12/19-12/20 threat

[OKpowdah]

I think we can start to at least build confidence that this will not be OTS. Either a Cape-scrape or a MECS. One way or another somebody gets something.

[ChrisM]

JMA swing and a miss? lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we'll see the Euro be a little more robust with the energy in the trough, but still a later phase, ending up as a bomb south of Nova Scotia

I wouldn't be suprised if it came a bit west of the GFS.....this is unequivocally game on in my mind now.....though I could certainly still see a more moderate ene centric outcome.

[earthlight]

That was a disgusting shift west on the ensembles..like 200+ miles, and the H5 was ridiculously more amplified as well. There are going to be a few major weenie solutions on the individuals.

[CoastalWx]

I still believe the Euro is going to be very late to this party...may even go east again at 12Z.

My guess is that it won't go east, but I could be wrong. I also don't expect it to show what the GFS is showing....but again maybe it does.

[PWMan]

I'm always suspicious of these late-developing, long-duration solutions. Beyond that, it's gotten to the point here where I can't imagine how it could ever snow. I have to head out for a couple hours, and fully expect to return to wailing and gnashing of teeth over a disappointing Euro run.

[earthlight]

By the way the biggest difference between the ensemble mean and the OP is that the mean has more energy from the plains phased into the trough base by hour 84--which would help the upper level configuration to bring more precip back to all areas involved.

[OKpowdah]

My guess is that it won't go east, but I could be wrong. I also don't expect it to show what the GFS is showing....but again maybe it does.

[ChrisM]

there has to be some HV runners on the individual members lol

[CoastalWx]

Like I said last night, the strength of the SW is far, far more easily correctable than the evoloution of the PV, especially prior to the SWs arrival on the N American shore.

Yeah agreed. PV's are usually stable, but a small shift in that can have a large outcome in sensible wx. I won't be around for the euro, but hopefully it's better than 00z.

[OKpowdah]

I'm always suspicious of these late-developing, long-duration solutions. Beyond that, it's gotten to the point here where I can't imagine how it could ever snow. I have to head out for a couple hours, and fully expect to return to wailing and gnashing of teeth over a disappointing Euro run.

I'm always suspicious when a model shows that I get snow

[CoastalWx]

In other words, who knows...lol, but I don't think it will be east of 00z.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dr No will have a say within an hour or so. Lets hope it has that same vortmax developing a little earlier, than what it showed at 00z.

Euro should be 50- 75miles west

[correnjim1]

Well I think we'd be fine as of now. I looked at the soundings.

Cool,thanks.

[MaineJayhawk]

I wouldn't be suprised if it came a bit west of the GFS.....this is unequivocally game on in my mind now.....though I could certainly still see a more moderate ene centric outcome.

I expect it to come west, closer to the current GFS, but not that far west. I'm actually still thinking scraper for this.

[moneypitmike]

I'm glad I refrained from melting down after the EURO last night; the fact that the EURO changed so markedly with respect to the N stream told me all I needed to know about that stability of that whiff scenario, though I would REALLY like to see the EURO display a hit in a bit over an hr.

You should have been leaping for joy after last night's EC. It had major, major shifts from it's 12z run. No difference on the end result as noted. But it begged the question as to what was going on. Perhaps these early 12z returns are giving the answers to that question.

14.6/3

[earthlight]

Some major improvements on the CMC as well...pretty ominous 96-102 hr H5 and surface depiction. Pretty dramatic jumps on the guidance since last night..the northern stream uncertainty is just disgusting.

[shawnmov]

12Z GFS at 108 hrs looks nice for the Pats game Sunday night - Snow Bowl Part 2! Break out the popcorn.

[OKpowdah]

First fun clown map of the season!

[earthlight]

Now that we have seen some other guidance, we can look back at the 12z NAM's H5 depiction and get a better idea other than "guessing", since we have seen other modeling schemes and their handling of the situation. That being said, the NAM is likely heading towards a hit and possibly one slightly west of the GFS, given it's H5 orientation being further west and more amplified as well as more phased. It's all for naught being that it's the 84 hour NAM--but it's something else to throw in there.

Here's the NAM

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_12z/f84.gif

GFS

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f84.gif

[dryslot]

I'm always suspicious when a model shows that I get snow

I'm always suspicious when i am in the bullseye 5 days out......

[dendrite]

First fun clown map of the season!

lol...18"

Nice shift this morning on all of the models. I was worried when the 6z NAM had a weak sauce southern stream. Game on now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

First fun clown map of the season!

That implies some marine tainting here.....don't think so.

[MaineJayhawk]

lol...18"

Nice shift this morning on all of the models. I was worried when the 6z NAM had a weak sauce southern stream. Game on now.

It would be one heck of a way to get the nasty taste of 2009/2010 out of our collective mouths.

[amarshall]

First fun clown map of the season!

[skierinvermont]

Well the GFS is certainly helpful with the placement of the PV.. gives this thing plenty of room to ride the coast.

One thing that worried me though is that the Idaho s/w slowed down which starts to create too much spacing between that s/w and the NM s/w. If it slows down too much they won't interact. That's why the 00z Euro didn't have a storm last night. The GFS trended slower with the Idaho s/w from 00z to 06z and especially to 12z... in that regard it is trending towards the Euro which is not good. It probably doesn't matter though.. if the Euro speeds that s/w up at all it will be a massive hit.

[Typhoon Tip]

...

Wait, the ensemble was that intense?!

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think there is a decent shot that the EURO comes a little further west than some of us in ene would like....

[tavwtby]

First fun clown map of the season!

I'll take 6-8 at this point!

[dryslot]

Its funny how there has been a lot of positives today with all the 12z models so far, But 1 model really controls this board and could take all that optimisim away with 1 cycle.......