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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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Rearing its head again....

RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS

FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE

TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE

RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A

SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST

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Guys just off the top of my head keep in mind two things with storms that bomb off the coast in December.

- These December bombers seem to love to form those monster mesoscale frontal bands just inland off the coast that can sometimes double, or even triple surrounding totals.

- As far as the mixing, heavy snow bands produced can overwhelm the warmer low level temps and bring heavy, wet snow all the way to the surface. I would say with how much this low may be strengthening, this may be a distinct possibility.

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Some have mentioned that once the relevant shortwaves entered the US they would be much better sampled and it appears as if this may be true.

Definitely seems right. Euro had a hiccup and corrected for 2 runs now with everything on land. And with Will saying the synoptic pattern should prevent it going much further west I think nearly everyone should feel fantastic right now. Finally!

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Rearing its head again....

RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS

FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE

TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE

RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A

SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST

Thundersnow for Wiz

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I don't think you are looking all that bad yet...I am surprised at how much the Euro has trended in two runs but even in that solution you still see snow. Its going to be hard for it to get much further west given the synoptic pattern...unless the models are like half a wavelength off.

Will... you mentioned this last night after the 00z Euro. At this point I wouldnt rule anything out..

Snowicane II :)

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Will be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles are any further west than the GFS ensembles were. I think Scott mentioned the GFS ensembles were still 60-70 miles east of the BM. Given how the Euro was further west than the GFS I would think it's ensembles would be a bit further west than the GFS...unless some members are showing some screwy eastward track.

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Will be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles are any further west than the GFS ensembles were. I think Scott mentioned the GFS ensembles were still 60-70 miles east of the BM. Given how the Euro was further west than the GFS I would think it's ensembles would be a bit further west than the GFS...unless some members are showing some screwy eastward track.

I'm curious as to when the mets up here decide to put less weight into the ensembles (minus the SREFs). We're getting into d3-4 now and the resolution of the op models is much higher than their ensemble members. I'm not saying to discount them yet at all because I still think it's too early for that. But where is that threshold for everyone?
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I'm curious as to when the mets up here decide to put less weight into the ensembles (minus the SREFs). We're getting into d3-4 now and the resolution of the op models is much higher than their ensemble members. I'm not saying to discount them yet at all because I still think it's too early for that. But where is that threshold for everyone?

Since I never really used the ensembles much until just basically the past few weeks and don't really know much about the use of them at the different time ranges I really don't know when to start putting less stock in them...but it's nice to know that inside of D3-4 that the resolution of the OP models is much higher...wasn't aware of that.

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