it's typical bias of being...well, ridiculously accurate inside of 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 i would not worry. I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm worried, but I do feel it's become a bit more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The NAM 84 hr 300mb jet and upper level orientation might be the best map I have seen since yesterdays big MECS solution. After seeing the 12z GFS bring advisory level snows into the area--one can now assume (instead of extrapolating or guessing) that the NAM would be a pretty sizeable hit at least for the coast given the fact that it's a good bit more amplified than the GFS. The NAM has a 70+kt 500mb jet streak nearing the base of the trough at 84 hours--almost no doubt in my mind that this run would tug the surface low up the coast. Take it for what it's worth given the NAM's history at this stage, but it sure is pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think there is a decent shot that the EURO comes a little further west than some of us in ene would like.... Yes I agree.. IF the NM and Idaho S/Ws phase well this could come way west. The Euro didn't phase them at 00z. We need the Idaho s/w to speed up. If they phase strongly though I see no reason why this won't track right over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm worried, but I do feel it's become a bit more plausible. And when the EURO shows a scraper..you'll be worried that it will be too far east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And when the EURO shows a scraper..you'll be worried that it will be too far east again. Probably, but it would depend on what took place at H5 and how it arrived at such a soloution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm worried, but I do feel it's become a bit more plausible. Wouldn't it be typical,with the way things have been going for us since last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm worried, but I do feel it's become a bit more plausible. If the PV evolution goes as modeled, yeah there's a way that this could end up farther west than you'd like. But that would require a much earlier phase, and since we're starting with such a broad trough, I don't think it could come together quick enough for a track, for instance, over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm worried, but I do feel it's become a bit more plausible. ---> ---> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 lol...18" Nice shift this morning on all of the models. I was worried when the 6z NAM had a weak sauce southern stream. Game on now. looks like 20 to me....although I'll be in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes I agree.. IF the NM and Idaho S/Ws phase well this could come way west. The Euro didn't phase them at 00z. We need the Idaho s/w to speed up. If they phase strongly though I see no reason why this won't track right over SNE It's all about the timing of the phase, how much of a phase, and the strength of the southern stream. The GFS evolution is perfectly reasonable since the initial trough is so broad and the phase is so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Probably, but it would depend on what took place at H5 and how it arrived at such a soloution. You already know what H5 will look like.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Poor KGAY and Scooter. From a whiff east to mixing issues. Does the North Shore having mixing issues with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It is interesting the CMC finds the wherewithal to keep the system that progressive after 96 hours with all that blocking up N. UKIE should be hoot - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 You already know what H5 will look like.......... :lol: 1969 with a side of 1978, undoubtedley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like there are 3 ensemble members that wrap this thing up into a rainstorm for New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like there are 3 ensemble members that wrap this thing up into a rainstorm for New England yeah they are the reason the mean is so ridiculously far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah they are the reason the mean is so ridiculously far west To be fair, you can't discount the three members that are so far south and east Bermuda is in danger of being in the CCB, those skew the mean just as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah they are the reason the mean is so ridiculously far west There's also only three that take it OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 :lol: 1969 with a side of 1978, undoubtedley. The former definitly came to mind....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 To be fair, you can't discount the three members that are so far south and east Bermuda is in danger of being in the CCB, those skew the mean just as well. If you are doing an average..I believe stronger and further west will skew the average more than weak and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 To be fair, you can't discount the three members that are so far south and east Bermuda is in danger of being in the CCB, those skew the mean just as well. oh i know. i wasn't implying that. i'm just saying if you remove them, the picture is quite a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.