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12/19-12/20 threat


CoastalWx

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Its all fun now........... :scooter:

No doubt! And hopefully it continues to become more and more fun!

Given what we saw with the 12z runs so far I would think the 12z euro is either similar with a westward shift or status quo from it's 0z runs last night. It would have to have large differences aloft to show an eastward shift.

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BOX issued before the 12Z was in ....

DON/T WANT TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR

VERIFICATION AND THE FACT THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT

FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS GIVEN RETROGRADING UPPER AIR

PATTEN SUPPORTING A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION THE

MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO BY THE ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE

AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH

INCREASED BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW

OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. NEVERTHELESS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE

PATIENT AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO BEGIN CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION BEFORE

WE CAN PROVIDE SPECIFICS REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhyGlGgXMxY&start=45

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